Forex conotoxia.com

Forex conotoxia.com - RSShttps://invest.conotoxia.comNowości z internetowego kantoru Cinkciarz.plen-usforex conotoxia.compagcom_pagfoo-znaki_towarowe 2024pagcom_pagfoo-rNowości z internetowego kantoru Cinkciarz.plForex conotoxia.comno

Cinkciarz.pl, Cinkciarz, analizy walutowe, komentarze walutowe, marcin lipka, kurs franka, kurs dolara, kurs euroForex conotoxia.comhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/img/logo/podcast_itunes.pnghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/articles/rss/investment-research/commentsNext week to watch (14-18.10.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-14-18-10-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-14-18-10-2024Why are wages in Germany higher than in Poland? What has made the United States the cradle of the world's richest people? How are India and China building their economic power? We tried to answer these and other questions in our last article. Looking ahead, we begin the Q3 earnings season. Traditionally, financial companies will be the first to report data, providing a better assessment of the current economic situation in the US. In September 2024, US core inflation rose by 0.3 per cent m/m and 3.3 per cent y/y, strengthening the dollar. Despite expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed, inflation and good labour market data suggest that the process will be gradual. The dollar is holding near PLN 3.92 and the euro at PLN 4.30. Analysts at Conotoxia Ltd indicate that the dollar could fall below PLN 3.85 by the end of 2024. At present, however, currency markets remain influenced by uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East and the upcoming US elections. The ECB's decision on a possible further interest rate cut, as well as the publication of inflation data from the UK and the euro area, appear to be key in the coming week.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">UK consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Eurozone interest rate decision</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 16.10, 8:00 CET, UK consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)</h2> The annual rate of inflation in the UK in August this year was 2.2 per cent, remaining at the same level as in July. The main drivers of price increases were in the leisure, cultural and used car sectors. In turn, falling fuel prices, particularly petrol, and reductions in restaurant and hotel prices, including alcohol, put downward pressure on inflation. Analysts' consensus is for UK CPI inflation to remain further down at 2.2 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_UK_11.10.png" alt="UK inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on GBP. Impact: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 17.10, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)</h2> According to the preliminary reading for September 2024, inflation in the euro area fell to 1.8 per cent, the lowest level since April 2021 and below the ECB's target of 2 per cent. Energy prices fell and inflation in services slowed, although food, alcohol and tobacco prices rose slightly. The ECB expects inflation to pick up by the end of the year, but should fall back towards 2 per cent from 2025. Analysts' consensus is for CPI inflation in the euro area to remain at 1.8 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wukres_inflacja_EU_11.10.png" alt="EU inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday 17.10, 14:15 CET, Eurozone interest rate decision</h2> The ECB cut interest rates by 60 bps at its last meeting, which was in line with market expectations. This was the 2nd rate cut in this cycle, but the first time the ECB has started a cycle of rate cuts before the US. In its latest meeting report, the ECB suggested that a gradual rate cut would be appropriate if data were in line with forecasts. Faster disinflation or a slower recovery may require faster action, while slower disinflation or rapid economic growth may require a slower pace. Policymakers stressed that decisions will depend on incoming data. Analysts' consensus is for another 25bp interest rate cut. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_EU_11.10.png" alt="EU interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected rate could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.23% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 11 Oct 2024 13:51:00 +0200Why are wages in Germany higher than in Poland? What has made the United States the cradle of the world's richest people? How are India and China building their economic power? We tried to answer these and other questions in our last article. Looking ah...Why do people earn less in Poland than in Germany?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-do-people-earn-less-in-poland-than-in-germanyhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-do-people-earn-less-in-poland-than-in-germanyWhy are wages higher in Germany than in Poland? What makes the United States the cradle of the world's richest people? By what means are India and China building their economic power? Many answers to these questions can be obtained by accurately interpreting the CAR indicators.Comparative advantage is often misjudged by many market observers. It is most often assessed in terms of the number of factories. Although factories increase production and reduce unemployment, their impact on wages is limited, especially for the production of basic goods such as meat or raw materials. For wages to be higher, it is necessary to have comparative advantages in high-margin sectors. Products must be non-substitutable and attractive to consumers, even at higher prices than competitors. An example is luxury goods, which are sold at high margins despite low production costs. Let us therefore look at how to measure and how individual comparative advantages affect earnings and quality of life in a country. <h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Why do you earn good money in Germany?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Is the strength of the Polish economy strong diversification?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">US with surprisingly low competitiveness</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">India's emerging power based on cheap labour</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll6">China stands on industry</a></li> </ol> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">To measure comparative advantage, the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index is used, which assesses a country's competitiveness in the production of a specific good or service against other countries by measuring its share of global exports of the good in question.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The German economy is based on advanced industrial technologies, such as the production of automobiles and medical equipment. It is least competitive in low-value-added products such as raw materials and foodstuffs.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Poland avoids the problems associated with the high concentration of the economy on selected sectors, achieving comparative advantage in many categories, especially in raw materials, food products and industrial goods. However, low value added in these sectors explains why wages in Poland remain lower than in Germany.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The US economy performs poorly in terms of export competitiveness as a result of its greater reliance on domestic demand. Although the US has a comparative advantage in a small number of product categories, it is the world leader in financial services, which contributes to the functioning of many billionaires.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">India's economy is characterised by significant competitiveness due to comparative advantage in many products. Exports consist mainly of food, raw materials and processed goods, which are largely based on low labour costs.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">China has a comparative advantage in many product categories, which is similar to the situation in Poland. Although they still base their economy on low-cost products, more advanced and processed products are increasingly appearing in their exports.</li> </ul> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)</h2> The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index is used in economics and international trade to assess a country's competitiveness in producing a particular good or service compared to other countries. RCA measures whether a country has a comparative advantage in a particular area, meaning that its products or services are more competitive in the international market. The interpretation of the indicator is simple: if the CAR is greater than 1, it means that the country has a comparative advantage in a particular sector. In other words, the country's share of global exports of a particular good is greater than its share of the country's total exports. An index of less than 1 suggests that the country has a smaller share of exports of the good in question compared to the global average. For example, an CAR of 2 indicates a high comparative advantage, indicating that a country has a significantly larger share of global production of that good than in other sectors. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Why do you earn good money in Germany?</h2> The German economy has long been based on high-tech industries, such as the production of cars and other vehicles, which require some of the most advanced industrial processes in the world. As a result, Germany achieves a competitive advantage (CAR > 1) in 40 per cent of product categories. However, this economy bases its advantage on a relatively narrow group of sectors, mainly industrial, as only 8 per cent of categories have an RCA > 2. The most competitive products include tractors, aircraft and spacecraft, motor vehicles, medical apparatus and internal combustion engines. Each of these categories requires advanced know-how, highly qualified specialists and significant capital investment. In contrast, the least competitive German products (with the lowest CAR) are low-value-added goods such as food products (meat, fruit, vegetables) and raw materials (nickel, natural gas, aluminium, gold), which are mainly used for industrial production and processing into more advanced products. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_RCA_Niemcy_10.10.png" alt="RCA Germany" /> Source: UNCTADstat <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Is the strength of the Polish economy strong diversification?</h2> Although the high concentration of the economy on selected sectors brings with it many problems, particularly related to vulnerability to external factors (such as rising energy prices or broken supply chains), Poland seems to avoid similar difficulties. As many as 49 per cent of product categories achieve a comparative advantage in Poland, many of which are significant (CAR > 2). But why do wages in Poland still remain lower than in Germany? The answer lies in the structure of these comparative advantages. Poland dominates in categories such as raw materials (coke, coal), food and agricultural products (fish, meat, offal, eggs, cereals, chocolate), manufactured goods (railway rails, steel structures, paper, ammunition, machine and car parts), and household goods (cutlery, electrical appliances, furniture, toiletries). In most of these sectors, value added is relatively low, which explains why, despite Poland's low level of unemployment, wages remain below the European average. Nevertheless, this structure of the economy provides a solid basis for further development. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_RCA_Polska_10.10.png" alt="RCA Poland" /> Source: UNCTADstat <h2 id="heading-scroll4">US with surprisingly low competitiveness</h2> On the basis of export competitiveness, the US economy performs surprisingly poorly, due to its greater reliance on domestic demand, fuelled by the availability of vast amounts of investment capital. The US shows a comparative advantage in only 31 per cent of product categories, with only 5 per cent of these having a significant advantage (CAR > 2). The most competitive US products include works of art, arms and ammunition, films, specialised medical devices, natural gas, and food and agricultural products (such as cereals and corn). One would expect much more from the world's largest economy in terms of exports. However, it is worth remembering that these figures do not include financial products and services, in which the US is the world leader. It is the US stock market that has helped many of the world's richest billionaires raise capital. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_RCA_USA_10.10.png" alt="RCA USA" /> Source: UNCTADstat <h2 id="heading-scroll5">India's emerging power based on cheap labour</h2> The Indian economy, despite having a comparative advantage in 40 per cent of product types (like Germany), has as many as twice as many products for which the CAR exceeds 2. This means that this economy has many comparative advantages, which raises the question of what it bases its competitiveness on. Analysing the products that account for a significant share of India's global export trade are: food and agricultural commodities (rice, spices, tea, sugar, cattle), raw materials and inputs (lead, tobacco, building materials, silk and textiles) and processed products such as jewellery, motorbikes and medicines. In most of these, comparative advantage is achieved mainly through low labour costs rather than through high added value. However, we are beginning to see slow changes in the economy in this area too. India has been categorised by the International Monetary Fund as one of the fastest growing economies in the coming years, with a projected average annual GDP growth of 7 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_RCA_Indie_10.10.png" alt="RCA India" /> Source: UNCTADstat <h2 id="heading-scroll6">China stands on industry</h2> Is China still basing its economy on cheap counterfeits exported around the world? In terms of comparative advantages, it resembles Poland's economy in numbers, as it has a comparative advantage in as many as 47 per cent of product categories, with 16 per cent having an RCA of more than 2. These include products such as materials (ceramics, textiles), clothing, toys, furniture and lighting, as well as more high-tech consumer electronics and household appliances (televisions, radios, sound players) and machinery and apparatus (automatic data processing machines, electrical apparatus, sanitary appliances). Although China still maintains much of its comparative advantage in exports through low-cost products, more advanced and processed products are also increasingly emerging. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_RCA_Chiny_10.10.png" alt="RCA China" /> Source: UNCTADstat   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.23% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 10 Oct 2024 10:43:00 +0200Why are wages higher in Germany than in Poland? What makes the United States the cradle of the world's richest people? By what means are India and China building their economic power? Many answers to these questions can be obtained by accurately interpr...Next week to watch (7-11.10.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-7-11-10-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-7-11-10-2024The Żabka Group, which manages over 10,000 shops, earlier this week announced details of its stock market debut, a particularly high-profile topic among Polish investors. This will be one of the largest debuts on the Polish capital market, and our team of analysts took a close look at the attractiveness of the Group's offering. We also analysed the situation and valuations of three particularly important global stock markets: United States, China and Taiwan. We have tried to assess whether there is an overvaluation of equities and what trends we will observe in the near future. In the coming week, US CPI and PPI inflation data will be particularly important. On Wednesday, we will also learn about FOMC members' discussions at the September meeting, which may help to understand the pace of further interest rate cuts.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">FOMC meeting minutes</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US producer price index (PPI) monthly (September)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday 9.10, 20:00 CET, FOMC meeting minutes</h2> The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in July discussed the economic outlook ahead of the first interest rate cut in the cycle, in September. Already at that time, policymakers noted a further slowdown in economic growth and inflation, with the expectation that price dynamics would return to around 2 per cent by 2026. Inflation and employment risks are beginning to level off, although some factors, such as supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, may increase inflationary pressures. Risks to financial stability, including cyber-attack risks and those related to the commercial real estate market, remain significant. Most participants felt that with inflation continuing to fall, policy easing would be possible at future meetings. A more hawkish tone to the latest ‘minutes’ could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a more dovish tone could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Czwartek, 10.10, 14:30 CET, indeks cen konsumpcyjnych w Stanach Zjednoczonych (CPI) miesięcznie (wrzesień)</h2> The US annual inflation rate fell to 2.5 per cent in August this year, the lowest level since February 2021 and the fifth consecutive month of decline. Energy costs, including gasoline and gas, declined significantly, as did food, transport and car prices. Increases, however, were recorded in the shelter and clothing categories. The monthly CPI rose by 0.2 per cent, in line with expectations. Analysts' consensus forecasts that disinflation of the US CPI will continue to advance to 2.3 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_CPI_04.10.png" alt="chart CPI inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 11.10, 14:30 CET, US producer price index (PPI) monthly (September)</h2> In August this year, producer inflation - the increase in the price of goods straight from factories and the costs incurred by companies - was 1.7 per cent year-on-year in the US. This is the lowest level in six months, down from 2.1 per cent in July (after downward revision) and below market expectations of 1.8 per cent.  Analysts' consensus is for US PPI inflation to fall to 1.3 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_PPI_04.10.png" alt="chart PPI inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.23% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 04 Oct 2024 13:33:00 +0200The Żabka Group, which manages over 10,000 shops, earlier this week announced details of its stock market debut, a particularly high-profile topic among Polish investors. This will be one of the largest debuts on the Polish capital market, and our team ...A debut that could prove to be a trap? Analysis of the Żabka Group IPOhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/a-debut-that-could-prove-to-be-a-trap-analysis-of-the-zabka-group-ipohttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/a-debut-that-could-prove-to-be-a-trap-analysis-of-the-zabka-group-ipoLater this month, the Żabka Group, which manages over 10,000 shops, can be expected to go public. The last significant IPO on the Polish stock exchange was that of Allegro, whose offering amounted to PLN 10.6 billion with a valuation of PLN 44 billion. The owners of Żabka, intend to sell shares worth PLN 6.45 billion at a valuation of PLN 21.5 billion, so it will not be the biggest debut, but it may be significant. However, let's look at the details of this valuation to find out what potential it could have.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">First yellow card early in the match</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Żabka's successes to date</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Valuation of Żabka like a tech giant</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">First yellow card early in the match</h2> The immediate purpose of Żabka's debut is not to raise capital for the company's development, but to sell 30 per cent of all shares held mainly by the US private equity fund CVC Capital. This could be the first warning sign for potential investors, as one does not sell the hen that lays golden eggs. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_CVC_Capital_03.10.png" alt="chart CVC Capital" /> Source: Żabka Group prospectus Żabka's planned debut is expected to facilitate access to capital for future growth and acquisitions, increasing the company's credibility in the eyes of investors. However, the question arises why the owners do not decide to issue new shares already at the debut instead of selling their shares. Management argues that a stock market debut will raise the Group's profile, attract new investors and provide liquidity for existing shareholders, while motivating management and enhancing the company's image as an employer. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Żabka's successes to date</h2> Comparable in some ways to the Uber model, Żabka's business model is based on converting a significant part of its operations to franchisees, which significantly reduces the cost and risk of doing business. The company's primary focus on data analytics and logistics has streamlined the convenience ecosystem it has created. This can be seen in the data - sales grew at an annual rate of 23 per cent between 2000 and 2023, and more than 1,000 new shops were opened last year. Future growth potential also lies in international expansion, particularly in Romania, where the company sees great opportunities. Żabka already has more than 10,500 shops and plans include growing the chain to 19,500 outlets in Poland and 4,000 in Romania and doubling overall sales in the next five years. Żabka's business model, based on meeting the needs of customers who value fast, convenient shopping (not necessarily the cheapest), allows the company to generate higher margins than its competitors. For example, Dino Polska's EBITDA margin is 8 per cent, while Żabka achieved a margin of 12.4 per cent in 2023. As a result, the company benefits from economies of scale, and opening new shops involves lower costs than chains such as Biedronka or Dino. In the first half of 2024, Żabka recorded sales growth of 23 per cent year-on-year, while Dino recorded growth of 15 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Dino_03.10.png" alt="chart Dino" /> Source: Tradingview It is worth remembering, however, that Żabka operates on a franchise model, which involves giving 16.5 per cent of revenue to serve more than 9,000 franchisees. This affects the final net profit margin (after taking into account depreciation and amortisation and interest on debt), which is only 1.8 per cent. By comparison, the net margin for Dino Polska is 5.2 per cent and for the Portuguese owner of the Biedronka chain, Jerónimo Martins, 1.9 per cent. Such a low net margin for Żabka is due to the very high level of debt, which accounts for 91 per cent of the company's assets, compared to 43 per cent for Dino Polska and 79 per cent for Jerónimo Martins. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Valuation of Żabka like a tech giant</h2> It is worth remembering the principle often emphasised by Professor Aswath Damodaran: ‘keep your eyes on the price’. A good investment is about buying an asset below its intrinsic value, rather than picking trendy and widely advertised products. Particular caution should be exercised when investing in high-profile IPOs, which often end in negative results. Allegro's recent major IPO is a case in point - after four years, the company's shares are trading 15 per cent below the offer price on the day of the IPO. