With many countries around the world celebrating Easter, next week will be a shorter and relatively quiet week on the economic calendar. It gives us a chance to review the labour market situation.
Tuesday 04.04. 14:00 GTM, US JOLTs Job Openings (February)
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is an organisation that produces job vacancy statistics based on employer data on employment, vacancies, recruitment, hiring and separations. JOLTS specifies job openings as all positions that are open (vacant) on the last business day of each month.
The job openings index is currently in double digits and has generally been in an upward trend since the crisis of 2008 but fell sharply during the covid crisis. The JOLTs readings have been better than expected for the last 5 months despite the FED's efforts to slow down the economy with higher interest rates. This indicator is generally inversely correlated with unemployment.
A reading higher than the forecast may be favourable (bullish) for the USD, while a reading weaker than the forecast may be negative (bearish) for the USD.
Impact: USD
Wednesday 05.04. 07:55 GTM, Germany Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (March)
PMI's monthly manufacturing and services composite reports are based on surveys of more than 600 private sector companies, half in the services sector and half in the manufacturing one. The overall index score is created by taking a weighted average of each company's performance by size and market share. The results are broken down by question, showing the percentage of respondents reporting improvement, deterioration or no change compared with the previous month.
An index is derived from these percentages: 50.0 means no change from the previous month, above 50.0 means an increase (or improvement), and below 50.0 a decrease. The Composite PMI in Germany was in the positive zone in February, and it is expected to continue the trend also in March. The preliminary data for March showed a better-than-expected PMI of 52.6 versus the expected 51.0. Nonetheless, the final data for March are expected to be just slightly higher than anticipated before the preliminary data was released – at 51.1.
Higher than expected reading may have a bullish (positive) effect on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish (negative) for the EUR.
Impact: EUR
Thursday 06.04. 05:45 GTM, Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (March)
The unemployment rate shows how much of the total workforce is currently unemployed. The unemployment rate "n.s.a." (not seasonally adjusted) means that it does not take into account seasonal fluctuations in unemployment that regularly occur at certain times of the year. Therefore, the "n.a." unemployment rate may be more useful if we want to see how the unemployment rate changes over the year, and the "s.a." unemployment rate may be more useful if we want to compare the unemployment rate between different periods.
Switzerland can boast that its unemployment rate has always been very low. The unemployment rate was well below 4% at the height of the crisis. It is currently around 2%, the lowest unemployment rate since 2002.
A lower-than-expected value may be treated as positive for CHF and a higher-than-expected value - as negative.
Impact: CHF
Friday 07.04. 12:30 GTM, US Unemployment Rate (March)
The unemployment rate measures the proportion of the total labour force that is unemployed and actively seeking work. The published index is based on the previous month's data.
Unemployment in the United States varies from state to state, but overall it is currently below 4%. At the height of the Covid crisis, the unemployment rate reached almost 15%. The worse-than-expected data coming in February may indicate that the Fed's hawkish monetary policy is working, and we may expect a continuation of the trend also in the near future. The forecast for March is at the same level as February's unemployment rate – 3.6%.
A higher-than-expected indicator may be considered negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading may be considered positive (bullish) for the USD.
Impact: USD
Stock to watch
Arcimoto (FUV) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 12/2022. Forecast: -4.9. Positive earnings surprise in 1 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Monday, April 3.
Acuity Brands (AYI) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 02/2023. Forecast: 2.72. Positive earnings surprise in 10 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Tuesday, April 4, before the market opens.
ConAgra Foods (CAG) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 02/2023. Forecast: 0.6381. Positive earnings surprise in 9 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Wednesday, April 5, before the market opens.
Seven & i Holdings Co Ltd ADR (SVNDY) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 02/2023. Forecast: 0.2063. Positive earnings surprise in 5 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Thursday, April 6.
Constellation Brands A (STZ) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 02/2023. Forecast: 1.84. Positive earnings surprise in 7 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Thursday, April 6, before the market opens.
Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,41% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
