Donald Trump has identified Greenland as a key territory due to its strategic location, natural resources and military importance, even suggesting the possibility of taking over the island. In his view, control of Greenland could significantly strengthen US national security and influence global stability. In our latest article, we set out to analyse where these declarations come from and what implications they could have. The idea of taking over Greenland, which is an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, has caused a stir internationally. Concerns have been raised that the United States could impose tariffs on Danish goods, which would hit the Danish economy. Denmark's largest pharmaceutical company, Novo Nordisk, whose key market is the US, could be particularly at risk. In the coming days, investors will turn their attention to US producer and consumer inflation data. Energy commodity market reports from the likes of the EIA, IEA and OPEC will also be important. This information may influence the markets and future US trade policy decisions.
Table of contents:
- US producer price index (PPI) monthly (December)
- EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
- US consumer price index (CPI) monthly (December)
- International Energy Agency (IEA) oil market report
Tuesday, 14.01, 14:30 CET, US producer price index (PPI) monthly (December)
In November 2024, US producer prices rose by 3 percent year-on-year , the largest increase since February 2023. Prices among producers are dangerously starting to accelerate, usually historically preceding movements in CPI inflation. This could be a sign for the Fed to delay its announced interest rate cuts.
Analysts forecast US PPI inflation to remain at 3 percent year-on-year.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD.
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN
Tuesday, 14.01, 18:00 CET, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
In a recent report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), we learnt about forecasts for 2025, which indicated that global oil production would increase mainly due to non-OPEC+ countries. Indeed, the cartel plans to maintain production restrictions until April 2025. Brent crude oil prices are expected to remain stable at $74 per barrel.
In the US, domestic oil production is expected to continue to increase, resulting in a net decrease in oil imports of more than 20 percent, to the lowest level since 1971.
US natural gas inventories will remain above the average of the past five years throughout the heating season. At the end of March 2025, stocks are forecast to be 2 percent above the five-year average. Despite this, natural gas prices are forecast to increase from $2.00/MMBtu in November to $3.00/MMBtu for the rest of the heating season.
Source: Conotoxia MT5, XTIUSD, Daily
A higher-than-forecast EIA could have a bullish impact on WTI oil prices, while a lower-than-expected EIA could be bearish for WTI.
Impact: XTIUSD, XBRUSD
Wednesday, 15.01, 14:30 CET, US consumer price index (CPI) monthly (December)
US inflation rose to 2.7 percent in November 2024 from 2.6 percent in October, in line with forecasts. The increase was driven by higher food and natural gas prices, while energy costs fell more slowly.
Analysts forecast an increase in US CPI inflation to 2.9 percent year-on-year.
Source: Tradingeconomics.com
A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly for the USD.
Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN
Wednesday, 15.01, 10:00 CET, International Energy Agency (IEA) oil market report
The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts an increase in oil demand in 2025, mainly due to the petrochemical industry, with limited demand for transport fuels. Production will grow at a slower rate than demand, with non-OPEC+ countries such as the US, Brazil and Canada leading the way.
OPEC+ will delay the lifting of production cuts until September 2026, limiting the risk of oversupply, although an earlier increase in production could raise it. Brent crude prices were at $73/bbl in November and the market remained stable. The key risks are Chinese demand and OPEC+ compliance with limits, while global demand growth will moderate.
Source: EIA
A higher-than-expected IEA forecast could have a bullish impact on WTI oil prices, while a lower-than-expected forecast could be bearish for WTI.
Impact: XTIUSD, XBRUSD
Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
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