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Allegro_03.10.png" alt="chart Allegro" /> Source: Tradingview Żabka's top offer price per share is PLN 21.50, which translates into a capitalisation of PLN 21.5 billion. For comparison, the Polish shop chain Dino is valued at PLN 33.5 billion and the Portuguese owner of Biedronka (Jerónimo Martins) is valued at PLN 48.1 billion (€11.2 billion). At first glance, it seems that Żabka is much lower valued compared to its domestic competitors. However, after looking at the valuation ratios, the situation looks different. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Żabka is around 45, while it is 28 for Dino Polska and 15.7 for Jerónimo Martins. Of course, this ratio does not take into account potential future earnings growth, but it suggests that Żabka's valuation assumes more than twice as fast earnings growth compared to its competitors. Management announced in the prospectus that it plans to double sales over the next five years, which would imply annual profit growth of around 15 per cent, compared to a dynamic 23 per cent per year to date over the past two decades. However, a valuation of £21.50 per share would require growth of around 24 per cent per annum over the next five years, higher than management's own forecasts. This is another warning sign, suggesting that the investment in Żabka's IPO could follow a similar path to the Allegro or Pepco debuts, leading to long-term shareholder disappointment. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_wycena_%C5%BBabka_03.10.png" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76,23% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 03 Oct 2024 11:43:00 +0200Later this month, the Żabka Group, which manages over 10,000 shops, can be expected to go public. The last significant IPO on the Polish stock exchange was that of Allegro, whose offering amounted to PLN 10.6 billion with a valuation of PLN 44 billion. ...Investment gems: Taiwan, China and the US in the light of artificial intelligencehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/investment-gems-taiwan-china-and-the-us-in-the-light-of-artificial-intelligencehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/investment-gems-taiwan-china-and-the-us-in-the-light-of-artificial-intelligenceA good investment is defined not by whether we buy shares in the innovative companies that are the most talked about, but by whether we buy assets below their intrinsic value. Howard Marks, a well-known investor, said: ‘Investment success comes not from buying good things, but from buying them at a favourable price’. Therefore, let's take a look at the current situation of valuations of individual markets.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">United States</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Taiwan</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">The awakening Chinese dragon</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Summary</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">United States</h2> New York University professor Aswath Damodaran follows a similar principle to Howard Marks, saying: ‘keep your eyes on the price’. Analysing the valuation of individual markets, one can conclude that the US stock market does not currently appear to be particularly attractively valued. The fundamental price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the main S&P 500 index is 29.9, with a historical average of 16. However, it should be emphasised that these levels are not yet indicative of a speculative bubble or crisis - in such situations the ratio has been above 40, and analysts have sought alternative methods of valuing companies. S&P 500 - Price to earnings <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PE_SPX_01.10.png" alt="PE chart S&P 500" /> Source: MacroMicro The increased valuations of US equities are due to the increased potential of artificial intelligence technology, which is now not just a future hope, but is translating into real sales growth for many companies. Therefore, it is expected that US indices are likely to be correctly valued, due to the dynamic development of AI. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_SPX_01.10.png" alt="SPX chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Taiwan</h2> The development of artificial intelligence requires enormous computing power, making the semiconductor sector a particular beneficiary of this trend. The sector is divided into two segments: semiconductor design, led by the well-known company Nvidia, and semiconductor manufacturing. Although most semiconductor design companies are based in the US, as much as 90 per cent of the most advanced semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan. Taiwan's main index TAIEX, despite earnings growth of 14 per cent year-on-year (versus 9 per cent for the S&P 500 index), is priced significantly lower. The P/E ratio for the TAIEX is 22.8, meaning that, despite its higher growth potential, Taiwanese shares are cheaper than their US counterparts. TAIEX - Price to earnings <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PE_TAIEX_01.10.png" alt="TAIEX PE chart" /> Source: MacroMicro The key player here is Taiwan's largest company TSMC, which accounts for more than 20 per cent of this index and is a major semiconductor supplier to giants such as Nvidia, Apple and AMD. These and other leading technology companies have announced increased investment in the development of artificial intelligence technology, which will require an increasing number of specialised graphics cards and processors, and in their production Taiwan has an undeniable global competitive advantage. For this reason, it is expected that the current valuations of Taiwan's equity indices appear more attractive than their US counterparts, and that artificial intelligence development could be a key driver of earnings growth in the coming years. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_TSMC_01.10.png" alt="TSMC chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, TaiwanSemic, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">The awakening Chinese dragon</h2> One of the cheapest equity markets among the major economies is China. The MSCI China index is trading with a P/E ratio of 11.3, which means that it is almost three times lower valued than the US S&P 500. Behind such a low valuation of Chinese equities is the country's economic situation. Following the bankruptcy of major property developer Evergrande Group, the Chinese economy is facing numerous problems. In response, the government, with the involvement of the People's Bank of China, has decided on one of the boldest support programmes in recent years. MSCI China - Price to earnings <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PE_China_01.10.png" alt="PE China chart" /> Source: MacroMicro The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements for banks to stimulate economic growth and ease the property crisis. The interest rate on existing mortgages fell by 0.5 percentage points, and the minimum deposit for the purchase of a second home was reduced from 25 per cent to 15 per cent. The central bank also announced programmes to support stock market investment through loans from the central bank. Since this decision was announced, the entire Chinese index has gained as much as 24 per cent in just one week. it is expected that the Chinese stock market can still contain many attractively valued companies. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_China50_01.10.png" alt="China50 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, China50, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Summary</h2> Stock market indices in the US, China and Taiwan may yet surprise investors in the future. While the US market appears to be correctly valued, especially in the context of the development of artificial intelligence, Taiwanese stocks, especially in the semiconductor sector, have more attractive valuations with strong growth potential. China, on the other hand, offers the lowest valuations among the major economies, and government and central bank actions may support further market growth despite the current economic challenges. It is important to remember to pay particularly close attention to the valuations of individual markets and stocks because, as we quoted in the introduction, ‘Investment success comes not from buying good things, but from buying them at a favourable price’.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 01 Oct 2024 13:07:00 +0200A good investment is defined not by whether we buy shares in the innovative companies that are the most talked about, but by whether we buy assets below their intrinsic value. Howard Marks, a well-known investor, said: ‘Investment success comes not from...Next week to watch (30.09-04.10.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-30-09-04-10-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-30-09-04-10-2024Investors are increasingly overcoming fears of a possible recession in the US, as can be seen by the gains in the main S&P 500 index, which has reached new historic peaks. More important than predicting the future of the economy, however, is understanding the current situation. The rise in US unemployment from 3.4 to 4.2 per cent, although it is still below average, seems to be a worrying sign. The GDP growth rate is 3 per cent in the second quarter, compared to 1.6 per cent at the beginning of the year. Industrial production in August was unchanged from a year ago, indicating that growth is mainly driven by the services sector. Data from the latest PMI reading for manufacturing was 47 , suggesting a decline in the near future, while the services sector is expected to grow, reaching a PMI reading of 55. Conotoxia’s analysts therefore remain optimistic about the future of the US economy, closely monitoring labour market and industrial data. In the coming week, US labour market data, which will be announced on Friday, will be particularly important. We also expect news on the UK economy, which is showing the first signs of a return to growth. We will also learn inflation readings for September from Germany and the euro area.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">UK gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">German consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">US unemployment rate on a monthly basis (September)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Monday, 30.09, 8:00 CET, UK gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2).</h2> We learned from the preliminary reading that the UK economy grew by 0.9 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2024, the strongest growth since Q3 2022. The main driver of growth was the services sector, which expanded at a rate of 1.3 per cent, but industrial production fell by 0.6 per cent. Investment, household and government spending increased, while exports declined and imports rose. This situation exacerbates the trade deficit and could weaken sterling. Analysts' consensus is for GDP growth to be confirmed at 0.9 per cent year-on-year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_UK_27.09.png" alt="UK GDP graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on GBP. Impact: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Monday, 30.09, 14:00 CET, German consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)</h2> Annual inflation in Germany stood at 1.9 per cent in August 2024, down from 2.3 per cent in July. This was the lowest inflation since March 2021, helped by a faster decline in energy prices. Food prices rose for the fifth consecutive month. Analysts' consensus forecasts that Germany's CPI disinflation will continue to advance to 1.5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_niemcy_27.09.png" alt="chart of the German CPI" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Tuesday, 1.10, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) monthly (September)</h2> Annual inflation in the euro area fell to 2.2 per cent in August 2024, the lowest level since July 2021. Growth was driven by the prices of services and food, alcohol and tobacco, while energy prices fell. Disinflation was recorded in the zone's largest economies, with increases in only a few countries such as Latvia and Malta. In its forecasts, the ECB projects average inflation of 2.5 per cent in 2024 and 1.9 per cent in 2026. The analysts' consensus is for CPI inflation in the euro area to fall to 1.5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_EU_27.09.png" alt="EU CPI chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 4.10, 14:30 CET, US unemployment rate on a monthly basis (September)</h2> The US unemployment rate fell to 4.2 per cent in August 2024 from 4.3 per cent in July. The number of unemployed remained at 7.1 million. The long-term unemployed account for 21.3 per cent of the total unemployed, slightly higher than a year ago. The labour force participation rate remained at 62.7 per cent, the highest since 2020. Analysts' consensus is for the US unemployment rate to rise to 4.3 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_bezrobocie_USA_27.09.png" alt="graph US unemployment" /> Impact: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bullishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 27 Sep 2024 15:16:00 +0200Investors are increasingly overcoming fears of a possible recession in the US, as can be seen by the gains in the main S&P 500 index, which has reached new historic peaks. More important than predicting the future of the economy, however, is understandi...Next week to watch (23-27.09.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-23-27-09-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-23-27-09-2024As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp, although the scale of the reduction sparked divided opinions in the markets. The dollar initially weakened after the decision, with EUR/USD rising to 1.12 and USD/PLN falling to 3.82. It is likely that the Fed is planning another 50bp cut by the end of the year. Rate lowering in the US started later than in other developed countries, which is expected to be made up for by faster cuts. Invest.Conotoxia.com’s analysts point to a further possible fall in the dollar, with USD/PLN below 3.75 by mid-2025. In the coming week, markets will be closely monitoring key decisions and economic data that could significantly affect the quotations of the major currencies, particularly the franc. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank will announce its interest rate decision, which could see another cut. On the same day, the final US GDP reading for the second quarter will be published. On Friday, meanwhile, the latest US PCE inflation data will be known.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Interest rate decision in Switzerland</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q2).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index per year (August)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Thursday, 26.09, 9:30 CET, interest rate decision in Switzerland</h2> At its latest meeting in June, the Swiss National Bank cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent, in line with market expectations. It continued what started as one of the first cycles of rate cuts in developed countries. The decision appears to have been driven by falling inflationary pressures and the strength of the franc. The SNB forecasts annual inflation of 1.3 percent in 2024, 1.1 percent in 2025 and 1.0 percent in 2026, under the assumption of maintaining rates at 1.25 percent. The bank also forecasts moderate GDP growth of 1 percent in 2024 and 1.5 percent in 2025. Analysts' consensus is for another interest rate cut in Switzerland to 1 percent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_szwajcaria_20.09.png" alt="interest rate graph Switzerland" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the CHF, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the CHF. Impact: EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, CHF/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 26.09, 14:30 CET, US gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q2).</h2> According to second estimates, US real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024 and 1.4 percent in the first quarter. Growth was driven by consumer spending (2.9 percent), inventory investment (7.5 percent) and fixed asset investment (4.6 percent). Exports, non-residential investment and government spending figures were revised downwards. Analysts' consensus is for the final US GDP reading to remain at 3 percent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_USA_20.09.png" alt="graph of US GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 27.09, 14:30 CET, US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index per year (August)</h2> PCE inflation, the equivalent of CPI growth, remained at 2.5 percent in July, the lowest since February 2021. The low inflation allowed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 bps for the first time this cycle. Analysts' consensus is for inflation to fall further to 2.4 percent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_PCE_20.09.png" alt="PCE inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 20 Sep 2024 12:02:00 +0200As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50bp, although the scale of the reduction sparked divided opinions in the markets. The dollar initially weakened after the decision, with EUR/USD rising to 1.12 and USD/PLN falling to 3.82. It is li...Next week to watch (16 – 20.09.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-16-20-09-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-16-20-09-2024An important week ahead for investors with the US Federal Reserve deciding on the first interest rate cut since March 2020. Along with the US colleagues, Bank of England and Bank of Japan monetary policy members will come together next week to vote on where to set the key interest rates. However, all three central banks are in different positions. While the US potential interest rate cut would be the first one since the COVID-19 crisis, the BoE started loosening its monetary policy in August. The BoJ, on the other hand, has only recently started to tighten monetary policy, ending its era of negative rates since 2016. Meanwhile, major Asian markets will be closed for half a week to celebrate national holidays.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (August)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (August)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Fed Interest Rate Decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">UK Interest Rate Decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Japan Interest Rate Decision</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday 18.09. 08:00 CET, UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (August)</h2> In July 2024, the annual inflation rate in the UK increased slightly to 2.2 per cent from 2 per cent in June, although it remained below the anticipated rate of 2.3 per cent. There was a more significant rise in costs for housing and household services (3.7 per cent compared to 2.3 per cent), as the decline in gas (-22.8 per cent from -37.5 per cent) and electricity prices (-19.5 per cent from -21 per cent) was less severe than in the prior month. Additionally, prices for clothing and footwear saw a greater increase (2.1 per cent from 1.6 per cent), along with communication services (4.5 per cent from 2.9 per cent) and various goods and services (3.5 per cent from 2.9 per cent).  Meanwhile, inflation remained unchanged for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.5 per cent) and education (4.5 per cent). Service inflation slowed to 5.2 per cent, marking the lowest rate since June 2022 and falling short of the Bank of England's forecast of 5.6 per cent. Prices for restaurants and hotels (4.9 per cent compared to 6.2 per cent) primarily reflected increases in hotel costs. In comparison, prices for recreation and culture rose (3.7 per cent from 3.9 per cent) along with transportation costs (0.2 per cent compared to 0.9 per cent), influenced mainly by maintenance and repairs (5.7 per cent from 8 per cent), passenger air transport (-10.4 per cent from -0.9 per cent), and motor fuels.  The core inflation rate decreased to 3.3 per cent, down from 3.5 per cent and below the expected 3.4 per cent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.2 per cent compared to June. Analysts expect the UK's inflation rate to remain unchanged at 2.2 per cent from the previous month's reading.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_UK_13.09.png" alt="UK inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bearish effect on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bullish for the GBP. Impact: USD/GBP, EUR/GBP <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday 18.09. 11:00 CET, Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (August)</h2> Initial estimates show that the annual inflation rate in the Euro Area dipped to 2.2 per cent in August 2024, down from 2.6 per cent in the previous month, in line with market expectations and representing the smallest increase in consumer prices since July 2021. This decline marked a shift from several months of persistent inflation above the 2.5 per cent level, suggesting a move towards the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2 per cent and creating a favourable environment for adjustments in interest rates by the central bank. The slowdown was primarily driven by a significant drop in energy prices, with base effects contributing to a decrease of -3 per cent in August compared to a rise of 1.2 per cent in July, while inflation for non-energy industrial goods also slowed to 0.4 per cent from 0.7 per cent. Conversely, inflation for services increased to 4.2 per cent from 4 per cent, and prices for food, alcohol, and tobacco rose to 2.4 per cent from 2.3 per cent. When excluding energy and unprocessed food, price growth remained steady at 2.8 per cent. On a monthly basis, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the Euro Area rose by 0.2 per cent in August. Analysts' expectations align with the initial estimates of the 2.2 per cent inflation rate in the Euro Area in August.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_EU_13.09.png" alt="chart EU inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bearish effect on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Wednesday 18.09. 20:00 CET, Fed Interest Rate Decision</h2> During his address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is likely to reduce interest rates in the upcoming September meeting. He pointed out that the US labour market is cooling rapidly, following the weaker jobs report from July and the recent downward revision of payroll figures. Powell also mentioned that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has become increasingly confident that inflation is trending towards the central bank's 2 per cent target, suggesting that it is an appropriate time to shift monetary policy toward less restrictive measures. This statement came after the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's previous meeting, which revealed that most policymakers concur that lowering the federal funds rate this quarter would be suitable.  Analysts expect the Fed funds interest rate to be lowered to 5.00 per cent in the upcoming meeting.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_USA_13.09.png" alt="US rate chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A decision on a higher-than-expected interest rate may have a bullish effect on the USD, while a decision on a lower-than-expected interest rate could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/GBP, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Thursday 19.09. 