The debut of the Żabka group, which we wrote about in our previous articles, does not appear to have been successful. Although it was one of the largest debuts in recent years, it did not achieve the significant success seen with similar IPOs. The return on the day of the debut was 0 per cent and the share price is currently almost 5 per cent below the offer price. The third quarter earnings season is underway. So far, 63 per cent of companies have performed better than forecasts. Companies from the financial sector have performed particularly well. In the coming week, Alphabet (Google), Tesla and Amazon, among others, will publish their reports. From the economic data, we will also learn about the October reading of the US manufacturing and services PMIs and the Bank of Canada's decision on a possible interest rate cut.
Table of contents:
Wednesday, 23.10, 15:45 CET, Canada's interest rate decision
In September 2024, the Bank of Canada cut the main interest rate by 25 bps to 4.25 per cent, the third consecutive cut after 10 months of holding the rate at 5 per cent. The decision was argued on the basis of excess supply in the economy, which was putting downward pressure on inflation. The bank also pointed to a slowing labour market.
Analysts' consensus is for another 50bp cut in interest rates in Canada, to 3.75 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics
A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for CAD, while a lower-than-expected rate could act bearishly on CAD.
Impact: USD/CAD, EUR/CAD
Thursday, 24.10, 15:45 CET, US economic leading indicators (S&P Global PMI) monthly (October)
In September 2024, the S&P Global US Services PMI fell to 55.2 and the Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.3, but the two sectors show different trends. The services sector continues to grow, albeit at a slightly slower pace, with strong growth in new orders, but firms are holding back on hiring due to rising costs. In the manufacturing sector, which recorded its third month of decline, production and orders fell sharply due to weakened demand and political uncertainty. Industrial employment fell at the fastest rate since 2010. Despite this, companies in both sectors raised prices and there was a slight optimism in manufacturing due to the expected recovery after the election.
There is currently no established consensus on the latest PMI reading.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD.
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN
Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
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