The latest The Week On Chain report from Glassnode says there is a growing number of investors with a short time horizon ('short-term holders' - STHs), whose investments have increased by 330,000 BTC since May. It was this month that the crypto world grappled with the great panic and news of Luna's collapse.
The percentage of active supply in the '+1 year' period also rises to some of the highest levels ever. This could be a good sign for the market, which historically speaking normally gained after spikes of this indicator.
The HODL Waves chart gives a good picture of the demand structure for cryptocurrencies over the past 1.5 years. Most of the gains from early 2021 were to 1-2y investors. In the next wave of gains in the second half of 2021, investors were more likely to target a shorter period of 6-12 months.
The recent surge has again seen an influx of investors in the first category. These figures could potentially indicate the timeframe of possible upswings within the next cycle.
The data presented in Glassnode's report could point to an upward movement in the price of BTC in the medium term, which overlaps with Grayscale Investment's estimate of the timing of the next long bull market, which would begin within the next year.
Leading tokens BTC and ETH are down 0.3 and 1.4% respectively today at 11:00 GMT+3 on the Conotoxia MT5 trading platform. ETH is marking its third daily bear candle. Its price has temporarily moved below the 10-day moving average. However, ETH still seems to be moving in an upward price channel, to break out of it, the token would have to permanently break through the level around $1,770.
The possibility of a correction in the short term cannot be dismissed, especially after the recent wave of strong gains. The current RSI (near the overbought zone) and MACD (drawing lower positive bars in the last days than those in the previous weeks' gains and entering the negative histogram area) may support such a scenario.
Rafał Tworkowski, Junior Market Analyst, Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
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