13:00 CET, UK Interest Rate Decision</h2> In its August meeting, the Bank of England reduced its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5 per cent, which was a move anticipated by a small majority of market participants. However, the Bank indicated it will proceed cautiously with any further easing of monetary policy until there is greater confidence that inflation will remain under control. This rate cut marks a decrease from the 16-year high at which the rate had been held for the past year. The decision was described as "finely balanced," with four members of the Monetary Policy Council choosing to keep borrowing costs unchanged. This choice reflected concerns that while UK inflation has slowed, rising service prices and potential second-round effects could undermine the progress made by the central bank. Nevertheless, the Committee remained confident that headline inflation would fall and that inflation expectations would move closer to target. The MPC also noted that restrictive policy is needed to slow GDP growth to below potential and to ease labour market conditions further, justifying a more accommodative policy stance.  Analysts expect the UK interest rate to stay unchanged at 5.00 per cent in the upcoming meeting.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_UK_13.09.png" alt="UK rate chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A decision on a higher-than-expected interest rate may have a bullish effect on the GBP, while a decision on a lower-than-expected interest rate could be bearish for the GBP. Impact: EUR/GBP, USD/GBP, GBP/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Friday 20.09. 05:00 CET, Japan Interest Rate Decision</h2> In its July 2024 meeting, the BoJ increased its key short-term interest rate to around 0.25 per cent, up from the previous 0 to 0.1 per cent established in March. The central bank also announced plans to reduce its monthly bond purchases to 3 trillion JPY between January and March 2026, down from the current 6 trillion JPY, as part of a move towards more conventional monetary policy. Starting in August, the BoJ will offer to buy 400 billion JPY of 5- and 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in each operation, eliminating the previous range of 400-550 billion JPY. These adjustments are aimed at decreasing the BoJ's nearly 5 trillion USD balance sheet and gradually withdrawing from the bond market. In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ revised its core inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2024 to about 2.5 per cent, down from the April estimate of 2.8 per cent. Inflation is expected to be around 2 per cent for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. The bank also reduced its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 0.6 per cent from 0.8 per cent due to a statistical revision while maintaining its 1.0 per cent growth outlook for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. Analysts expect Japan's interest rate to stay unchanged at 0.25 per cent in the upcoming meeting.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_japonia_13.09.png" alt="rate chart Japan" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A decision on a higher-than-expected interest rate may have a bullish effect on the JPY, while a decision on a lower-than-expected interest rate could be bearish for the JPY. Impact: EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY   Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.03 %  of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 13 Sep 2024 11:41:00 +0200An important week ahead for investors with the US Federal Reserve deciding on the first interest rate cut since March 2020. Along with the US colleagues, Bank of England (BoE) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy members will come together next week ...Next week to watch (9-13.09.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-9-13-09-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-9-13-09-2024The US bond yield curve, which had been inverted for the past two years, had returned to normal. This meant that short-term bonds offered higher yields than long-term bonds, which was counterintuitive. Historically, an inversion of this curve has always presaged a recession within a few to several months. In the coming week, Thursday's ECB interest rate decision, preceded by inflation readings in Germany and the US, will be key for investors.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (August)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (August)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Eurozone interest rate decision</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday, 10.09, 8:00 CET, German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (August)</h2> According to preliminary estimates, Germany's annual inflation rate fell from 2.3 per cent in July to 1.9 per cent in August 2024, the lowest level since March 2021. Compared to the previous month, the CPI fell by 0.1 per cent Meanwhile, an increase of 0.1 per cent was expected. Analysts' consensus is for CPI inflation to remain at 1.9 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_Niemcy_6.09.png" alt="graph inflation Germany" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 11.09, 14:30 CET, US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (August)</h2> US annual inflation fell to 2.9 per cent in July 2024, the lowest level since March 2021, down from 3 per cent in June. Housing, transport and clothing costs declined, while food inflation stabilised at 2.2 per cent. Analysts' consensus forecasts, a further decline in CPI inflation to 2.6 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflajca_USA_6.09.png" alt="graph US inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 12.09, 14:15 CET, Eurozone interest rate decision</h2> The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, in line with expectations. The main rate remains at 4.25 per cent. Despite high price pressures and inflation in the services sector, the ECB forecasts that inflation will remain above target until 2025. The Bank faces a difficult choice: to continue cutting rates, in line with market expectations and anticipated cuts in the US, or to maintain them at current levels. Analysts' consensus is for a 25bp cut in interest rates, to 4.00 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_proc_EBC_6.09.png" alt="ECB interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 06 Sep 2024 13:06:00 +0200The US bond yield curve, which had been inverted for the past two years, had returned to normal. This meant that short-term bonds offered higher yields than long-term bonds, which was counterintuitive. Historically, an inversion of this curve has always...Next week to watch (2-6.09.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-2-6-09-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-2-6-09-2024Nvidia, the leader in artificial intelligence, delivers record financial results in Q2 2024, with net profit up 168 per cent year-on-year. Despite this, the share price is down 6 per cent, suggesting that high investor expectations are triggering a reaction along the lines of ‘buy the rumours, sell the facts’. Although the current valuation of the stock seems appropriate, the market has reacted with a discount that may be a correction of earlier expectations. The company continues to cement its solidity, highlighted by an increase in its share buyback programme. The decline in Nvidia shares did not have a significant impact on the major indices. The US S&P 500 ended the week up 0.4 per cent, while the technology Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9 per cent. With each week, we move closer to historic highs. In the coming week, we will learn about interest rate decisions in Poland and Canada. However, investors' special attention is directed towards Friday's Eurozone GDP reading for the second quarter of this year and the US unemployment rate data. In particular, statistics from the US labour market could be crucial for currency quotations. After all, the latest reading crossed the threshold that has often heralded the onset of a recession, as evidenced by data from the past 50 years.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Interest rate decision in Poland</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Interest rate decision in Canada</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q2).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">US unemployment rate (August)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 4.09, 15:00 CET, interest rate decision in Poland</h2> The National Bank of Poland kept interest rates unchanged at 5.75 per cent for the ninth consecutive meeting in July. In August, the inflation rate rose to 4.3 per cent, exceeding the inflation target, which is in the range of 1.5-3.5 per cent. As a result, NBP President Adam Glapinski rejected the possibility of interest rate cuts this year. Analysts' consensus is for no change in NBP interest rates. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_PL_30.08.png" alt="Rate graph EN" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the PLN, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the PLN. Impact: EUR/PLN, USD/PLN, GBP/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 4.09, 15:45 CET, interest rate decision in Canada</h2> The Bank of Canada began a cycle of interest rate cuts in June, reducing the main rate by 25 bps and then again in July, to 4.5 per cent. The decision follows an oversupply in the economy, which has slowed inflation significantly. The Bank of Canada expects CPI inflation to fall further by the end of the year, and to stabilise at 2 per cent in 2025.  Analysts' consensus is for interest rates to be cut to 4.25 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_Kanada_30.08.png" alt="rate chart Canada" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for CAD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on CAD. Impact: USD/CAD, EUR/CAD <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 6.09, 11:00 CET, Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q2).</h2> According to preliminary data, Eurozone GDP grew by 0.6 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2024, the same as in the previous period. Growth was recorded in major economies such as France, Italy and Spain, but also in Belgium, Ireland, Portugal, Lithuania, Cyprus, Slovakia and Finland. In contrast, Germany's economy stalled at 0 per cent, while Latvia and Austria recorded declines. The European Commission forecasts the eurozone economy to grow by 0.8 per cent throughout 2024. Analysts' consensus is for eurozone GDP growth of 0.5 per cent year-on-year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_EU_30.08.png" alt="EU GDP graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 6.09, 14:30 CET, US unemployment rate (August)</h2> Investors' fears of a possible recession in the US increased after the unemployment rate rose from 3.7 per cent at the beginning of the year to 4.3 per cent in July. Nevertheless, this level remains historically low for the US economy. However, it is worth bearing in mind the so-called Sahm rule, which indicates that when the unemployment rate rises by more than 0.5 percentage points in 12 months, it often heralds the onset of a recession, as evidenced by data over the past 50 years.  The analysts' consensus, however, is for the unemployment rate to fall to 4.2 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_bezrobocie_USA_30.08.png" alt="graph US unemployment" /> Impact: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bullishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 30 Aug 2024 14:21:00 +0200Nvidia, the leader in artificial intelligence, delivers record financial results in Q2 2024, with net profit up 168 per cent year-on-year. Despite this, the share price is down 6 per cent, suggesting that high investor expectations are triggering a reac...Nvidia's record result and investors hold their breath - what's behind the share fall?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/nvidia-s-record-result-and-investors-hold-their-breath-what-s-behind-the-share-fallhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/nvidia-s-record-result-and-investors-hold-their-breath-what-s-behind-the-share-fallNvidia's financial results again exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts. Despite this, the share price in after-hours trading fell by up to 8 per cent. After the opening of trading on the German market, the decline narrowed to 3 per cent. It seems that the very high expectations of investors confirmed the stock market saying: ‘buy the rumours, sell the facts’. No matter how good the company's results and forecasts would have been, the market could have reacted with a discount. Therefore, let's take a look at what is behind the decline in Nvidia shares?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What has happened on the markets?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Is Nvidia overvalued?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What has happened on the markets?</h2> The fall in the shares of a key AI technology player caused Nasdaq 100 index contracts to fall by more than 1 per cent and most large technology companies to be discounted. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Nvidia_30.08.png" alt="Nvidia chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, NVIDIA, Daily In Q2 2024, the company reported record revenues of $30 billion, up 122 per cent year-on-year. Net profit grew 168 per cent year-on-year, which translated into a net profit margin of as much as 55 per cent. The biggest sales growth came from the data centre segment, driven by demand for the Hopper GPU platform used in AI applications. The company plans to introduce the new Blackwell architecture in Q4 this year, which may have worried markets hoping for an earlier deployment. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Is Nvidia overvalued?</h2> From a fundamentals perspective, the current share price assumes an average annual improvement in financial performance of around 40 per cent over the next 10 years. The company is growing in line with these assumptions, although it may experience a slowdown in earnings growth in the future. Based on these assumptions, the company's current valuation appears neither overvalued nor undervalued. Noteworthy is the significant increase in the distribution of earnings to shareholders, particularly through the share buyback programme, which has been extended by an additional $50bn, up from the previous $7.4bn. Conotoxia Ltd. believes that the current market discount can only be a correction of earlier expectations, as Nvidia fundamentally still looks solid. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_wycena_Nvidii_ENG_30.08.png" alt="Nvidia valuation table" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CIIA, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 30 Aug 2024 09:13:00 +0200Nvidia's financial results again exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts. Despite this, the share price in after-hours trading fell by up to 8 per cent. After the opening of trading on the German market, the decline narrowed to 3 per cent. It seems ...These Smart Beta ETFs have been beating the broad market for many years!https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/these-smart-beta-etfs-have-been-beating-the-broad-market-for-many-yearshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/these-smart-beta-etfs-have-been-beating-the-broad-market-for-many-yearsSmart Beta ETFs are a type of fund that combines features of traditional passively managed ETFs with elements of active management strategies. Unlike classic ETFs, which replicate popular market indices , Smart Beta ETFs seek to outperform the market by selecting stocks according to specific rules, known as ‘smart beta’, while keeping management costs low. Let's take a look at the best of these, which have beaten broad indices in past years.<h3>Table of contnets:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">iShares Semiconductor ETF</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF</h2> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Momentum_ETF_28.08.png" alt="chart Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF" /> Source: Tradingview The first is the interestingly structured Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF, based on a momentum strategy. The fund twice a year increases the share of stocks from the S&P 500 index that are trending upwards and decreases their share when they start to fall. This has allowed it to achieve a return of 134 per cent over five years, compared to 91 per cent for the S&P 500 index alone, while maintaining a management cost of just 0.13 per cent.  <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF</h2> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Exploration_Production_ETF_28.08.png" alt="chart Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF" /> Source: Tradingview The other fund beating the broad market, with a 146 per cent return over the past five years, is the Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF. It focuses on investing in companies in the US energy sector, mainly those involved in the exploration, production and processing of energy commodities such as oil and natural gas. This fund has continued to increase in value despite the fact that the price of oil has risen by 43 per cent over these five years. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF</h2> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Russe_Growth_ETF_28.08.png" alt="chart iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF" /> Source: Tradingview A third fund that regularly outperforms the broad market is the iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF, which has delivered a total return of 157 per cent over the past five years. The fund invests in shares of US companies with large market capitalisations that stand out for their above-average earnings growth forecast potential over the coming years. <h2 id="heading-scroll4">First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF</h2> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Industrial_Renaissance_ETF_28.08.png" alt="chart First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF" /> Source: Tradingview Another more concentrated fund that has outperformed the major indices over the years is the First Trust RBA American Industrial Renaissance ETF, with a return of 182 per cent over the past five years. The fund invests in shares of companies in the US industrial sector, covering manufacturing, construction, transportation, industrial technology and industrial services. The success of this fund can be attributed to the fact that all companies included in the index must have a positive analyst consensus earnings forecast. Otherwise, they are excluded. This allows the index to naturally and quickly purge itself of less promising assets. An additional advantage of the fund is that the companies held appear to be relatively cheap, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.7, compared to 29 for the S&P 500 index. <h2 id="heading-scroll5">iShares Semiconductor ETF</h2> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Semiconductor_ETF_28.08.png" alt="chart iShares Semiconductor ETF" /> Source: Tradingview An impressive return of more than 200 per cent over the past five years has been achieved by the iShares Semiconductor ETF. This fund offers exposure to semiconductor companies. The dynamic growth in this case can be attributed to the developing artificial intelligence technology, which relies heavily on semiconductors, graphics cards and processors. However, it is worth bearing in mind that this fund is focused on a single sector, which means that it does not benefit from sector diversification. As a result, it is 60 per cent more volatile than the broad market. However, the dynamic development of artificial intelligence technology and the investments announced by major technology giants in data centres and AI development may continue to support the earnings growth of semiconductor companies.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 28 Aug 2024 15:22:00 +0200Smart Beta ETFs are a type of fund that combines features of traditional passively managed ETFs with elements of active management strategies. Unlike classic ETFs, which replicate popular market indices (such as the S&P 500), Smart Beta ETFs seek to out...Investing in the face of crisis: how to protect yourself, what moves to avoid?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/investing-in-the-face-of-crisis-how-to-protect-yourself-what-moves-to-avoidhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/investing-in-the-face-of-crisis-how-to-protect-yourself-what-moves-to-avoidInvesting involves risk, especially when investing in equities and ETFs. Stock market crashes are a natural part of this market, so it is worth being prepared for this eventuality. If we expect falls, we should first determine our investment horizon and understand the value of the assets we hold. If our horizon is less than 12 months or we are unsure about the future of our investments, it is worth considering several scenarios.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Two basic principles of investment</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How to hedge your investment portfolio against risk?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">What to avoid during a crisis?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Two basic principles of investment</h2> One solution that may come to mind is to sell the investment. However, this should be a last resort, in the words of Warren Buffett: ‘The first rule of investing is don't lose money, and the second rule is don't forget rule number one’. If you do decide to sell, it is worth moving the funds into safer assets, such as government bonds or deposits, to keep them working. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How to hedge your investment portfolio against risk?</h2> We do not have to sell our shares or funds to hedge against falls. We can use portfolio hedging by using contracts for difference (CFDs) on shares, ETFs or other instruments available from brokers. In this way, we can temporarily hedge the value of the portfolio against market movements. Futures contracts, which were originally used for hedging, are now also used for speculation, offering short-term investments with lower transaction costs and leverage. Hedge funds use them for arbitrage, earning money from differences in valuations, which increases liquidity and market efficiency, although it requires sophisticated systems and large amounts of capital. More sophisticated investors can use options, which give the right (rather than the obligation) to sell at a certain price. However, this requires a fee called a premium and more knowledge, but allows you to hedge against dips while leaving you with the opportunity to profit on rises. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">What to avoid during a crisis?</h2> Perhaps the worst decision is to sell an investment simply because it has fallen in value. It is worth remembering the difference between investing and speculation. We invest in assets whose intrinsic value is higher than the market. Speculation, on the other hand, is based on anticipating short-term price movements, driven by massive market behaviour.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 27 Aug 2024 12:43:00 +0200Investing involves risk, especially when investing in equities and ETFs. Stock market crashes are a natural part of this market, so it is worth being prepared for this eventuality. If we expect falls, we should first determine our investment horizon and...Next week to watch (26-30.08.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-26-30-08-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-26-30-08-2024The main US S&P 500 index has returned to near its historic highs. In contrast, Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which was hit hard during ‘Black Monday’, has gained more than 23 per cent from its low in just two weeks. This may suggest that investors have returned to ‘Risk ON’ mode and have started buying risky assets again, including cryptocurrencies, among others. The NBP increased its purchases of gold, becoming the largest buyer globally in the second quarter of this year. Gold has gained 21 per cent since the start of the year, outperforming many key assets. The rise in bullion prices is mainly driven by central bank purchases, which are hedging against a possible recession and geopolitical uncertainty. The coming week will see final Q2 GDP data for Germany, the US and Poland, which will help assess the risk of a global recession. The week will conclude with Eurozone inflation data for August. These may influence the pace of interest rate cuts by the ECB.