Next week to watch (28.10-1.11.2024)

25.10.2024 16:04|Analyst Team, Conotoxia Ltd.

With 10 days left until the US presidential election, volatility in financial markets is likely to increase. Polls in the major states, or ‘swing states’, are deadlocked. The exceptions are Arizona and Georgia, where Donald Trump has a slight lead, within the statistical error. Bookmakers estimate his chances of winning at 60 per cent.  Historically, the dollar's behaviour during election months has been mixed, with average gains of 1 percent. Forecasts indicate that this year could be a particularly weak year for the dollar, especially in the context of possible interest rate cuts by the Fed. There is a noticeable correlation between gold prices and election periods; gold typically loses value 77 per cent of the time during these quarters. Analysts predict that the price of gold could rise until the election, but then it could start to fall, ending the year above $2,500 per ounce.

Table of contents:

  1. German gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)
  2. US gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)
  3. US monthly unemployment rate (October)

Wednesday, 30.10, 11:00 CET, German gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)

The German economy contracted by 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024, according to preliminary estimates, following growth of 0.2 per cent in Q1. Private consumption fell by 0.2 per cent and business capital expenditure declined. Net trade lowered growth by 0.1 percentage points, with exports falling and imports stagnating. Government spending, on the other hand, increased by 1.0 per cent, reversing an earlier decline of 0.1 per cent. On an annual basis, the economy was unchanged, following a 0.1 per cent decline in Q1.

Analysts' consensus is for another quarter-on-quarter decline in GDP of 0.1 per cent. Which would again signal a move into a technical recession.

GDP chart Germany

Source: Tradingeconomics

A higher than expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower reading could act bearishly on the EUR.

Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN

Wednesday, 30.10, 14:30 CET, US gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)

The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3 per cent in Q2 2024, in line with the previous estimate and higher than the 1.6 per cent growth in Q1. Federal spending and imports increased, while consumer spending, fixed asset investment and exports declined slightly. 

Analysts forecast GDP growth of 3 per cent per annum again in the third quarter of this year.

graph of US GDP

Source: Tradingeconomics.com

A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD.

Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN

Friday, 1.11, 14:30 CET, US monthly unemployment rate (October)

In September 2024, the US unemployment rate fell from 4.2 per cent to 4.1 per cent, surprising the market, which had expected a deterioration in the labour market. The number of unemployed decreased by 281,000 and employment increased by 430,000, with the labour force participation rate stable at 62.7 per cent.

Analysts' consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.1 per cent in October this year.

graph US unemployment

Source: Tradingeconomics.com

A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD.

Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN

 

Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)

The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.23% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 

Trading on CFDs is provided by Conotoxia Ltd. (CySEC no.336/17), which has the right to use the Conotoxia trademark.

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76.23% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.23% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Trading on CFDs is provided by Conotoxia Ltd. (CySEC no.336/17), which has the right to use the Conotoxia trademark.