This week, trading on the US market will be one day shorter due to Thanksgiving on Thursday. However, there will be a lot of publications and data which are very important for the market and investors.
In the last week of November, the second US GDP estimate for the third quarter of this year will be published. The first estimate pointed to 2 percent growth. Currently, market consensus points to a 1.9 percent increase. This result of the American economy is to be contributed primarily by household consumption, government spending and exports. If the reading at 1.9 percent would be confirmed, GDP growth would be the lowest since the summer of 2017. The data will be announced on Wednesday, November 27 at 14:30.
At the same time, there will be a publication on durable goods orders for October. The market consensus assumes a decrease in orders on a monthly basis of 0.5 percent. against an earlier decline of 1.2 percent, which was the lowest value since June 2019. As if the macroeconomic data on the eve of Thanksgiving was not enough, there will be a report on US personal spending together with PCE inflation.
PCE is a measure of inflation that the Fed takes into account. It differs from classical consumer inflation (CPI) by other weights in the inflation basket. According to Fed, PCE better reflects reality than CPI. According to consensus, core PCE inflation in the US in October was to increase by 1.7 percent compared to the previous year. Data on inflation and expenditure of Americans will be published at 16.00. Then there will be information about the weekly change in fuel stocks, including oil, in the US. The forecast assumes an increase in inventories by 0.1 million barrels against a previous increase of 1.4 million barrels.
In Europe, we are waiting for an inflation data package. Information about Germany and the entire eurozone may be of interest. While Germany is trying to avoid a recession, it is unlikely to avoid monthly deflation, which may be the largest since the beginning of 2019. Data will be released on Thursday, November 28 at 14.00. In turn, the inflation reading for the entire euro area may remain below 1 percent (published on Friday, November 29 at 11:00), which can only confirm the current monetary policy of the European Central Bank.
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal Opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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