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Poland's gross domestic product (GDP) in quarterly terms (Q2)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (August)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday, 27.08, 8:00 a.m. CET, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)</h2> Preliminary data show that the German economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1 per cent (q/q) in the second quarter of 2024. The decline is mainly due to lower domestic investment, influenced by high interest rates. On an annual basis, the economy also contracted by 0.1 per cent, marking the fifth consecutive quarter without growth. The European Commission forecasts that the German economy will grow by 0.1 per cent in 2024, although investment and exports will remain low.  Analysts' consensus forecasts a 0.1 per cent fall in GDP in the second quarter. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB)niemiec_23.08.png" alt="graph of German GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 29.08, 10:00 CET, Poland's gross domestic product (GDP) in quarterly terms (Q2)</h2> Preliminary data show that in the second quarter of 2024, non-seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 3.2 per cent in real terms year-on-year, compared to a decline of 0.6 per cent in the corresponding period of 2023. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of GDP growth, indicating that the Polish economy, despite a noticeable slowdown in Europe, continues to develop dynamically.  Analysts' consensus is to confirm Poland's GDP growth at 3.2 per cent year-on-year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_PL_23.08.png" alt="graph of Poland's GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the PLN, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the PLN. Impact: EUR/PLN, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 29.08, 14:30 CET, US gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)</h2> The US economy grew by 2.8 per cent in Q2 2024, beating forecasts and the Q1 result (1.4 per cent). Consumer spending grew, especially on cars and fuel, although spending on services slowed somewhat. Business investment increased, but residential investment declined. Government increased spending, mainly on defence. However, international trade held back growth as imports grew faster than exports. Analysts' consensus is for US GDP growth to remain at 2.8 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_USA_23.08.png" alt="graph of US GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 30.08, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (August)</h2> Annual inflation in the euro area rose to 2.6 per cent in July 2024 from 2.5 per cent in June, beating market expectations. Energy costs rose sharply, while inflation in industrial goods remained stable. However, food, alcohol and tobacco inflation declined. Among the zone's largest economies, inflation was highest in France (2.7 per cent) and Germany (2.6 per cent) and lowest in Italy (1.6 per cent). Analysts' consensus is for CPI inflation in the euro area to fall to 2.3 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_UE_23.08.png" alt="EU inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 23 Aug 2024 13:56:00 +0200The main US S&P 500 index has returned to near its historic highs. In contrast, Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which was hit hard during ‘Black Monday’, has gained more than 23 per cent from its low in just two weeks. This may suggest that investors have ret...Poland is the largest buyer of gold in the world! Is it currently a good investment?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/poland-is-the-largest-buyer-of-gold-in-the-world-is-it-currently-a-good-investmenthttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/poland-is-the-largest-buyer-of-gold-in-the-world-is-it-currently-a-good-investmentThe National Bank of Poland purchased 18.7 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of this year, becoming the largest buyer in the world ahead of India and Turkey. During this time, the price of the king of metals exceeded the record level of $2,500 per ounce. The NBP also announced investments in corporate bonds and foreign equities through ETF funds, which may indicate a move to diversify reserves and increase their yield.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">This is not the end of gold shopping!</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Is this the end of the rises in gold?</a></li> </ol> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">This is not the end of gold shopping!</h2> Demand for this bullion from central banks may continue. This is evidenced, among other things, by the announcement of the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapinski: ‘We will continue to buy gold. We dream of reaching a 20 percent share of gold in our reserves'. At present, the share of bullion in the NBP's reserves is 14.7 percent and continues to grow. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_rezerwy_z%C5%82ota_NBP_22.08.png" alt="chart of the NBP gold reserve" /> Source: Conotoxia own study, NBP data At the end of the second quarter of this year, Poland's gold reserves rose to 377.4 tonnes, and the pace of purchases of the bullion, held mainly in London, at the Bank of England, since April this year has surpassed even the world's largest economies. According to the World Gold Council, Poland was the world leader in Q2 this year alone, buying 18.7 tonnes of gold. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zakupy_w_IIIkw_22.08.png" alt="gold purchases in the second quarter" /> Source: WGC In Q2 2024, global gold demand, excluding over-the-counter (OTC) investments, fell by 6 percent y/y to 929 tonnes. The decline is mainly due to a 19 percent reduction in jewellery consumption, in response to record high prices for the king of metals. However, including OTC investments, total gold demand increased by 4 percent y/y to reach 1,258 tonnes, the highest level since 2000. Much of this demand was generated by central banks, which increased their purchases by 6 percent, adding 183 tonnes, mainly to protect and diversify their portfolios. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zakupy_z%C5%82ota_22.08.png" alt="chart of gold purchases" /> Source: WGC <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Is this the end of the rises in gold?</h2> The gold market, like many others, is driven by two forces: demand and supply. In the past few quarters, an increase in demand has been particularly evident. Investors and central banks are keen to buy gold because it is seen as a safe haven, especially during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Moreover, the continued weakening of the dollar may indicate that gold could outperform other key assets in the near term. Conotoxia Ltd.'s baseline scenario assumes that gold price momentum could slow down by the end of the year, with a possible correction, but is likely to remain above the $2,500 per ounce level. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_cena_z%C5%82ota_22.08.png" alt="chart gold price" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XAUUSD, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 22 Aug 2024 13:18:00 +0200The National Bank of Poland purchased 18.7 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of this year, becoming the largest buyer in the world ahead of India and Turkey. During this time, the price of the king of metals exceeded the record level of $2,500 per ou...Superinvestors, including Warren Buffett and Michael Burry, sell off shares!https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/superinvestors-including-warren-buffett-and-michael-burry-sell-off-shareshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/superinvestors-including-warren-buffett-and-michael-burry-sell-off-sharesWe have now received virtually all of the Q2 13F reports from superinvestors managing capital in excess of $100m. These documents reveal transactions by major players in the US market.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Superinvestors on the stock exchanges: much more sold than bought</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Buffett like Scrooge McDuck is currently sitting on a huge amount of cash</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Michael Burry and the rising bet on China</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Conclusions</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Superinvestors on the stock exchanges: much more sold than bought</h2> Despite robust market gains in Q2 2024, many super investors sold off stocks rather than buying them. The largest sell-offs were in stocks from the financial, consumer goods and technology sectors. In contrast, the largest purchases were focused on companies in the industrials, basic goods and healthcare sectors, which seems to indicate a defensive approach by investors. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zakupy_superinwestor%C3%B3w_20.08.png" alt="chart of superinvestor purchases" /> Source: Dataroma The most popular stock was Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fund, which attracted 9 super investors. In second place was healthcare company United Health Group, which gained 8 investors. Despite the general defensiveness towards the technology sector, the third most popular company was technology giant Microsoft. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Buffett like Scrooge McDuck is currently sitting on a huge amount of cash</h2> The biggest changes have taken place at Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffett sold almost half of his largest investment, Apple. This sale led to a record level of cash and short-term bonds of $276.9 billion. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BerkshireHa_20.08.png" alt="Berkshire Hathaway chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BerkshireHa, Daily Buffett focused on selling off shares in Q2, completely divesting Snowflake and Paramount Global and reducing positions in Chevron. It seems that the high level of safety has led to Warren Buffett's shares already breaking through their historic peaks after ‘Black Monday’. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_portfel_buffetta_20.08.png" alt="Buffett's portfolio table" /> Source: Dataroma <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Michael Burry and the rising bet on China</h2> Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has increased his investments in Chinese companies Baidu and Alibaba. At the end of Q2, US-listed Chinese stocks accounted for as much as 45.9 per cent of his total investments. His portfolio underwent significant changes. He sold off all the gold he had purchased a quarter earlier, and disposed of transport, oil and financial companies. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Baidu_20.08.png" alt="Baidu chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Baidu, Daily New investments include Shift4 Payments, a payment solutions company, Molina Healthcare, a provider of healthcare services in the Medicaid and Medicare programmes, and Hudson Pacific Properties, a company that manages commercial real estate, including office buildings and film studios. The value of his equity portfolio halved from the first quarter, which may suggest that Burry, like Buffett, is betting on liquid capital and high interest income. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_Burry_20.08.png" alt="Burr's portfolio table" /> Source: Dataroma <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Conclusions</h2> It seems that super investors currently approach today's market realities with a great deal of detachment. It is difficult to look for, for example, the pursuit of the artificial intelligence companies so popular today in their investment decisions. It is more likely to be interpreted as an increase in concern and asset protection.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 20 Aug 2024 12:42:00 +0200We have now received virtually all of the Q2 13F reports from superinvestors managing capital in excess of $100m. These documents reveal transactions by major players in the US market.Next week to watch (19-23.08.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-19-23-08-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-19-23-08-2024The S&P 500 Index has already rebounded by more than 8 per cent from the bottom reached during ‘Black Monday’ and is now just 2.2 per cent below historic highs. A similar situation is taking place on almost all domestic indices, especially the Japanese Nikkei 225, which has gained more than 22 per cent since the peak of the panic. In order to better understand the current situation and assess whether we are in a recession, let us summarise the most important macroeconomic data from the United States. US GDP grew by 2.8 per cent in the second quarter. The disinflation process continues, although inflation remains above target. Unemployment rose from 3.5 per cent to 4.3 per cent, but is still lower than in most years of rapid growth. Despite the rise in unemployment, there was no increase in new unemployment benefits or a decline in job openings, which may indicate sectoral turnover among workers. Most companies reported an increase in second-quarter earnings, with as many as 75 per cent beating analysts' expectations. PMI leading indicators point to continued growth in the services sector and a slowdown in the industrial sector. Consequently, the current market discount may reflect a worst-case scenario for which we do not yet have confirmation in the data. Even the most sceptical investment bank JP Morgan forecasts the probability of a recession at 35 per cent by the end of this year and 45 per cent by the end of 2025. In the coming week, macroeconomic data releases will start on Tuesday with the July inflation reading in the euro area. On Wednesday, we will learn details of the discussion from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee , responsible for setting interest rate levels in the United States. We will end the week with a confirmation of expectations for the future situation in the US industrial sector, the PMI reading.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (July)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">FOMC meeting minutes</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US manufacturing leading indicators (PMIs) for August</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday, 20.08, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (July)</h2> Inflation in the euro area rose to 2.6 per cent in July 2024 from 2.5 per cent in June, contrary to forecasts of a fall. Energy prices rose significantly and non-energy industrial goods prices also rose faster. However, inflation slowed in services and in the food, alcohol and tobacco categories. Among the largest euro area economies, inflation rose in Germany, France and Italy, but fell in Spain. Analysts' forecast is for CPI inflation to rise to 2.6 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_EU_16.08.png" alt="EU inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 21.08, 20:00 CET, FOMC meeting minutes</h2> At the last FOMC meeting in June, among other things, the market's outlook was discussed, which at that time was still anticipating one possible 25 basis point interest rate cut by the end of the year. Now, following poorer labour market data, these expectations have changed dramatically, rising to three cuts of at least 25 basis points each. Resident FOMC members expect the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction to end around April 2025, which could have a positive impact on financial markets. However, the US economy continues to grow at a solid pace. Consumer inflation has declined from last year, but progress towards the 2 per cent inflation target is slow. A more hawkish tone to the latest minutes could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a more dovish tone could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 22.08, 14:30 CET, US manufacturing leading indicators (PMIs) for August</h2> One of the factors that triggered the discount on ‘Black Monday’ was the much worse-than-expected results from the US manufacturing leading indicator, the ISM. On Thursday, we will learn the readings of its counterpart from another agency, which will confirm or deny the expected weakening of manufacturing in the coming quarters. The last PMI reading of 49.6 (50 being the cut-off) spoke of a slowdown in this sector of the economy. When the similarly constructed ISM index fell to 46.8 against expectations of 48.8. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PMI_USA_16.08.png" alt="US industry PMI chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 16 Aug 2024 12:48:00 +0200The S&P 500 Index has already rebounded by more than 8 per cent from the bottom reached during ‘Black Monday’ and is now just 2.2 per cent below historic highs. A similar situation is taking place on almost all domestic indices, especially the Japanese ...Starbucks stock jumps – should investors jump with it? https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/research-articles/starbucks-stock-jumps-should-investors-jump-with-ithttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/research-articles/starbucks-stock-jumps-should-investors-jump-with-itStarbucks stock skyrocketed 18% at the market opening on Tuesday, 13/08, and added another 6% during the day, leading to the most significant one-day stock price increase since Starbucks became a publicly traded company in 1992. This happened because the Company announced that its current CEO is stepping down from his position, and Brian Niccol will take over on September 9th. Who is Brian Niccol, and will he solve all of Starbucks's problems? Starbucks stocks have been struggling since April 2023, when lowered consumer discretionary spending in the US led to weak demand and dispirited investors. Before yesterday's jump, Starbucks stock had lost 36% of its value over that period. <h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Consumers cutting on discretionary spending</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">The whole discretionary sector suffering</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">The new Starbucks CEO, Brian Niccol</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Should you jump on the “Starbucks train”?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Conclusion</a></li> </ol> </ol> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Starbucks_14.08.png" alt="Starbucks chart" /> Source: Tradingview.com <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Consumers cutting on discretionary spending</h2> Consumers may be limiting their afternoon pick-me-up cup of coffee (or at least making it on their own), expressing their fatigue from the ever-growing prices.  The latest quarter sales ending on June 2024 continued disappointing Starbucks' investors, although not as much as feared. While lower than a year ago, the key financial data came out better than investors expected. The Company reported the adjusted EPS at 0.93 USD versus the expected 0.92 USD, leading to a 6% boost in the stock price. However, the hype was short-lived, and the stock price fell back to its pre-earnings level in 2 days. More company-specific data also showed challenges in its home market, the US. In the latest quarter, same-store sales declined by 2%, and foot traffic dropped by 6%.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_ENG_Q3_14.08.png" alt="Q3 table" /> Source: Starbucks financial statements According to analysts, Starbucks' challenges may be linked to broader cyclical macroeconomic factors and may lead to weaker sales in most of fiscal 2024. The 2024 forecasts have already been adjusted for the third time this year. The Company reported anticipated global revenue growth in the low single digits for 2024, a reduction from the earlier projection of 7% to 10%, which was previously cut from an original estimate of 10% to 12%. Starbucks sales have declined not only in the US but also in its second-largest market, China, which is experiencing the most significant decline among all regions. Same-store sales dropped by 14% compared to the last quarter, which had already seen an 11% decrease. Both foot traffic and average transaction value in China fell by 7%. The Company has attributed this downturn to higher consumer caution along with increased competition over the past year. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">The whole discretionary sector suffering</h2> Starbucks is not the only discretionary Company affected by the cautioned spending habits. Discretionary stocks have underperformed the overall S&P500 index by 15 percentage points or more than 3 times in the last 12 months (+21.74% for the S&P500 versus +6.72% for the S&P500 Consumer Discretionary sector). Meanwhile, the difference between the year-to-date performance of both indices is even larger: +13.93% for the S&P500 versus +0.73% for the S&P500 Consumer Discretionary sector.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_S%26P500_14.08.png" alt="S&P 500 chart" /> Source: S&Pglobal.com <h2 id="heading-scroll3">The new Starbucks CEO, Brian Niccol</h2> Activist investor Elliott Investment Management has been pressuring Starbucks to make some changes amid falling sales. Brian Niccol may be one of the changes the activist investor had in mind. Until now, Brian Niccol was the CEO of Chipotle, previously holding a leadership position at Taco Bell. Under his stewardship, Chipotle's stock price increased by an impressive 773%. He played a key role in helping the chain recover from a foodborne illness crisis and successfully guided the restaurants during the pandemic. Recently, while many other restaurants faced a significant decline in consumer spending, Chipotle has experienced growth in traffic and sales, defying the overall trend. One of Chipotle's key advantages during Niccol's leadership has been its mobile app, which has significantly contributed to the Company's robust performance in recent quarters. In contrast, Starbucks' app has been criticized for its disappointing results. Starbucks' former CEO, Howard Schultz, and other critics of Starbucks have highlighted the excessive number of mobile orders leading to delayed service and a negative impact on the customer experience. <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Should you jump on the “Starbucks train”?</h2> Starbucks' stock price jump indicated that investors may believe in Brian Niccol and his power to turn around the Company's recent distress. Combined with his success in growing Chipotle's stock price up 773%, investors may be inclined to jump on the "Starbucks train of success" while its stock is still trading below 100 USD.  While it was certainly nice to wake up at the stock up around 20% on Tuesday morning for those investors already owning Starbucks stocks, let us look at the critical valuation figures to understand whether it would still be reasonable to purchase them now.  As Starbucks stock depreciated over the last year, its valuation multiples were lower than the average multiples of the S&P500 Consumer discretionary companies, suggesting a certain attractiveness. However, after the most recent jump, Starbucks stocks no longer look as attractive. Both Price-to-Earnings and Price-to-Sales ratios are now just above the sector average numbers.