The Żabka Group, which manages over 10,000 shops, earlier this week announced details of its stock market debut, a particularly high-profile topic among Polish investors. This will be one of the largest debuts on the Polish capital market, and our team of analysts took a close look at the attractiveness of the Group's offering. We also analysed the situation and valuations of three particularly important global stock markets: United States, China and Taiwan. We have tried to assess whether there is an overvaluation of equities and what trends we will observe in the near future. In the coming week, US CPI and PPI inflation data will be particularly important. On Wednesday, we will also learn about FOMC members' discussions at the September meeting, which may help to understand the pace of further interest rate cuts.
Table of contents:
- FOMC meeting minutes
- US consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)
- US producer price index (PPI) monthly (September)
Wednesday 9.10, 20:00 CET, FOMC meeting minutes
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in July discussed the economic outlook ahead of the first interest rate cut in the cycle, in September. Already at that time, policymakers noted a further slowdown in economic growth and inflation, with the expectation that price dynamics would return to around 2 per cent by 2026. Inflation and employment risks are beginning to level off, although some factors, such as supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, may increase inflationary pressures. Risks to financial stability, including cyber-attack risks and those related to the commercial real estate market, remain significant. Most participants felt that with inflation continuing to fall, policy easing would be possible at future meetings.
A more hawkish tone to the latest ‘minutes’ could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a more dovish tone could be bearish for the USD.
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN
Czwartek, 10.10, 14:30 CET, indeks cen konsumpcyjnych w Stanach Zjednoczonych (CPI) miesięcznie (wrzesień)
The US annual inflation rate fell to 2.5 per cent in August this year, the lowest level since February 2021 and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Energy costs, including gasoline and gas, declined significantly, as did food, transport and car prices. Increases, however, were recorded in the shelter and clothing categories. The monthly CPI rose by 0.2 per cent, in line with expectations.
Analysts' consensus forecasts that disinflation of the US CPI will continue to advance to 2.3 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD.
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN
Friday, 11.10, 14:30 CET, US producer price index (PPI) monthly (September)
In August this year, producer inflation - the increase in the price of goods straight from factories and the costs incurred by companies - was 1.7 per cent year-on-year in the US. This is the lowest level in six months, down from 2.1 per cent in July (after downward revision) and below market expectations of 1.8 per cent.
Analysts' consensus is for US PPI inflation to fall to 1.3 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD.
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN
Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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