Looking at today's quotations on the world's major markets, one could come to the conclusion that nothing bad is happening in the world. The stock market indices are leveling off, and commodities seem to be returning to the levels from before yesterday's rally.
The price of crude oil seems to have fallen by more than 1 percent, and the price of a barrel of Brent is in the region of USD 97, going below the symbolic limit of USD 100. WTI crude oil, on the other hand, is back in the USD 92 region. US gas prices fell by over 2 percent to USD 4.53. Gold and silver left huge upper shadows on the daily candles. An ounce of gold appears to have fallen nearly 2 percent below $1,890, while silver is down nearly 3 percent to $24.
Among stock indices, in addition to the Polish WIG20, which rose by nearly 10 percent, attention is drawn to the rebound on the German DAX index. It seems to have risen by more than 3 percent to 14466 points. In the United States, where the bulls took control yesterday, the indices are up by about 0.4 percent. The Nasdaq 100 may return above, 14000 points, while the S&P 500 above 4300 points.
On the currency market, the US dollar seems to be giving back gains to the euro, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar. EUR/USD appears to have rallied to 1.1239, up almost 0.5%, while AUD/USD is up over 1% to 0.7230 and NZD/USD is up almost 1% to 0.6745.
A definite thaw may also be observed in the cryptocurrency market, where bitcoin is back above $39,000. ETH/USD, on the other hand, seems to have rallied to $2700. Nevertheless, cryptocurrencies still seem to be under pressure since the beginning of the year. The price of bitcoin seems to be more than 16 percent lower than at the beginning of January. ETH, on the other hand, is more than 27 percent cheaper.
The weekend may be key to the start of trading on Monday as markets may assume an attempt at agreement and negotiation. Such requests were made today. There seem to be two possibilities. One is an agreement and de-escalation, and the other is a takeover of Kyiv. These are two diametrically opposite scenarios, and at this moment it may be difficult to determine which is more probable.
Daniel Kostecki, Director of the Polish branch of Conotoxia Ltd. (Forex service)
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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