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_ENG_wska%C5%BAniki_14.08.png" alt="table indicators" /> Source: finance.yahoo.com, eqvista.com, author calculations Another valuation multiple, Price-to-Book value, was not calculated as the Company has accumulated large amounts of debt, leading to a book value of -8 billion USD and negative shareholders' equity. The massive debt may also be a reason to think twice before investing in Starbucks. Furthermore, more often than not, such gaps in stock and other financial instrument prices tend to close over time, meaning that once the initial hype around the new CEO settles, Starbucks' stock price may lower to previous levels.  <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Conclusion</h2> Brian Niccol may just be the breath of fresh air Starbucks needs after changing the CEO for the fourth time in two years. His previous achievements in similar consumer discretionary companies suggest that Starbucks may soon experience positive changes, including growth in its stock price. However, Starbucks operates in a relatively saturated market with numerous lower-cost competitors and consumers looking to skip another cup of overpriced coffee. Furthermore, Niccol may be facing different challenges with Starbucks as it has a more complicated structure and much more international presence than Chipotle. It may be interesting to watch whether the new CEO will try to lower the amount of debt obtained by Starbucks in the past; however, for now, the negative book value might be a reason for some investors to decide not to invest in Starbucks shares.  Furthermore, the Company still needs to stop its decreasing sales and profitability ratios to improve its attractiveness among investors. Until that happens, a new CEO may not be a good enough reason to decide on investing in a company that just became 24% more expensive to own.  Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. <div id="gtx-trans" style="position: absolute; left: -34px; top: 4036.17px;"> <div class="gtx-trans-icon"> </div> </div>forex conotoxia.comWed, 14 Aug 2024 16:36:00 +0200Starbucks stock skyrocketed 18% at the market opening on Tuesday, 13/08, and added another 6% during the day, leading to the most significant one-day stock price increase since Starbucks became a publicly traded company in 1992. This happened because th...Why doesn't OPEC see a recession in the US? What's next for the oil price?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-doesn-t-opec-see-a-recession-in-the-us-what-s-next-for-the-oil-pricehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-doesn-t-opec-see-a-recession-in-the-us-what-s-next-for-the-oil-priceOPEC's latest report revised downwards its forecasts for oil demand in 2025.The slowdown is expected to affect two key economic regions: China and the Middle East. Despite this, the data clearly indicates an expected global oil shortage, already exceeding the levels seen after the post-pandemic unfreeze in 2021, when the price of crude experienced its fastest increase in years.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What is driving global oil price rises?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Oil price forecast</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What is driving global oil price rises?</h2> According to OPEC, global consumption is expected to increase by 1.7 per cent in 2025. On the other hand, global production is expected to increase by 1.1 per cent next year, driven by production increases of 2.3 per cent in the United States and 3.6 per cent in Latin America. The leaders in consumption growth are likely to be India, with a projected growth rate of 4.1 per cent, and China, with a 2.4 per cent increase next year.  Global oil shortages could exceed 2 per cent of demand volumes, which is higher than in 2021, when the oil price rose 53 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_niedobory_ropy_14.08.png" alt="graph of oil market shortages" /> Source: Conotoxia own study, OPEC data <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Oil price forecast</h2> Petrol station prices in Poland, the UK and the US have fallen significantly since May - by 3.7 per cent in our country and the UK, and by 8.9 per cent in the US.  Possible increases in market prices will affect each of these countries to varying degrees, but the direction of change should remain uniform for all economies. In the event of increased crude prices on the financial markets, we are therefore likely to pay more for fuel at the pump. Currently, the price of oil is rebounding to around $80 per barrel, and in the short term it is being driven by both the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East and a decline in fears of a possible recession in the United States. Consequently, our base case scenario assumes a continuation of oil price rises, with the possibility of exceeding the $90 per barrel ceiling by the end of this year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_crude_oil_14.08.png" alt="XTIUSD chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XTIUSD, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 14 Aug 2024 09:23:00 +0200OPEC's latest report revised downwards its forecasts for oil demand in 2025.The slowdown is expected to affect two key economic regions: China and the Middle East. Despite this, the data clearly indicates an expected global oil shortage, already exceedi...Next week to watch (12-15.08.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-12-15-08-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-12-15-08-2024After 'Black Monday', which caused significant declines in financial markets, the situation is slowly stabilising, although uncertainty still prevails. The Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 indices recovered some of their earlier losses of 5.4 per cent and 13.3 per cent respectively. The panic in the markets was caused by fears of a recession in the US, the Fed's delayed response and the Bank of Japan's change in policy, which affected the strengthening of the yen and falls in Japanese stocks. The Fed faces a difficult choice between fighting inflation and preventing a recession, leading the market to expect interest rate cuts. Economic data such as the rise in unemployment and the decline in the ISM business climate index are cause for concern, but economic growth and still low unemployment claims suggest that the recession has not yet begun. An additional destabilising factor for the markets was the termination of the Carry Trade strategy due to the rise in interest rates in Japan. This forced funds to close losing positions, exacerbating the sell-off in markets. Despite the strengthening of the yen, real interest rates in Japan remain negative, which continues to support the strengthening US dollar. Warren Buffett, through his Berkshire Hathaway fund, has sold almost half of his stake in Apple, surprising many investors. Despite his previous praise for Apple, Buffett made the decision to sell because he felt the company's shares were overvalued - the price-to-earnings ratio had risen from 12 to 32 since Buffett first bought the shares in 2016. Berkshire Hathaway's fund has raised a record amount of cash and short-term government bonds worth more than $270bn, which is expected to bring safe returns to the company. Buffett has also made other sales, including shares in Bank of America.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US producer price index (PPI) on a monthly basis (July)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (July)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (July)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q2)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday, 13.08, 14:30 CET, US producer price index (PPI) on a monthly basis (July)</h2> US producer prices rose by 2.6 per cent year-on-year in June this year. This was the highest increase since March 2023. The reading beat the upwardly revised 2.4 per cent increase in May and also exceeded market expectations of 2.3 per cent. Analysts' forecast is for PPI inflation to remain at 2.6 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PPI_USA_09.08.png" alt="US PPI chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 14.08, 8:00 CET, UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (July)</h2> Annual inflation in the UK remained at 2 per cent in June, in line with May, although 1.9 per cent was forecast. The rise in inflation was mainly driven by higher prices in restaurants, hotels and transport, where second-hand cars and airfares in particular became more expensive. On the other hand, the decline in inflation was driven by lower prices for clothing, footwear and food and non-alcoholic beverages. Housing and utilities prices continued to fall, while inflation in services and leisure remained stable. The current analyst forecast is for CPI inflation to rise to 2.3 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_UK_09.08.png" alt="UK CPI chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on GBP. Impact: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Wednesday, 14.08, 14:30 CET, US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (July)</h2> Annual inflation in the US fell for the third consecutive month in June to 3 per cent, the lowest level in a year. A reading of 3.3 per cent was recorded in May, and forecasts for June were for inflation of 3.1 per cent. Energy costs rose at a slower rate than in the previous month, with gasoline and heating oil the main contributors. Inflation also fell for accommodation and transport, new and used vehicles. In contrast, food price dynamics accelerated slightly. The monthly CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.1 per cent, the first decline since 2020. The current analyst forecast is for US CPI inflation to fall to 2.9 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_USA_09.08.png" alt="chart of the US CPI" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Thursday, 15.08, 1:50 CET, Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly (Q2)</h2> In the first quarter of this year, Japan's GDP fell by 0.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter, which was also a year-on-year decline of 0.2 per cent. This was the first decline in GDP since 2021, confirming that Japan's economy is not yet out of its generational stagnation. Private consumption fell for the fourth consecutive quarter, mainly due to the high cost of living, low wages and the earthquake. Analysts' current forecast is for Japan's GDP to grow by 0.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_japonii_09.08.png" alt="Japan's GDP graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the JPY, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the JPY. Impact: EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, Nikkei 225   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 09 Aug 2024 12:54:00 +0200After 'Black Monday', which caused significant declines in financial markets, the situation is slowly stabilising, although uncertainty still prevails. The Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 indices recovered some of their earlier losses of 5.4 per cent and 13.3...Why did Warren Buffett sell Apple shares?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-did-warren-buffett-sell-apple-shareshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-did-warren-buffett-sell-apple-sharesBerkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's fund has sold almost half of its stake in Apple representing the largest position in the Fund's portfolio. In doing so, the investment vehicle amassed a record amount of cash and short-term government bonds totalling more than $270 billion. Why did he make this decision?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Buffett's record cash and short-term government bonds</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Why did Buffett sell Apple shares?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Apple's P/E ratio</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Buffett's record cash and short-term government bonds</h2> Berkshire Hathaway currently holds more short-term US Treasury bonds than the Federal Reserve. At the end of the second quarter of 2024, the fund had increased its holdings of these bonds by 81 per cent compared to the end of 2023, reaching $234.6 billion. This is a staggering amount given that the Federal Reserve currently holds $195.3 billion of them. These are expected to bring Buffett's firm around $12bn in safe profits per year. This is a record amount, even if we take the proportion of cash and said short-term bonds as a percentage of total assets. It accounted for 25 per cent of the fund's total balance sheet at the end of June. To date, it has hardly exceeded 16 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Cash_BerkshireHa_09.08.png" alt="Berkshire Hathaway cash graph" /> Source: Conotoxia Own study <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Why did Buffett sell Apple shares?</h2> The sale of Apple's shares surprised many investors following the actions of the 'Oracle of Omaha', as only three months earlier Warren Buffett had praised the company's actions. This reminds us of the basic investment principle advocated by New York University professor Aswath Damodaran: "keep your eyes on the price". Even the best company can be overvalued, as the legendary investor now apparently recognises. When Buffett first bought Apple's shares in 2016, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 12. This has now risen to 32. This means that although the company's business fundamentals have remained unchanged, its shares are now relatively almost three times more expensive than before, which may be an indication of its market overvaluation. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Apple's P/E ratio</h2> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PE_Apple_09.08.png" alt="chart of Apple's P/E ratio" /> Source: Macrotrends The famous investor seems to be suggesting that there are currently few attractive opportunities among the largest US companies that could be potential investments for such a large fund, in fact we are seeing an oversaturation. Among the other deals Berkshire Hathaway has done is selling shares in Bank of America for $3.8 billion. So far, it was the second largest item in his portfolio, the contents of which we will know in detail in the coming days. This is because 15 August is the deadline for the 13F report, in which super-investors with more than $100 million in capital are required to report their transactions made on the US stock exchange in the last quarter. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_berkshireHa_09.08.png" alt="Berkshire Hathaway chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BerkshireHa, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 08 Aug 2024 16:35:00 +0200Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's fund has sold almost half of its stake in Apple representing the largest position in the Fund's portfolio. In doing so, the investment vehicle amassed a record amount of cash and short-term government bonds totalling...Landscape after the battle. What do markets look like after 'Black Monday'?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/landscape-after-the-battle-what-do-markets-look-like-after-black-mondayhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/landscape-after-the-battle-what-do-markets-look-like-after-black-mondayThe threat is scarier than its implementation. This saying perfectly encapsulates the current stock market situation, especially in the context of concerns about, among other things, a possible recession in the United States. When negative news is superimposed on the financial markets, a sudden collapse such as we witnessed during Monday's session could occur. At its peak, the Nasdaq 100 index fell by 5.4 per cent, reaching 15.8 per cent below its previous highs. Japan's Nikkei 225 index lost 13.3 per cent in a single session, wiping out a full year's worth of gains. However, the situation is beginning to stabilise. The Nasdaq 100 has recovered 3.6 per cent and the Nikkei 225 12.6 per cent from its low. What factors could have caused the panic and are the stock markets really back to normal yet?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Will we have a recession in the United States?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Is this the end of the Carry Trade strategy?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Is this the start of a market downturn?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Will we have a recession in the United States?</h2> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US100_07.08.png" alt="US100 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US100, Daily Investors' reactions to news of a possible imminent recession in the US, the Fed's overdue response and the Bank of Japan's move away from its zero interest rate policy were the main factors behind the declines, which significantly strengthened the yen and negatively impacted the profitability of Japanese exporters. The probability of an interest rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting rose to 100 per cent, pushing 10-year US bond yields down to their lowest level in more than a year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wukres_rentowno%C5%9B%C4%87_USA_07.08.png" alt="chart of US bond yields" /> Source: Tradingview The Fed is facing a choice of the lesser of two evils, balancing the risk of a return to inflation with the threat of recession, which has altered previous interest rate expectations. After 'Black Monday', the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by as much as 50 basis points at its September meeting, and by 25 basis points at each subsequent meeting. Only a month ago, such a scenario seemed almost unthinkable to most analysts. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_prawdopodobie%C5%84stwo_st%C3%B3p_07.08.png" alt="interest rate probability table" /> Source: CMEGroup, FedWatch However, if we look at the data that caused concern in the US market, we see that the unemployment rate rose from 4.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent, which is still below the multi-year average. Another negative surprise was the reading of the US manufacturing leading indicator, the so-called ISM, which came in at 46.8 points, compared to the expected 48.8 points (values below 50 indicate an expected slowdown and above 50 an expansion). In contrast, the ISM index for non-industrial sectors indicated expected expansion and stood at 51.4 points. It is also difficult to speak of a recession when economic growth in the second quarter of this year was 2.8 per cent. To conclude that a recession has begun, we must wait for more data from the economy. However, the market always tries to price the future, hence the proverb "the threat is scarier than its execution" is confirmed. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Is this the end of the Carry Trade strategy?</h2> Increasingly, we may hear that the current rise in interest rates in Japan has just led to the end of the very popular Carry Trade strategy among hedge funds and financial institutions. This involves borrowing in a currency with a low interest rate and investing those funds in another currency in an asset that yields a higher rate of return. Borrowing in Japan (interest rates below 0.5 per cent) to buy US bonds (interest rates above 5 per cent) with the yen received was particularly popular. In this way, exposing themselves mainly to currency risk, the funds made money without much contribution. However, when interest rates rose and the Japanese yen strengthened, this strategy resulted in large losses, as the USD/JPY exchange rate fell by 12 per cent in a month. This forced the funds to close their losing positions and cover their losses, triggering a discount in most markets. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_USDJPY_07.08.png" alt="USDJPY chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, USDJPY, Daily Despite the appreciation of the yen, real interest rates in Japan are still negative. After the latest increase, the nominal rate is 0.25 per cent, while inflation remains at 2.8 per cent. In comparison, real interest rates in the United States are clearly positive, with a nominal rate of 5.5 per cent and inflation at 3 per cent. This means that the US dollar has most of the theoretical factors for further appreciation against the yen, and the Carry Trade strategy still remains profitable. The appreciation of the yen has particularly negatively affected the profits of Japanese exporters, which have a significant weighting in the country's indices. The Nikkei 225 index has lost all of this year's gains. It appears that future USD/JPY movements may largely influence the ups or downs of this index in the coming months. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_JP225_07.08.png" alt="JP225 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, JP225, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Is this the start of a market downturn?</h2> At present, it is difficult to talk about the start of a bear market or the continuation of declines in the main indices, given the still good economic situation. When investing, we must remember that unpredictable 'black swans' can happen, so it is important to make rational decisions so as not to succumb to FOMO. When a sell-off spills over into all markets, even those unrelated to the news in question, we should try to use these situations to our advantage whenever possible.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 07 Aug 2024 15:05:00 +0200The threat is scarier than its implementation. This saying perfectly encapsulates the current stock market situation, especially in the context of concerns about, among other things, a possible recession in the United States. When negative news is super...Next week to watch (5-9.08.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-5-9-08-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-5-9-08-2024We are still in risk-off mode in the market driven by technology stocks. The main US S&P 500 index remains 3.9 per cent below its peaks and the tech Nasdaq 100 has slid 8.7 per cent. Negative sentiment may be dampened by data from recent reports from the major tech giants. All beat analysts' expectations. Microsoft reported a 10 per cent increase in net profit, Meta Platforms a 73 per cent increase, Apple gained 11 per cent and Amazon 101 per cent over last year. Hence, the current declines in the indices appear to be a profit realisation by the big players in relation to company performance, rather than a deteriorating business situation. The situation is much worse overseas. Japan's Nikkei 225 index has plunged by as much as 15.2% in less than three weeks due to the significant strengthening of the yen. The USD/JPY exchange rate fell by 8 per cent in that time, as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.25 per cent, to the highest level in 16 years. The yen's strengthening is hurting Japanese export companies, which have previously benefited from a relatively weak currency. If the yen continues to strengthen, this could reverse the upward trend in the Japanese market, but the current strengthening of the JPY may be temporary. In the coming week, we will learn about the central bank of Australia's interest rate decision, US unemployment claims data and the German inflation rate.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Interest rate decision in Australia</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Preliminary number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (July)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday, 6.08, 6:30 CET, interest rate decision in Australia</h2> Australia's central bank kept interest rates at 4.35 per cent at its June meeting. Inflation in Australia remains elevated at 3.8 per cent. However, the economy is cooling significantly as GDP growth has slowed to 1.1 per cent year-on-year compared to previous levels around 4 per cent. The labour market situation has also deteriorated over the past year. