There is much to suggest that trading on the US stock market will open on a positive note. U.S. index futures seem to be rising after more statements made in the headlines of news outlets.
U.S. stock futures seemed to rally on Friday as investors were able to take advantage of lower valuations while looking at reports of positive talks between Russia and Ukraine.
According to an NBC News translation, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that some progress has been made in negotiations between the two countries. Putin's comments, however, came a day after the fiasco of the talks in Turkey, where Moscow's representative defended the invasion and said it was going according to plan. However, Putin's words were said to have come in a conversation with the Belarusian president, not after talks with the Ukrainian side. It is therefore unclear whether the markets can only react positively in the short term or whether this is the beginning of a de-escalation of the conflict. The latter is not indicated by satellite images from the vicinity of the increasingly besieged Kiev. After the weekend, the markets may again witness higher volatility.
In Europe, the stock indices also seem to be recovering from earlier declines. The DAX 30 gained more than 3 percent in the afternoon, approaching 14,000 points. However, some investors may begin to wonder about the sustainability of the bull market. Central banks in Europe and the U.S. are moving to tighten monetary policy, inflation is picking up globally, and economic growth has probably reached its highest pace in 2021.
An analysis of business cycles could suggest that the global economy could be entering a slowdown with the possibility of a recession. This, in turn, may not be positive for stock market indices.
When the excitement in the markets subsidies, which could be the case if there were a de-escalation of the conflict soon, then the cold calculation of the new economic reality in which the world could be stuck for years to come could begin.
Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service)
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