Almost all “super-investors”, including Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and Michael Burry, have released 13F reports outlining changes to their portfolios for Q3 2024. Despite the bull market, “super-investors” regularly sell more stocks than they buy. The largest reductions were in the financials, technology and industrials sectors. The largest purchases were made in the consumer and basic goods sectors. Warren Buffett, who has record cash of $320 billion, sold another 25 per cent of Apple shares, 23 per cent of Bank of America shares and almost his entire stake in media giant SiriusXM. He shed as much as 13 per cent of his portfolio during the quarter, and this is the seventh consecutive quarter in which he has been on the sellers' side, which may indicate signs of an overvalued market. Michael Burry , known for predicting the 2008 crisis, increased positions in Chinese technology companies such as JD.com, Baidu and Alibaba, which gained in value after China announced its stimulus package. At the end of Q3, Chinese stocks accounted for 65.5 per cent of his portfolio, but these investments are facing pressure from US sanctions. In the coming week, we will learn the final inflation readings from the Eurozone and the UK for October. We will also find out whether Germany's economy is emerging from two years of economic stagnation.
Table of contents:
- Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) monthly (October)
- UK consumer price index (CPI) monthly (October)
- Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)
Tuesday, 19.11, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) monthly (October)
We know from preliminary data that annual inflation in the euro area rose to 2 per cent in October 2024, up from 1.7 per cent in September, exceeding forecasts of 1.9 per cent. Inflation shot up, against the European Central Bank's target. Energy prices fell more slowly in October than the month before, while prices of food, alcohol, tobacco and manufactured goods rose faster while inflation in the services sector stabilised at 3.9 per cent.
Analysts forecast a confirmation of the euro area CPI inflation reading of 2 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR.
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN
Wednesday, 20.11, 8:00 CET, UK consumer price index (CPI) monthly (October)
Annual inflation in the UK fell to 1.7 per cent in September 2024, the lowest level since April 2021. The fall in inflation was mainly due to a drop in transport prices. The price of petrol fell by 10.9 per cent year-on-year. The prices of housing, utilities and furniture continued to decline, while the cost of leisure and culture and restaurants rose. Inflation in services fell to 4.9 per cent, the lowest level since May 2022.
Analysts forecast that October's reading will illustrate another rise in UK CPI inflation to 2 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on GBP.
Impact: EUR/GBP, USD/GBP, GBP/PLN
Friday, 22.11, 8:00 CET, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)
Germany's economy alternately grows and shrinks every quarter. From the preliminary reading, we know that Germany's GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in Q3 2024 qoq, rebounding after a contraction of 0.3 per cent in Q2. Growth in government and household spending is responsible for the rebound. On an annualised basis, GDP fell by 0.2 per cent, marking the sixth consecutive quarter without growth. The government forecasts a continuation of the 0.2 per cent contraction in GDP, in 2024, following a 0.3 per cent decline in 2023. Despite difficulties, such as high energy costs and weak external demand, a recovery is forecasted for 2025, with GDP growth of 1.1 per cent, driven by an increase in private consumption and a resumption of industrial exports.
Analysts forecast Germany's GDP growth rate to remain at 0.2 per cent qoq.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR.
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN
Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
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