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.1 per cent from 3.5 per cent a year earlier, putting pressure on possible earlier interest rate cuts. Analysts' forecast is for interest rates to remain at 4.35 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_Australia_02.08.png" alt="chart interest rates Australia" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for AUD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on AUD. Impact: AUD/USD, EUR/AUD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 8.08, 14:30 CET, preliminary number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States</h2> The number of US unemployment claims rose to 249,000 in the week ending 27 July. This is the highest reading in a year. This increase, along with other indicators, suggests a weakening labour market, intensifying expectations for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The current analyst forecast is for a reading of 247,000 claims. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_bezrobocie_USA_02.08.png" alt="graph number of applications for US benefits" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bullishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 9.08, 8:00 CET, German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (July)</h2>   Annual inflation in Germany unexpectedly rose to 2.3 per cent in July 2024, up from 2.2 per cent in June, despite forecasts that price dynamics would remain stable. The increase was mainly in food, with energy costs falling more slowly than in the previous month.  Analysts' current forecast is for inflation to remain at 2.3 per cent. Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 02 Aug 2024 14:15:00 +0200We are still in risk-off mode in the market driven by technology stocks. The main US S&P 500 index remains 3.9 per cent below its peaks and the tech Nasdaq 100 has slid 8.7 per cent. Negative sentiment may be dampened by data from recent reports from th...Bank of Japan raises interest rates to highest level in 16 years!https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/bank-of-japan-raises-interest-rates-to-highest-level-in-16-yearshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/bank-of-japan-raises-interest-rates-to-highest-level-in-16-yearsThe Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates from 0.1 to 0.25 per cent, which, although anticipated by some analysts, caused a stir in the markets. The immediate effect of the decision was a strengthening of the yen and a 1.4 per cent drop in the USD/JPY pair. This is a good time to take a closer look at Japan's current economic situation and to consider how this fundamental change might affect companies there.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">A failed economic experiment time to end</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">The strengthening of the yen and the impact on markets?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">What is the future for Japanese business?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">A failed economic experiment time to end</h2> Japan's economy is said to be a testing ground for the rest of the world. However, even Japan being an island does not exist in economic limbo. The quantitative easing programme, conducted almost continuously since 2001 by buying Japan's debt from the market, has not fuelled economic growth. Today, Japan's GDP is at the same levels as in 1993! <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_japonii_31.07.png" alt="japanese GDP graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics Despite having the highest debt level in the world, at 266 per cent of GDP in 2023, Japan has managed to avoid a financial crisis thanks to a unique economic strategy. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has bought up around 54 per cent of the country's total public debt, a significant proportion of its liabilities. Research by the US Fed highlights that Japan has managed its debt effectively for more than two decades thanks to a specific ownership structure, including pension funds and the government's strategy of investing in global equity markets. Large asset holdings, such as pension funds, allow Japan to maintain high debt levels with minimal debt servicing costs. In the United States, the situation is different - the smaller gap between the return on assets and the cost of borrowing and the different structure of savings and investments make the Japanese strategy inapplicable there. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">The strengthening of the yen and the impact on markets?</h2> Over the past two weeks, the Japanese yen has strengthened by 7.6 per cent against the US dollar. However, it is worth remembering that the JPY had previously lost 45 per cent to the USD over a three-year period. The current rise in the Japanese currency is largely due to increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in response to inflation, which stands at 2.8 per cent and slightly above the Bank's inflation target. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_USDJPY_31.07.png" alt="USDJPY chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, USDJPY, Daily The weakening of the yen has particularly benefited Japanese companies, which rely heavily on exports but have not shown significant growth in recent years. The weaker local currency naturally boosted export profits, which has been one of the main factors behind the 44 per cent rise in Japan's main Nikkei 225 index over the past three years, breaking through its historical peaks. The profits of the companies comprising this index have risen by a total of 32 per cent over this period. Therefore, the current rapid strengthening of the yen has contributed to the recent sell-off in equities from this market, which have fallen by 9.5 per cent from their peaks. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_JP225_31.07.png" alt="JP225 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, JP225, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">What is the future for Japanese business?</h2> If the strengthening of the Japanese currency continues, we could witness a reversal of the upward trend in the Japanese market. Currently, companies there, rather than competing with innovation in international markets, are benefiting most from the devaluation of the yen. However, it appears that the current strengthening of the currency is temporary as, despite the increase in interest rates, they are still well below inflation, which does not materially change the economic fundamentals behind the weakness of the Japanese currency.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 31 Jul 2024 14:52:00 +0200The Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates from 0.1 to 0.25 per cent, which, although anticipated by some analysts, caused a stir in the markets. The immediate effect of the decision was a strengthening of the yen and a 1.4 per cent drop in the U...The impact of the Olympic Games on the French economy and the CAC40 indexhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-impact-of-the-olympic-games-on-the-french-economy-and-the-cac40-indexhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-impact-of-the-olympic-games-on-the-french-economy-and-the-cac40-indexThe opening ceremony of the XXXIII Summer Olympics Paris 2024 kicked off on 26 July. Unfortunately, the scandal at the ceremony, involving a parody of the Christian ‘Last Supper’, has caused controversy instead of general delight. Relatively high ticket prices affect the fact that around 1.5 million tourists will come to France, even though the organisers had hoped for 3 million. How might the Games, which cost an estimated €9.7 billion to organise, affect the economy and business in France?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">How important will the Olympic Games be for France's economy?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Impact of the Olympic Games on the CAC40 index</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">What does the future hold for the CAC40 index?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">How important will the Olympic Games be for France's economy?</h2> It is estimated that the Games will bring $12 billion to the French economy, while generating $5.7 billion in taxes. This would mean that they would raise France's GDP by around 0.8 per cent per year. Despite criticism of underperformance in the aviation sector and overestimated visitor numbers in the tourism industry, the economy as a whole is doing relatively well, recording GDP growth of 1.1 per cent in the second quarter. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_Francji_31.07.png" alt="France's GDP graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Impact of the Olympic Games on the CAC40 index</h2> Despite the intense promotion of France, the local stock market has seen a 1.2 per cent decline over the past month and is 9.6 per cent below its peaks, as a result of the turmoil surrounding the National Assembly elections. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_F40_31.07.png" alt="chart F40" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, F40, Daily To better understand the impact of the Games on business, it is worth looking at the sectors covered by the stock index. It will be seen that the consumer goods sector, which includes luxury brands such as LVMH and Hermes, has a significant impact of 19.3 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_sektory_CAC_31.07.png" alt="CAC40 sector chart" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis Another index company that is already seeing the impact of the Olympic Games on its performance is hotel group Accor SA. Hotel operators in Paris have decided to cut prices and lift minimum stay requirements to attract travellers. Initial room rates, which averaged €342 per night, have now fallen to €258 per night. This is a significant drop compared to previous months, when prices were 70 per cent higher than in July 2023. Low attendance and concerns about high prices and security have resulted in lower than expected demand for accommodation during the Games. In response, hoteliers are offering discounts of up to 70 per cent and lifting restrictions on arrival dates and length of stay. Accor has revised its forecasts, anticipating lower profits than previously expected. Although some luxury hotels are still maintaining high prices, the general trend is towards falling costs and flexibility in offers to attract recent travellers. Investors have reacted very negatively to the news: after earlier difficult months, the company's shares have fallen a further 4 per cent since the Olympics began. They are now already 30.8 per cent below their 2015 peaks. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Accor_31.07.png" alt="Accor chart" /> Source: Tradingview <h2 id="heading-scroll3">What does the future hold for the CAC40 index?</h2> Let us recall the basic rule of investing according to New York University Professor Aswath Damodaran: ‘Keep your eyes on the price’, as even the best company that you overpay for may turn out to be a bad investment. Therefore, let's check how much the CAC40 might be worth based on earnings forecasts. Over the past 10 years, this index has generated an average annual return of 7 per cent. Let's use the average annual return on the S&P 500 index, which has been 8.9 per cent over the past 10 years, as a discount rate. In terms of earnings, let us assume that French companies continue to reinvest an average of 25 per cent of their profits, and with an average return on equity (ROE) of 13 per cent. As a result, the expected rate of earnings growth in the coming years would be 3.3 per cent. We can then conclude that the current value of the index is 31 per cent above its intrinsic value. This means that French companies may have a difficult time generating a better return for investors than their US counterparts. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_wycena_CAC40_ENG_31.07.png" alt="Valuation CAC40" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 31 Jul 2024 09:55:00 +0200The opening ceremony of the XXXIII Summer Olympics Paris 2024 kicked off on 26 July. Unfortunately, the scandal at the ceremony, involving a parody of the Christian ‘Last Supper’, has caused controversy instead of general delight. Relatively high ticket...Next week to watch (29.07 – 2.08.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-29-07-2-08-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-29-07-2-08-2024On 24 July, one of the worst stock market sessions in months took place: the S&P 500 index fell by 2.3 per cent and the Nasdaq 100 by 3.6 per cent. Both indices are now 4.7 per cent and 9 per cent below their respective peaks. Nonetheless, the financial performance of companies is positive: 56 per cent of the largest companies reported higher sales in the second quarter and 78 per cent achieved profits above expectations. Most US companies, especially in the financial sector, are doing well. The current declines may be a reaction to the Microsoft systems blackout and the realisation of profits after a long rise in the indices. In the coming week we will learn the key decisions on interest rates. First up will be the Bank of Japan's stance, around which expectations of another interest rate hike are growing. This has caused the USD/JPY to plunge nearly 6 per cent and fall to the lows of May, forcing market participants to abandon their existing strategies, increasing volatility and making the correction feel like an avalanche. On Wednesday, we will learn the FOMC decision on US interest rates, which will be the main event of the week for investors. The following day, their attention may be captured by the Bank of England's decision.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Japan interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">UK interest rate decision</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 31.07, 5:00 CET, Japan interest rate decision</h2> The Bank of Japan kept the key short-term interest rate at 0-0.1 per cent at its June meeting, which was in line with expectations. The board signalled the possibility of tapering bond purchases at its July meeting, which was voted 8 to 1. The Bank is currently buying about 6 billion yen worth of bonds per month. The latest statement pointed to a moderate recovery in Japan's economy, with resilient private consumption thanks to better business profits and spending, with exports and public investment flat. Annual inflation was 2-2.5 per cent, with a slight increase in inflation expectations. Analysts' forecast is for another interest rate hike, to 0.25 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_Japonia_26.07.png" alt="chart of interest rates in Japan" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the JPY, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the JPY. Impact: EUR/JPY, USD/JPY <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 31.07, 20:30 CET, US interest rate decision</h2> The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 5.25-5.50 per cent in June, in line with forecasts. The FedWatch tool indicates a 93.3 per cent probability that rates will be held at the next meeting in July. The market is pricing the first rate cut in September with 100 per cent certainty, which could significantly impact markets. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_USA_26.07.png" alt="US interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 1.08, 13:00 CET, UK interest rate decision</h2> The Bank of England kept its main interest rate at 5.25 per cent in June, in line with expectations. Institution officials ruled that it was a ‘finely balanced’ decision. Inflation fell to the 2 per cent target thanks to lower energy prices and moderate inflation expectations. Although a decline in GDP has been avoided, it continues to hover around zero.  However, current analysts' forecasts already assume a first cut to 5 per cent at the next meeting. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_UK_26.07.png" alt="UK interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for GBP, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on GBP. Impact: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 26 Jul 2024 13:36:00 +0200On 24 July, one of the worst stock market sessions in months took place: the S&P 500 index fell by 2.3 per cent and the Nasdaq 100 by 3.6 per cent. Both indices are now 4.7 per cent and 9 per cent below their respective peaks. Nonetheless, the financial...Why are the SPX and Nasdaq 100 indexes falling?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-are-the-spx-and-nasdaq-100-indexes-fallinghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-are-the-spx-and-nasdaq-100-indexes-fallingWednesday 24 July saw one of the worst stock market sessions in many quarters. The main index, the S&P 500, fell by 2.3 per cent, while the technology index, the Nasdaq 100, slid by as much as 3.6 per cent. Both indices are now 4.3 per cent and 8 per cent below their respective peaks. However, if we look at the financial results of the largest companies for the second quarter of this year, we can see that 56 per cent of them reported higher sales than expectations and as many as 78 per cent achieved better profit than forecast. Hence, the current decline seems more like a realisation of gains in earnings expectations than a cause for deeper concern. Let us therefore take a look at the situation of the most interesting companies that have shown financial statements so far.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Banking sector</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Google</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Tesla</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Conclusions</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Banking sector</h2> Eight of the largest US banks reported higher net profits and revenues than analysts' expectations. Six of them saw an increase in net profits. Goldman Sachs bank had the largest increase in net profits of 150 per cent, whose shares are nevertheless trading down almost 5 per cent from their peaks. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_GS_25.07.png" alt="Goldman Sachs chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, GS, Daily The ratio of large US banks' equity to loans and other liabilities, the so-called CET1, is at relatively high levels and does not go below 10 per cent. By comparison, the average value of this ratio during the 2008 financial crisis was in the range of 5-5.5 per cent. This means that the security of the US banking sector is relatively high. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Google</h2> One of the most important financial releases this year is the financial results of technology giant Alphabet (Google). The figures show significant growth compared to the same period last year. The company's revenue increased by 14 per cent year-on-year. The operating profit margin increased from an already high 29 per cent last year to 32 per cent. Finally, net profit growth was 28 per cent. Google search ad revenue accounted for as much as 64 per cent of the company's service revenue, while YouTube ad revenue was 11.6 per cent of total revenue. Despite this, Alphabet shares fell from their peaks by almost 10 per cent! <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Alphabet_25.07.png" alt="Alphabet chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Alphabet, Daily The company's focus on the development of artificial intelligence (AI) is worth noting. We learned from the report that Alphabet is advancing its AI strategy by consolidating its AI model-building teams. These teams, which were previously part of Google Research in the Google Services segment, have now been integrated into Google DeepMind. The aim is to accelerate progress in AI. Alphabet is using its long-term infrastructure strategy and internal research teams to maintain a strong position as AI technology evolves. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Tesla</h2> Perhaps the biggest surprise was the results of Tesla, whose shares fell 12.3 per cent during Wednesday's trading session following the announcement of its financial results. Tesla's Q2 2024 profit fell more than 40 per cent compared to 2023, reflecting increasing competition in the EV market (particularly from China) and slowing EV sales growth. Tesla's financial results were not in line with analysts' forecasts, which overestimated the profit generated by the company in Q2 2024. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Tesla_25.07.png" alt="Tesla chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Tesla, Daily However, Elom Musk has criticised the quality of competitors' vehicles, saying they are only a short-term problem for the company. He also announced that details of the autonomous robotaxi will be revealed in October instead of the planned August. Musk still believes that full autonomisation of the vehicles is possible by the end of this year or early next year. In doing so, he admitted that his earlier predictions were too optimistic. <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Conclusions</h2> No major problems are currently evident in most US companies. The financial sector, which was of great concern as recently as last year, is doing remarkably well. As many as 78 per cent of the largest companies published better financial results than forecast. Consequently, the current market declines may be a reaction to last week's blackout of Microsoft's systems and the realisation of some of the gains by investors after a prolonged rise in the indices.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 25 Jul 2024 15:45:00 +0200Wednesday 24 July saw one of the worst stock market sessions in many quarters. The main index, the S&P 500, fell by 2.3 per cent, while the technology index, the Nasdaq 100, slid by as much as 3.6 per cent. Both indices are now 4.3 per cent and 8 per ce...ETH ETFs: the debut of ETFs on Ethereum. Why is the market reacting negatively?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/eth-etfs-the-debut-of-etfs-on-ethereum-why-is-the-market-reacting-negativelyhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/eth-etfs-the-debut-of-etfs-on-ethereum-why-is-the-market-reacting-negativelyYesterday , the listing of Ethereum ETFs in the United States took off. On the first day, after an initial spike in volatility, the price of the cryptocurrency eventually fell by 1.7%. Recent weeks have also been very volatile for ETH, but also for the market as a whole, which has fluctuated by up to 20% in both directions. Let's take a look at why this happened and what we can expect next in the crypto market. <h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Why has no new capital flowed into the market?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Ethereum ETFs are not new!</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Conclusions</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Why has no new capital flowed into the market?</h2> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_ETH_24.07.png" alt="ETH chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, ETHUSD, H1   On the first day of trading, ETH ETFs generated $1.07 billion worth of transactions. However, if we look at the inflow of new capital into the funds, we see that Ethereum ETFs recorded $106.6 million net, which is more than six times lower compared to $655.3 million on the first day of trading for Bitcoin ETFs. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BTC_24.07.png" alt="BTC chart" /> Source: Conotoxia Own analysis It is worth remembering that after the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, despite the influx of new capital, the cryptocurrency saw an almost 18% decline, followed by an almost 100% rally. It is possible that we will see a similar relationship for Ethereum ETFs. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Ethereum ETFs are not new!