The Economic Policy Symposium organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is one of the oldest ongoing central banking conferences in the world. The event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics and US government representatives to discuss long-term policy issues.
The Symposium began in 1978 and moved permanently in 1982 to Jackson Hole, and has attracted huge interest from the media and market observers, with investors listening closely to speeches by the world's most important central bankers. This time may be no different, with important figures once again gathering and discussing in the picturesque mountain resort from August 25 to 27. The main theme is "Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy".
Until this event, where statements on both GDP, inflation and monetary policy in the US may be made, the market seems to remain divided on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 50 or 75 basis points at its September 21 meeting. The matter may become clearer after the start of the annual symposium, when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver the keynote address. However, even after this event, more data will flow into the market, such as the August employment report, which will be released on September 2, and on September 13 we will learn the August inflation report.
The above events may have an impact on the further exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, whose index is again in the area of levels seen two decades ago, and the exchange rate of the EUR/USD pair once again seems to be approaching parity at 1.0000. The symposium may also be relevant to the holiday break in central bank decisions. In addition to Jackson Hole, revised U.S. GDP data will be released next week, where some economists expect an upward revision from -0.9 to -0.8 percent.
Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service)
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