The main US S&P 500 index has returned to near its historic highs. In contrast, Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which was hit hard during ‘Black Monday’, has gained more than 23 per cent from its low in just two weeks. This may suggest that investors have returned to ‘Risk ON’ mode and have started buying risky assets again, including cryptocurrencies, among others. The NBP increased its purchases of gold, becoming the largest buyer globally in the second quarter of this year. Gold has gained 21 per cent since the start of the year, outperforming many key assets. The rise in bullion prices is mainly driven by central bank purchases, which are hedging against a possible recession and geopolitical uncertainty. The coming week will see final Q2 GDP data for Germany, the US and Poland, which will help assess the risk of a global recession. The week will conclude with Eurozone inflation data for August. These may influence the pace of interest rate cuts by the ECB.
Table of contents:
- Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)
- Poland's gross domestic product (GDP) in quarterly terms (Q2)
- US gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)
- Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (August)
Tuesday, 27.08, 8:00 a.m. CET, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)
Preliminary data show that the German economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1 per cent (q/q) in the second quarter of 2024. The decline is mainly due to lower domestic investment, influenced by high interest rates. On an annual basis, the economy also contracted by 0.1 per cent, marking the fifth consecutive quarter without growth. The European Commission forecasts that the German economy will grow by 0.1 per cent in 2024, although investment and exports will remain low.
Analysts' consensus forecasts a 0.1 per cent fall in GDP in the second quarter.
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Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR.
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN
Thursday, 29.08, 10:00 CET, Poland's gross domestic product (GDP) in quarterly terms (Q2)
Preliminary data show that in the second quarter of 2024, non-seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 3.2 per cent in real terms year-on-year, compared to a decline of 0.6 per cent in the corresponding period of 2023. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of GDP growth, indicating that the Polish economy, despite a noticeable slowdown in Europe, continues to develop dynamically.
Analysts' consensus is to confirm Poland's GDP growth at 3.2 per cent year-on-year.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the PLN, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the PLN.
Impact: EUR/PLN, USD/PLN
Thursday, 29.08, 14:30 CET, US gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)
The US economy grew by 2.8 per cent in Q2 2024, beating forecasts and the Q1 result (1.4 per cent). Consumer spending grew, especially on cars and fuel, although spending on services slowed somewhat. Business investment increased, but residential investment declined. Government increased spending, mainly on defence. However, international trade held back growth as imports grew faster than exports.
Analysts' consensus is for US GDP growth to remain at 2.8 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD.
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN
Friday, 30.08, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (August)
Annual inflation in the euro area rose to 2.6 per cent in July 2024 from 2.5 per cent in June, beating market expectations. Energy costs rose sharply, while inflation in industrial goods remained stable. However, food, alcohol and tobacco inflation declined. Among the zone's largest economies, inflation was highest in France (2.7 per cent) and Germany (2.6 per cent) and lowest in Italy (1.6 per cent).
Analysts' consensus is for CPI inflation in the euro area to fall to 2.3 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR.
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN
Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
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