The attention of the world and investors seems to be increasingly focused on the East of Europe, where, according to statements by American politicians, the conflict may escalate into a war. This in turn may cause increased nervousness in the markets and a return to safety.
WTI crude oil futures are up more than 1 percent today, surpassing the $94 per barrel level at one point. As a result, the highest level in more than seven years was reached again.
US warns, prices react with growth
Oil price rises began after the United States warned of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine any day now, potentially triggering sanctions that would be imposed on Russia. This could affect disruptions in the supply of energy resources.
The U.S. has called on Americans to leave Ukraine immediately, which could cause a stir in global financial markets.
The political tensions come amid OPEC+ struggling to meet its production targets despite monthly promises to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day by March. The IEA reported that OPEC+'s production shortfall from its target rose to 900,000 barrels per day in January.
Instead of an increase in supply, a decrease may come out
Investors continued to monitor developments in Iran's possible revival of the 2015 nuclear deal, but a senior Iranian security official said Monday that progress in the talks is becoming increasingly difficult.
As a result, Iranian oil may not flow to the market, and Russian oil may also be less if the conflict escalates. Thus, the supply may not even increase, but may actually decrease. This seems to lead to a demand-supply imbalance, which seems to be currently discounted by oil prices on global markets.
Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service)
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