When watching the economic data for next week, we will look particularly at Germany and the United States, which are among the most potent Western as well as global economies. Furthermore, the Q1 earnings reporting period has begun, with many large companies reporting next week.
Tuesday 25.04. 14:00 GMT, US CB Consumer Confidence (April)
Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures how much consumers believe the economy will prosper. It's an important indicator because it can help predict how much consumers will spend on purchases, which in turn may affect the economy's overall health. If the indicator is high, it may mean that consumers are more optimistic in their forecasts, which usually leads to increased spending. The previous reading was 104.2, with a forecast of 101. The current forecast is 104.2. It has rebounded from the low confidence caused by the Covid-19 pandemic but has not yet reached the high confidence levels of 2018, possibly due to the high uncertainty surrounding inflation and interest rates.
Source: MacroMicro.me
Higher than expected reading may have a bullish effect on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD.
Impact: USD
Thursday 27.04. 12:30 GMT, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ (Q1)
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an indicator that measures the value of all goods and services produced in a country during a year, after accounting for inflation. Its measurements reflect the economy's overall health and are used as a measure of its activity. In other words, GDP is the main indicator of the total value of national output over a given period. As GDP rises, employment and incomes of the population tend to grow, which affects the country's prosperity level.
The previous result was 2.6%, below the forecast of 2.7%. The current forecast is 2.0%. Recent differences are relatively small compared to the last few years. Strong fluctuations were in the second half of 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Recent results and the forecast point to a slight slowdown in the economy. This may be due to the Fed's policy tightening, which means that it is working and that future rate hikes may slow down.
Source: Ycharts.com
Higher than expected reading may have a bullish effect on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD.
Impact: USD
Friday 28.04. 07:55 GMT, Germany Unemployment Change (April)
The German Unemployment Change is a measure that refers to the change in the number of unemployed people in Germany over the previous month. In other words, this measure shows whether the number of unemployed people in Germany has increased or decreased in absolute terms compared with the previous month. It is an important indicator for economists, politicians and business people who monitor the labour market situation to understand better the factors affecting employment and unemployment in the country. This information is used to make decisions about economic policy and government programmes to reduce unemployment and improve the labour market.
The previous month saw an increase in unemployment by 16,000 people. This was well above expectations, as 3,000 had been forecast. The current volatility in unemployment is relatively low. The most recent peak in unemployment was recorded in June 2022 (an increase of 131 000 unemployed persons). Since then, unemployment growth has gradually declined and even turned negative for two months before rising again in February 2023.
Source: tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading may have a negative/bearish effect on the EUR, while lower-than-expected reading may have a positive/bullish effect on the EUR.
Impact: EUR
Friday 28.04. 12:00 GMT, Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (April)
The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that tracks changes in the cost of goods and services that consumers buy in Germany. In short, the CPI helps to monitor inflation or the rise in the overall price level in the market. The index is structured to reflect consumer spending on various products and services such as food, housing, energy, transport, financial services, medical services, etc. With this information, economists, politicians and business people can better understand the factors affecting prices in the market and changes in consumer behaviour. This helps make economic policy decisions, such as setting interest rates, taxes and government spending, which affect the health of a country's economy.
The latest result was in line with the forecast at 7.4%. The current forecast is 7.3%. At the turn of the last few months, a slow descent from the peak can be observed. Such a trend may indicate that anti-inflationary policies are working and that the eurozone countries are returning to the inflation target.
Source: Ycharts.com
Higher than expected reading may have a bullish effect on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR.
Impact: EUR
Stocks to watch
Coca-Cola (KO) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 03/2023. Forecast: 0.6465. Positive earnings surprise in 9 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Monday, April 24, before the market opens.
Microsoft (MSFT) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 03/2023. Forecast: 2.24. Positive earnings surprise in 9 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Tuesday, April 25, after the market closes.
Alphabet A (GOOGL) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 03/2023. Forecast: 1.08. Positive earnings surprise in 6 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Tuesday, April 25.
Visa A (V) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 03/2023. Forecast: 1.98. Positive earnings surprise in 10 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Tuesday, April 25, after the market closes.
Meta Platforms (META) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 03/2023. Forecast: 2.02. Positive earnings surprise in 5 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Wednesday, April 26, after the market closes.
General Dynamics (GD) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 03/2023. Forecast: 2.59. Positive earnings surprise in 9 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Wednesday, April 26, before the market opens.
Amazon.com (AMZN) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 03/2023. Forecast: 0.2057. Positive earnings surprise in 6 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Thursday, April 27, after market close.
Exxon Mobil (XOM) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 03/2023. Forecast: 2.61. Positive earnings surprise in 9 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Friday, April 28.
Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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