The oil waits for OPEC. The pound is getting stronger

19.08.2020 11:12|Conotoxia Ltd Analyst Team

Oil prices have not been fluctuating much recently, but this may change soon as the market awaits this afternoon's meeting of OPEC and OPEC+ representatives.

Concerns about the demand for the oil are growing, as there is still no further relief package for the US economy in the United States, and politicians are far from an agreement on the matter. Tensions are also growing between Washington and Beijing, as US President Donald Trump canceled planned trade talks with China, saying that the way Beijing handles the virus case is unthinkable. From the first week of August, the price of WTI oil oscillates around USD 42 per barrel.

On the forex currency market, events on the British pound are paying particular attention. The GBP/USD pair may soon reach its highest levels since late 2019. Today, another factor that seems to support the price of the British currency was inflation data. In July, consumer prices in the UK rose by 1% compared to the previous year, which is more than forecast by economists. The consensus assumed an increase of 0.6%. Such growth was caused mainly by the increase in fuel prices and the lack of summer clothing sales, which seasonally reduce prices. It is worth adding that the pound did not react to the news that trade talks between the UK and the European Union stalled again yesterday. Talks on brexit have resumed this week and the UK has only seven weeks left to come to an agreement, Bloomberg said.

It is worth noting the investors' optimistic view of the Australian dollar and the Australian stock exchange has increased. The AUD/USD exchange rate may soon reach its highest levels since late 2018 after starting its rebound from 0.55 to 0.7270 today. In turn, the Australian main stock exchange index (symbol AU200 on the Conotoxia platform) has reached its 5-month high. Investor sentiment improved after the news that the Australian government has signed an agreement with the UK pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca to provide potential supplies of the vaccine developed by Oxford University if the tests are successful.

From macro-economic events, market attention may focus on the Minutes of the last FOMC meeting in Washington, as investors are looking for new monetary policy guidance before the next Fed meeting in September. These events may have a significant impact on the US dollar.


Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.

Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

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