The price of WTI crude oil remained below $90 per barrel at the beginning of the week, the level before Russia's attack on Ukraine. Oil today is the cheapest in six months.
It seems that the topic of a global economic slowdown or recession and how long it may last may be important for the oil market. Chinese and U.S. economic data seem to show a weaker condition in both economies and thus could affect the decline in oil demand. This, in turn, could put downward pressure on prices. According to published data, factory activity in China declined enough in July to force the central bank to cut lending rates to keep demand from collapsing. In the United States, on the other hand, the market may have been taken by surprise by the second-largest drop in the history of the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index. The above indicators may affect the market from the demand side, but this is only one part of the puzzle.
On the supply side, long-awaited changes may be brewing. Once the embargo is lifted, oil from Iran may start flowing into the market again. Iran has responded to the European Union's proposal. It may seek to re-implement the 2015 nuclear agreement. The EU is also calling on the US to show more flexibility in implementing the agreement. Saudi Arabia may also be preparing to increase its oil supply. The chairman of Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil giant, stated over the weekend that his company is ready to increase production to 12 million barrels per day, the company's current production capacity limit. Only a decision by the Saudi Arabian government is needed to increase production.
According to the EIA agency's forecast, the United States can also increase its production. US oil production in the August forecast averages 11.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2022. It could rise to 12.7 million b/d in 2023. If this forecast comes true, the US could set a production record next year. The current one is 12.3 million b/d and was set in 2019.
Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
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