Following the US election, financial markets reacted sharply: the USD/PLN exchange rate even rose to 4.09 and bitcoin reached a record high of USD 76 000. The S&P 500 index approached 6,000 points and Tesla shares gained 18 per cent since the election. At the same time, gold fell by 1 per cent, slipping below US$2,700 per ounce. What lies ahead in the coming months after Donald Trump's victory? In the cryptocurrency market, the dominance of bets on the rise of bitcoin is increasing. These are backed by ETFs, which have accumulated bitcoin worth more than US$22 billion. Currently, ETFs hold 3.3 per cent of bitcoin's total supply, and investors expect the price to rise above USD 80 000. In the Invext.Conotoxia analysts' base case scenario, we also expect the price to rise and the year could end at record levels for the most popular cryptocurrency. Gold may continue to cheapen, as historically its price has fallen 77 per cent of the time in an election quarter. In the base case scenario, Invext.Conotoxia analysts estimated that the election could be a turning point where the gold price starts to fall. Nevertheless, the year is expected to end above $2,500 per ounce, which could provide strong support for the gold price. The dollar may be strengthening thanks to Trump's protectionist policies, although the market is waiting for possible Fed action that could moderate this trend. The election also favours growth in the stock market, which ended election quarters on a positive note 77 per cent of the time. Invext.Conotoxia analysts in the base case scenario assume that the indices.
Table of contents:
- German consumer price index (CPI) monthly (October)
- US consumer price index (CPI) monthly (October)
- UK gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)
- Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)
Tuesday, 12.11, 8:00 CET, German consumer price index (CPI) monthly (October)
From the preliminary reading, we know that annual inflation in Germany rose to 2 per cent in October 2024, the highest level in three months. Service and food prices in particular rose faster and commodity prices rebounded, while the fall in energy costs was smaller due to high prices a year ago.
Analysts forecast a confirmation of the German CPI inflation reading of 2 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR.
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN
Wednesday, 13.11, 14:30 CET, US consumer price index (CPI) monthly (October)
US annual inflation slowed in September 2024 to 2.4 per cent, the lowest level since February 2021. Housing price growth slowed, energy costs fell, but natural gas prices rebounded, and food and transportation inflation accelerated.
Analysts forecast, another rise in US CPI inflation to 2.6 per cent in October.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD.
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN
Thursday, 14.11, 8:00 CET, UK gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)
The UK economy grew by 0.7 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, reaching its highest level of growth since the third quarter of 2022. Investment, household and government spending, however, increased less than expected, exports fell more sharply and imports accelerated. The UK government raised taxes by £40 billion ($52 billion), focusing on wealthy citizens, foreign residents and companies. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, in Labour's first budget after her election victory, announced, among other things, a tax on inherited pensions, higher capital gains tax, an end to public school relief and an increase in National Insurance contributions for employers. It has also introduced £100 billion of new investment to support the future growth of the economy.
Analysts forecast, a sustained 0.6 per cent year-on-year growth rate in UK GDP.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on GBP.
Impact: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/PLN, UK100
Friday, 15.11, 00:50 CET, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q3)
On a quarterly basis, Japanese GDP grew by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2024, but recorded a year-on-year decline of 1 per cent. This was the strongest quarterly growth in a year, driven by rising wages and a recovery in the automotive sector. Private consumption grew at a slightly slower pace, with business investment increasing by 0.8 per cent q-o-q. Government spending increased by 0.1 per cent q/q, while net trade fell slightly as exports grew more slowly than imports.
Analysts forecast further stagnation in Japan, with quarterly GDP growth of just 0.2 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the JPY, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the JPY.
Impact: EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, Nikkei225
Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
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