</h2> Although the first ETFs for ‘physical’ cryptocurrencies launched in Europe as early as 2019, the market only started to react particularly strongly to them after the US SEC approved funds for bitcoin. The approved ETFs, including products from companies such as 21Shares, Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, Fidelity, Invesco, BlackRock and VanEck, will be based on the current price of Ethereum. Management fees range from 0.15 to 0.25%, although some funds offer reduced fees during the initial period. The biggest downside of the currently introduced ETFs is the SEC's decision not to allow the use of the ‘staking’ mechanism - crucial to the Ethereum blockchain. Staking would allow users to earn rewards in the form of new ETH tokens, resulting in an annual return of around 3%. However, ETFs can only hold ether without staking, which does not provide investors with additional returns. This makes these funds inferior to some European and Hong Kong ETFs. Nonetheless, this is still a significant development for this market, as it allows US mutual funds and financial institutions to share in the volatility in the cryptocurrency market. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Conclusions</h2> Ultimately, although ether ETFs may not attract as much flow as bitcoin funds, they represent an important step in the development of the cryptocurrency market. They offer investors access to Ethereum's infrastructure, which could influence their future value and the acceptance of more ETFs.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 24 Jul 2024 13:07:00 +0200Yesterday (23.07), the listing of Ethereum ETFs in the United States took off. On the first day, after an initial spike in volatility, the price of the cryptocurrency eventually fell by 1.7%. Recent weeks have also been very volatile for ETH, but also f...Next week to watch (22-26.07.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-22-26-07-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-22-26-07-2024What a week! For the first half, the markets lived with the attempted assassination of the former US president. Just when it seemed that nothing stronger would happen, on the night of Thursday to Friday we experienced the first ever global Microsoft ‘blackout’. The failure demonstrated the fragility of modern technology systems and our dependence on one company, paralysing banks, stock exchanges, airports and causing chaos. Yesterday, we learned that the current US president is stepping down from running for re-election. His decision did not provoke a strong reaction in most financial markets, but there was noticeable movement in the cryptocurrency market, where the bitcoin exchange rate first fell by 2.5 per cent and then rose by 4 per cent. Investors can now focus on US foreign policy, particularly Donald Trump's protectionist practices. His statements caused the iShares Semiconductor ETF to fall by 11.5 per cent and the Nikkei 225 index by 7 per cent. Joe Biden's decision is positive for emerging markets, and the lack of a strong reaction is due to earlier speculation and anticipation of the nomination of Kamala Harris. After Biden's poor performance in the pre-election debate and the sweep of the Republican candidate, the odds of Trump's return rose from 52 per cent to 69 per cent, but Harris' endorsement lowered them to 60 per cent. This week we will know the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision and GDP and PCE inflation readings from the US.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Canada's interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US gross domestic product (GDP) annualised (Q2).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US consumer spending index (PCE) annualised (June)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 24.07, 15:45 CET, Canada's interest rate decision</h2> The Bank of Canada cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points in June, to 4.75 per cent, and signalled further reductions if inflation falls as expected. Inflation currently stands at 2.7 per cent, and the bank is confident that disinflation is approaching the 2 per cent target. The current analyst forecast is for interest rates to remain at 4.75 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_Kanada_22.07.png" alt="interest rate chart Canada" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for CAD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on CAD. Impact: EUR/CAD, USD/CAD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 25.07, 14:30 CET, US gross domestic product (GDP) annualised (Q2).</h2> The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.4 per cent in Q1. Investment was revised upwards to 4.4 per cent, with increases in structures, equipment and intellectual property products. Residential investment rose above expectations to 16 per cent, exports rose 1.6 per cent and imports were revised downwards to 6.1 per cent. Government spending was revised upwards to 1.8 per cent, while consumer spending slowed to 1.5 per cent, with declines in consumption of goods and services. Analysts' current forecast is for GDP to grow to 2 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_USD_22.07.png" alt="graph of US GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN, US500 <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 26.07, 14:30 CET, US consumer spending index (PCE) annualised (June)</h2> The annual US PCE inflation rate fell from 2.7 to 2.6 per cent in May this year, which was in line with market forecasts. By comparison, the annual change in the US PCE price index has averaged 3.30 per cent since 1960, reaching an all-time high of 11.60 per cent in March 1980 and a record low of 1.47 per cent in July 2009. Analysts' current forecast is for a gentle decline in inflation to 2.5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_USA_22.07.png" alt="PCE inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. <div id="gtx-trans" style="position: absolute; left: 345px; top: 3833.16px;"> <div class="gtx-trans-icon"> </div> </div>forex conotoxia.comMon, 22 Jul 2024 12:55:00 +0200What a week! For the first half, the markets lived with the attempted assassination of the former US president. Just when it seemed that nothing stronger would happen, on the night of Thursday to Friday we experienced the first ever global Microsoft ‘bl...Why are companies delisting from the stock markets?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-are-companies-delisting-from-the-stock-marketshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-are-companies-delisting-from-the-stock-marketsIn today's dynamic and often unpredictable economic environment, more and more companies are choosing to delist their shares. This process, known as delisting, can be dictated by a variety of factors - from strategic management changes to financial reorganisation to a desire to avoid costs and formal requirements. While going public is often seen as a step towards greater transparency and prestige, leaving the stock market can bring companies a number of benefits that outweigh the potential losses. We will look at the main reasons why companies choose to take this step and examples.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Acquisition or merger transactions</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Going private</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Hostile takeover</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Acquisition or merger transactions</h2> Currently a high-profile case on the Polish stock market is the planned withdrawal of Comarch. The Luxembourg private equity fund CVC Capital Partners, through its company Aspa sp. z o.o., is planning to buy 100 per cent of the company's shares. This fund is known for its high-profile acquisition of the Żabka Polska chain. The reason companies are taken out of the public market is mainly due to mergers and acquisitions, as acquiring companies see great potential in their targets, which seems to be the case with CVC. When a company is acquired by another company, it is often pulled off the stock market, thus becoming a private company. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_conarch_19.07.png" alt="Comarch chart" /> Source: Tradingview <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Going private</h2> Another reason may be the buy-back of shares by the current owners, known as going private, which enables them to reduce the administrative costs of being a listed company and to comply with information requirements that can be used by competitors. The owners of the company may choose to buy back all the shares from investors and turn the company into a private entity. An unpalatable reason for investors, but one that is quite often observed on the Polish market, may, however, be the withdrawal of a company when its current capitalisation is significantly undervalued in relation to its assets. An example would be a situation where the value of the assets is $1 and they can be acquired for 40 cents. A similar, albeit more legally complicated, situation is currently being observed by investors in Kernel Holding, which operates in Ukraine. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Kernel_19.07.png" alt="Kernel Holding chart" /> Source: Tradingview <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Hostile takeover</h2> A common reason for companies to delist from the US stock market until some time ago were so-called hostile takeovers, i.e. situations where companies were acquired by competitors in the same industry or even by their own managements. Because there are few restrictions on the purchase of shares of public companies in regulated markets, both independent investors and competitors can purchase their shares. When a significant proportion of a company's shares are publicly traded, as is the case with many US companies, there is a risk that they may be acquired by competitors, who may thus take control of the company. One of the more famous examples of a hostile takeover is the situation with RJR Nabisco in 1988. The story became the canon of the film ‘Barbarians at the Gate’. RJR Nabisco. The conglomerate formed by the merger of tobacco company R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company and food company Nabisco was the target of a management buyout (MBO) announced by chairman Ross Johnson. Johnson's plans attracted the attention of a number of investors, setting off an intense bidding battle. This acquisition, which was the largest leveraged buyout (LBO) in history, also became a symbol of the aggressive takeovers of the 1980s.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 19 Jul 2024 09:09:00 +0200In today's dynamic and often unpredictable economic environment, more and more companies are choosing to delist their shares. This process, known as delisting, can be dictated by a variety of factors - from strategic management changes to financial reor...Dollar, gold, bitcoin, bonds after Trump's coup: what to expect?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/dollar-gold-bitcoin-bonds-after-trump-s-coup-what-to-expecthttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/dollar-gold-bitcoin-bonds-after-trump-s-coup-what-to-expectFollowing the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump, financial markets reacted in a variety of ways. Fortunately, the worst-case scenario, which would most likely have led to a market collapse, was avoided. Let's take a look at how individual assets reacted to the event and what impact it may have on the stock market.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Stock, gold and bond markets calm after coup attempt</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Cryptocurrency market boom</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">What can we expect?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Stock, gold and bond markets calm after coup attempt</h2> The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump has increased investor expectations of his victory in the presidential election. Polls prior to the assassination attempt were already giving Trump a lead over Joe Biden, with bookmakers increasing his odds of winning to 73 per cent. Biden is facing criticism within his own party. There is speculation about the possibility of a replacement candidate, but even that may not be enough to defeat Trump. The Republican candidate's growing chances are being met with moderate reactions from the markets. The main US S&P 500 index opened Monday up 0.4 per cent, earlier in the day the UK's FTSE 100 index opened down 0.5 per cent from Friday's close, France's CAC 40 fell 0.8 per cent and Germany's DAX lost 0.2 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US500_16.07.png" alt="US500 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, H4 The gold price remained relatively stable, gaining 1.2 per cent from Friday's close. It seems that the assassination attempt should not have a key impact on the price movements of bullion considered a ‘safe haven’. This is most likely because an extreme scenario was avoided. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_z%C5%82oto_16.07.png" alt="gold chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XAUUSD, H4 The situation in the US bond market is similar. After an initial symbolic rise of 0.3 per cent, they are now 0.7 per cent below Friday's close. This means that the market is not reacting negatively to the increased chances of Trump winning. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_TLT_16.07.png" alt="TLT chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, TLT, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Cryptocurrency market boom</h2> After Donald Trump's failed coup, the value of bitcoin rose, reaching a two-week high above the US$63,000 level, an increase of almost 10 per cent. Trump, who has recently begun to portray himself as cryptocurrency-friendly, is due to speak at a conference on bitcoin this month. Investors expect his presidency to bring beneficial regulation to the cryptocurrency market. Despite his earlier scepticism, Trump now accepts donations from the crypto industry and seeks to differentiate himself from Democrats who are in favour of tighter regulation. Such a scenario could positively impact bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks. We are currently in a slump in the previously booming capital inflows into this market. This can be measured by stablecoin capitalisation, which has almost frozen over the past two months. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BTCUSD_16.07.png" alt="BTCUSD chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">What can we expect?</h2> The probability of a Trump win has increased significantly, and the consolidation of one trend could positively affect stock indices and cryptocurrencies in the coming weeks. In the case of assets considered to be safe havens, such as gold or bonds, this event should not have a major impact on listings, as their fluctuations are caused by, among other things, an increase in uncertainty and a negative shock, which we are not seeing in this case. Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 16 Jul 2024 15:12:00 +0200Following the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump, financial markets reacted in a variety of ways. Fortunately, the worst-case scenario, which would most likely have led to a market collapse, was avoided. Let's take a look at how individual ass..."InvestTrends", the quarterly investment magazine from Conotoxiahttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/research-articles/investtrends-the-quarterly-investment-magazine-from-conotoxiahttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/research-articles/investtrends-the-quarterly-investment-magazine-from-conotoxiaInvestTrends Q3 2024 is only in Polish version In today's dynamic times, understanding market trends becomes crucial for every investor. "InvestTrends Q3 2024", the latest quarterly report from the experts at Conotoxia Ltd, provides not only in-depth analysis on current market developments, but also strategies that can help you make more effective investment decisions. See what we write about in the latest release.<img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_ENG_16.07.jpg" alt="InvestTrends" /> <h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Investment strategies for Q3 2024.</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">What to expect from Q3?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Download the report in Polish</a></li> </ol>   Insights into key markets and assets   "InvestTrends Q3 2024" includes analysis and provides answers to questions on the following topics: <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Investment strategies for Q3 2024.</h2> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">When to walk away from the table? </li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What bets affect our investment performance?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Can adding randomness, such as a coin flip, improve our investment decisions?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What might be the consequences of changing strategy during a game?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Price gaps. How can we apply them to trading? </li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Why is the phenomenon of 'closing' price gaps important for traders?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">How do differences in the frequency and propensity to close price gaps between the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and DAX 40 affect trading strategies?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What does a high frequency of price gaps in an index mean? How does this affect trend setting?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">How to take advantage of volatility in the markets? Small steps strategy.</li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What are the key advantages of a "small steps" strategy?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Why is avoiding excessive leverage and hedging against losses important?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">How does the volatility of different assets affect the timing of closing positions?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Warren Buffett's investment strategy.</li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Why is Buffett sitting on cash?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What does Buffett invest in?</li> </ul> </ul> <h2 id="heading-scroll2">What to expect from Q3?</h2> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Top 5 fastest growing exchanges of 2024. </li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Which markets are gaining the most from artificial intelligence developments?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What is driving the growth of each market?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What can we expect in the coming weeks?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Are we seeing an investment bubble again on the Nasdaq 100?</li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Are we experiencing an investment bubble?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What are the differences between the current situation on the Nasdaq 100 and the internet bubble?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What are the predictions for the impact of artificial intelligence on the earnings of Nasdaq 100 companies?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">This company is at the forefront of the semiconductor revolution thanks to billions in support from the US!</li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What is the significance of President Joe Biden's administration's support for semiconductor manufacturing in the US?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">How does the production of chips down to 7 nanometres in size contribute to the development of artificial intelligence?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What are the profit growth forecasts for semiconductor sector stocks for the coming years?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Gold or bitcoin - which might be a better investment in the event of an escalation of geopolitical conflict?</li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Why do we consider gold as a 'safe haven' in times of geopolitical uncertainty?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Will gold and bitcoin really protect us from the outbreak of armed conflict?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">When will we break through the maximum levels on bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?</li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What factors are likely to accelerate further price increases in bitcoin and ethereum in the second half of 2024?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Are we currently seeing an inflow or outflow of capital into the cryptocurrency market?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Gold price at peaks. When will the increases end? </li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What geopolitical factors are likely to further influence the rise of the gold price in the coming months?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Is gold really rising due to inflation?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">Do central banks continue to buy gold?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The euro, the dollar and gold </li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What does the gold exchange rate depend on?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What are the main differences in monetary policy approaches between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve in the US?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What are the forecasts for the future development of the EUR/USD, EUR/PLN and USD/PLN exchange rates?</li> </ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">OPEC maintains its oil shortage forecasts</li> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What factors have driven up the oil price in the first half of the year?</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">OPEC's oil market forecasts.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="2">What are the main factors contributing to scepticism about OPEC's oil market forecasts?</li> </ul> </ul> "InvestTrends is an indispensable resource for anyone who wants to better understand and respond more effectively to changing conditions in global financial markets. Don't miss this opportunity and download the report today. The report is in Polish only! <h2 id="heading-scroll3"><a href="https://magazyn-invest.cinkciarz.pl/">Download the report in Polish</a></h2>    forex conotoxia.comTue, 16 Jul 2024 12:23:00 +0200InvestTrends Q3 2024 is only in Polish version In today's dynamic times, understanding market trends becomes crucial for every investor. "InvestTrends Q3 2024", the latest quarterly report from the experts at Conotoxia Ltd, provides not only in-depth...Next week to watch (15 – 19.07.)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-15-19-07https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-15-19-07Yesterday, the US inflation data pleased investors, coming out lower than expected at 3.0 per cent and falling for the third consecutive month. This boosted the US stock indices to new record highs as the possibility of the first interest rate cut in September strengthened. Meanwhile, Germany’s CPI was reported as expected at 2.2 per cent which was a 0.2 per cent drop compared to the previous month. Next week, we may follow the UK and the Euro Area’s inflation data, which may have an impact on the upcoming interest rate decision on Thursday. <h3>Table of Contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY (2Q)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (June)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (June)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Euro Area Interest Rate Decision</a></li> </ol> <h3>Monday 15.07. 