A week filled with inflation data lies ahead. We will learn CPI readings from the UK, Germany and the US. These are likely to affect the quotations of the major currencies. In the currency market, the dollar started July with gains, but quickly lost value due to soft comments from the Fed chairman and weak macroeconomic data from the US. As a result, the USD exchange rate fell by the strongest amount in several weeks. USD/PLN fell below 4.0. In Poland, the Monetary Policy Council left the reference rate unchanged for the ninth consecutive time, keeping it at 5.75 per cent. The National Bank of Poland expects inflation to exceed 5 per cent year-on-year in 2025, pushing back the prospect of interest rate cuts. The EUR/PLN exchange rate is in the vicinity of 4.30 and EUR/USD has risen above 1.08. Cinkciarz.pl's forecasts for EUR/PLN assume a gradual return to the vicinity of 4.25.
Table of contents:
- UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)
- German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)
- US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)
Thursday, 11.07, 8:00 CET, UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)
The annual rate of inflation in the UK as forecast fell in May to 2 per cent, the lowest level since July 2021. The slowdown was mainly due to a fall in food prices: bread, cereals, vegetables or sweets, and prices in restaurants, hotels and the leisure sector.
The current analysts' forecast is for inflation to remain at 2 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP.
Impact: EUR/GBP, GBP/PLN, GBP/USD
Thursday, 11.07, 8:00 CET, German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)
Preliminary readings show that the annual inflation rate in Germany fell to 2.2 per cent in June 2024 from 2.4 per cent in May. The drop in inflation was mainly due to lower energy costs, despite a faster rise in food prices.
The current analyst forecast is for inflation to remain at 2.2 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR.
Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN
Thursday, 11.07, 8:00 CET, US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)
The annual US inflation rate fell to 3.3 per cent in May, the lowest level in three months, compared to 3.4 per cent in April and forecasts of 3.4 per cent. Food, transport and clothing prices fell, while energy costs, including gasoline and heating oil, rose.
The current analyst forecast is for inflation to fall to 3.1 per cent.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD.
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN, USD/JPY
Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
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