04:00 CET, China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) YoY (2Q)</h3> The Chinese economy showed robust growth in the first quarter of 2024, expanding by 5.3 per cent year-on-year, beating forecasts of 5.0 per cent. This growth outpaced the 5.2  per cent expansion in the previous quarter and marked the most substantial annual growth since Q2 of 2023. The upswing was supported by ongoing stimulus initiatives from Beijing and boosted by spending associated with the Lunar New Year festivities. Fixed investment during this period also surged by 4.5 per cent, the highest rate in nearly a year, exceeding the expected 4.3 per cent. The Chinese economy may have laid a solid groundwork to meet the targeted GDP growth of approximately 5 per cent for the year. Analyst expectations for the Q2 2024 GDP growth in China is 5 per cent.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_1_12.07.png" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bullish effect on the CNY, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the CNY. Impact: USD/CNY, EUR/CNY   <h3>Wednesday 17.07. 08:00 CET, UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (June)</h3> In May 2024, the UK witnessed a slowdown in the annual inflation rate to 2 per cent, the lowest since July 2021, down from 2.3 per cent in April, aligning with predictions. It brought inflation back in line with the Bank of England's 2 per cent target, driven by a deceleration in the prices of food products such as bread, cereals, vegetables, and sweet ones like sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate, and confectionery. Additionally, prices declined for dining out and accommodation (5.8 per cent from 6 per cent) as well as for recreational activities and cultural outings (3.9 per cent vs 4.4  per cent).  Service inflation also eased slightly to 5.7 per cent from 5.9  per cent, exceeding the expected 5.5 per cent. Transport costs increased (0.5 per cent from 0.1 per cent), mainly due to higher prices for motor fuels and transportation services, offset by reduced prices for second-hand cars. Core inflation for the same period decreased to 3.5 per cent, the lowest since October 2021, compared to 3.9 per cent in April. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.3 per cent from the previous month. Analysts expect the inflation rate in the UK to remain unchanged at 2 per cent from the previous month's reading.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_2_12%20(1).png" />   Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bearish effect on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bullish for the GBP. Impact: USD/GBP, EUR/GBP   <h3>Wednesday 17.07. 11:00 CET, Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (June)</h3> Initial estimates show that the annual inflation rate in the Euro Area dipped to 2.5 per cent in June 2024, following a brief uptick to 2.6 per cent in May, in line with market expectations. Prices increased at a slower rate for food, alcohol, and tobacco (2.5 per cent compared to 2.6  per cent) as well as for energy (0.2  per cent compared to 0.3 per cent). In comparison, inflation remained stable for non-energy industrial goods (at 0.7 per cent) and services (at 4.1 per cent). On a month-to-month basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2 per cent, mirroring the increase observed in May. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, surprisingly held steady at 2.9 per cent annually, defying expectations of a decrease to 2.8 per cent. In the largest economies of the Euro Area, inflation decreased in Germany (2.5 per cent from 2.8 per cent), France (2.5 per cent from 2.6  per cent), Spain (3.5 per cent from 3.8 per cent), and Ireland (1.5 per cent from 2 per cent), but rose in Italy (0.9 per cent from 0.8 per cent) and the Netherlands (3.4 per cent from 2.7 per cent). Analysts' expectations align with the initial estimates of the 2.5 per cent inflation rate in the Euro Area in June.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_3_12.07.png" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bearish effect on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bullish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/PLN   <h3>Thursday 18.07. 14:15 CET, Euro Area Interest Rate Decision</h3> The European Central Bank lowered the Euro Area key interest rate by 25 basis points from 4.50 per cent to 4.25 per cent in June, interrupting the 9-month streak of unchanged rates. However, the ECB officials stressed that it would maintain a meeting-by-meeting and data-driven approach for future rate-cuts decisions. ECB officials also expressed concern about whether the euro area economy would recover as expected, as it may depend largely on a boost to private consumption. Meanwhile, according to the minutes of the June meeting, the available data did not increase policymakers' confidence that Euro Area inflation is on track to reach the 2 per cent target by 2025.  Analysts expect the Euro Area's key interest rate to remain unchanged in July.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_4_12.07.png" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A decision on a higher-than-expected interest rate may have a bullish effect on the EUR, while a decision on a lower-than-expected interest rate could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/PLN   Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79.03  per cent of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 12 Jul 2024 12:46:00 +0200Yesterday, the US inflation data pleased investors, coming out lower than expected at 3.0 per cent (versus 3.1 per cent) and falling for the third consecutive month. This boosted the US stock indices to new record highs as the possibility of the first i...Next week to watch (8-12.07.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-8-12-07-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-8-12-07-2024A week filled with inflation data lies ahead. We will learn CPI readings from the UK, Germany and the US. These are likely to affect the quotations of the major currencies. In the currency market, the dollar started July with gains, but quickly lost value due to soft comments from the Fed chairman and weak macroeconomic data from the US. As a result, the USD exchange rate fell by the strongest amount in several weeks. USD/PLN fell below 4.0. In Poland, the Monetary Policy Council left the reference rate unchanged for the ninth consecutive time, keeping it at 5.75 per cent. The National Bank of Poland expects inflation to exceed 5 per cent year-on-year in 2025, pushing back the prospect of interest rate cuts. The EUR/PLN exchange rate is in the vicinity of 4.30 and EUR/USD has risen above 1.08. Cinkciarz.pl's forecasts for EUR/PLN assume a gradual return to the vicinity of 4.25.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Thursday, 11.07, 8:00 CET, UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</h2> The annual rate of inflation in the UK as forecast fell in May to 2 per cent, the lowest level since July 2021. The slowdown was mainly due to a fall in food prices: bread, cereals, vegetables or sweets, and prices in restaurants, hotels and the leisure sector. The current analysts' forecast is for inflation to remain at 2 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_UK_05.07.png" alt="UK inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP. Impact: EUR/GBP, GBP/PLN, GBP/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 11.07, 8:00 CET, German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</h2> Preliminary readings show that the annual inflation rate in Germany fell to 2.2 per cent in June 2024 from 2.4 per cent in May. The drop in inflation was mainly due to lower energy costs, despite a faster rise in food prices.  The current analyst forecast is for inflation to remain at 2.2 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_DE_05.07.png" alt="Inflation chart Germany" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 11.07, 8:00 CET, US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</h2> The annual US inflation rate fell to 3.3 per cent in May, the lowest level in three months, compared to 3.4 per cent in April and forecasts of 3.4 per cent. Food, transport and clothing prices fell, while energy costs, including gasoline and heating oil, rose. The current analyst forecast is for inflation to fall to 3.1 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_US_05.07.png" alt="US inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN, USD/JPY   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 05 Jul 2024 12:56:00 +0200A week filled with inflation data lies ahead. We will learn CPI readings from the UK, Germany and the US. These are likely to affect the quotations of the major currencies. In the currency market, the dollar started July with gains, but quickly lost ...What might be a better investment: gold or miners?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-might-be-a-better-investment-gold-or-minershttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-might-be-a-better-investment-gold-or-minersWe are currently seeing a gap of more than 30 per cent in the share price of the major gold miners relative to the bullion price alone for the past 10 years. This gap has historically almost always been closed. However, is there a basis for this divergence and was it better to invest in gold miners or in bullion itself?<h3>Table of contetns:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Central banks slow down with gold purchases</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Mining prices are rising along with the price of gold</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Is it worth investing in gold mining companies?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">What might be a better investment: gold or miners?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Central banks slow down with gold purchases</h2> According to the World Gold Council (WGC), the largest buyer of gold in May was the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which purchased around 10 tonnes of gold bullion. Turkey came second (6 tonnes) and India third (4 tonnes). Overall bullion purchases, however, fell to their lowest levels in months. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_1_04.07.png" /> Source: WGC A similar situation is happening with the largest physical gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), where we have seen a divergence between gold holdings and price since April 2022. This means that investors are withdrawing their capital from the fund, even though the strong uptrend continues. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_2_04.07.png" /> Source: MacroMicro <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Mining prices are rising along with the price of gold</h2> Gold prices are near their historic highs, yet the price of the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has noticeably diverged from the bullion price since 2020. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_4_04.07.png" /> Source: Tradingview The all-in sustaining costs of gold mining (AISC) in Q1 of this year for the top 25 companies in the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) averaged US$1,365 per ounce and has regularly increased year-on-year. Through this increase, the average margin on gold ounce sales has been increasing slightly in recent quarters, which explains why gold mining company stocks have not performed, all that well during this time. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_6_04.07.png" /> Source: Metals Focus Gold Mines Cost Service In the past, the rise in gold prices caused miners' share prices to rise faster than gold itself, but in 2023 this relationship has disconnected. Elevated inflation seems to have severely hampered the miners' dynamic profitability growth. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Is it worth investing in gold mining companies?</h2> There is no denying that when investing in mining companies, investors have to consider many factors. High mining costs, inflation and fluctuating gold prices are just some of the challenges. However, it is worth noting that these companies have the potential for significant gains if gold prices continue to rise, especially if they manage to keep costs under control and improve operational efficiency. Another advantage for the miners is the increase in mining in Q1 this year, which was the largest ever, increasing by 4 per cent year-on-year. With margins currently high, this means that the miners' situation could improve significantly in the coming months. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_3_04.07.png" /> Source: WGC <h2 id="heading-scroll4">What might be a better investment: gold or miners?</h2> Investing in gold, both in physical form and through ETFs such as the iShares Gold Trust (CHGLD), can be an attractive option in the face of economic uncertainty and inflation. Considered a safe haven, gold has historically protected investors' capital well against inflation and financial market volatility, rising at an average annual rate of 7.5 per cent since 1972. It has therefore achieved a similar return to the nominally major US S&P 500 index. Investments in industrial companies, which in theory should provide a kind of leverage to the gold price, which depends on the extraction costs (AISC) per ounce, can be more volatile. While the volatility of mining stocks has indeed been higher than the gold price, the total return since 2014, when the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was created, has been worse than gold at 44 per cent (including dividends), compared to a 77 per cent increase in the gold price. In the coming quarters, however, mining companies may surprise positively with results, which may allow the gap to close. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_5_04.07.png" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, GDX, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79,03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 04 Jul 2024 13:48:00 +0200We are currently seeing a gap of more than 30 per cent in the share price of the major gold miners relative to the bullion price alone for the past 10 years. This gap has historically almost always been closed. However, is there a basis for this diverge...After the US debate and ahead of the French elections - how the markets are changinghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/after-the-us-debate-and-ahead-of-the-french-elections-how-the-markets-are-changinghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/after-the-us-debate-and-ahead-of-the-french-elections-how-the-markets-are-changingAt the next intersection, we turn right - these are the words that come to mind when observing the events surrounding the elections in the world's major economies. Yesterday's debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump can be summed up by the fact that as many as 67 per cent of those polled considered Trump to have won. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ocean, the first round of the French parliamentary elections will take place on Sunday, where, for the first time in many years, a far-right party could win. Let's consider what impact right-wing wins might have on markets in the future.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What impact will Biden's loss have on the markets?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Right-wing France, and falling indices and a weakening euro</a></li> </ol> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What impact will Biden's loss have on the markets?</h2> The debate could be decisive for the presidency of Biden, who gave the impression of being lost and confused. According to observers, his answers on the economy and immigration were incomprehensible. The vast majority felt that Trump won the debate. However, we are not yet seeing any major turbulence on the financial markets because of this. The dollar remains strong, as do the US indices, which are hitting new historic highs week after week. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US500_28.06.png" alt="US500 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Daily However, we did not hear any concrete proposals from either candidate about the future of the economy. Instead, we have witnessed numerous accusations and references to the achievements of governments that have already taken place. As a result, it is currently difficult to predict what decisions either candidate will make. Nevertheless, the market seems to be gently pricing in a potential Trump win. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_kto_wygra_wybory_28.06.png" alt="chart who will win the election?" /> Source: Bloomberg <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Right-wing France, and falling indices and a weakening euro</h2> Investors have a completely different perception of a potential win for Marine Le Pen's National Rally, in France, which consistently enjoys the highest support of 35 per cent in recent polls. The coalition of left-wing groups can count on less than 30 per cent of the vote, while one in five respondents is a supporter of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp. The scale of the potential victory of the far right will probably only be possible to estimate after the second part of the vote, i.e. after 7 July, which means that political risks will also persist at the start of the new quarter. The poll results have left the EUR/USD unable to break away from the 1.07 area. Uncertainty can also be seen on the Paris stock market. The main CAC40 index is down for the third consecutive session today. In the scenario of a decisive victory for National Rally, the pressure on the euro will intensify and EUR/USD could be heading towards the key barrier of 1.06. Traditionally, during episodes of political crises on the Old Continent, investors should flee to safe, defensive currencies, namely the franc and the dollar. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_F40_28.06.png" alt="CAC40 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, F40, Daily In such situations, it is also worth looking for opportunities because, according to the popular stock market adage 'buy the rumours, sell the facts', there may be some deadlock after the election, forcing both parties to look for coalition partners to form a government. Historically, such a situation has had a positive impact on equity markets as it significantly reduced regulatory risk. As a result, the CAC40 index may return to its upward trend after the election, especially as no significant business risks are currently visible.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 28 Jun 2024 15:21:00 +0200At the next intersection, we turn right - these are the words that come to mind when observing the events surrounding the elections in the world's major economies. Yesterday's debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump can be summed up by the fact that a...Next week to watch (1-5.07.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-1-5-07-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-1-5-07-2024GDP growth rates in both the US and the UK came in slightly above expectations, at 1.4 per cent and 0.3 per cent per annum respectively. Because of this, both the US dollar and the pound sterling strengthened. EUR/USD fell below the 1.07 level, USD/PLN rose to 4.03 and GBP/PLN rose to 5.09. The coming week will see preliminary inflation readings from Germany and the Eurozone. Wednesday will see the FOMC meeting report, which will show how the Fed is looking at the future of interest rates. We will close the week with data from the US labour market, whose situation has recently started to deteriorate, which could be a definite factor for an interest rate cut. Current forecasts are for a 70 per cent probability of a first cut in September this year.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">FOMC meeting minutes</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">US unemployment rate (June)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Monday, 1.07, 14:00 CET, German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</h2> Consumer price inflation in Germany was confirmed at 2.4 per cent in May 2024, compared to a three-year low of 2.2 per cent in each of the previous two months. Inflation rose for the first time in five months. It was driven by higher service and food costs. Meanwhile, commodity prices rose at a slower pace and energy prices continued to fall, despite the end of the temporary VAT cut on gas and district heating in April 2024.  Analysts' current forecast is for a token decline in inflation to 2.3 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_Niemcy_28.06.png" alt="graph inflation Germany" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Tuesday, 2.07, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (June)</h2> The annual inflation rate in the euro area rose to 2.6 per cent in May from 2.4 per cent in each of the previous two months, according to preliminary data. Energy prices rebounded and grew faster for services, but slowed for food, alcohol and tobacco and manufactured goods. The services sector was the largest contributor to inflation growth.  Among the major economies, inflation accelerated in Germany (2.8 per cent), France (2.6 per cent) and Spain (3.8 per cent), but declined slightly in Italy (0.8 per cent). Despite this, the ECB decided to cut interest rates at its last meeting, causing the EUR/USD to fall to 1.07. The current analyst forecast is for inflation to fall to 2.4 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_EU_28.06.png" alt="EU inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, EUR/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Wednesday 3.07, 20:00 CET, FOMC meeting minutes</h2> The most important conclusions we could draw from the so-called minutes include: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Inflation is proving more persistent than previously expected.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Monetary policy expectations have shifted, pointing to fewer than two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the end of the year.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The dollar strengthened as other central banks were expected to start easing monetary policy sooner than the Fed, which eventually happened.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Predictions pointed to a slowdown in the pace of Fed balance sheet reduction.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Short-term inflation expectations rose, but long-term expectations remained stable and low.</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_PCE_28.06.png" alt="graph US inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com More hawkish signals from the FOMC meeting minutes could influence USD growth, while more dovish signals could herald USD declines. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 5.07, 14:30 CET, US unemployment rate (June)</h2> The US unemployment rate rose to 4 per cent in May 2024, the highest level since January 2022, when it stood at 3.9 per cent. This result surprised market expectations, which had predicted that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged. This increases the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.  The current analyst forecast is for the unemployment rate to remain at 4 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopa_bezrobocia_USA_28.06.png" alt="graph US unemployment" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com Higher-than-expected unemployment could be bearish for the USD, while lower-than-expected unemployment could act bullishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN, US500   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 28 Jun 2024 11:59:00 +0200GDP growth rates in both the US and the UK came in slightly above expectations, at 1.4 per cent and 0.3 per cent per annum respectively. Because of this, both the US dollar and the pound sterling strengthened. EUR/USD fell below the 1.07 level, USD/PLN ...EU is not ready for another gas crisis, warns European Court of Auditorshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/eu-is-not-ready-for-another-gas-crisis-warns-european-court-of-auditorshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/eu-is-not-ready-for-another-gas-crisis-warns-european-court-of-auditorsAccording to the European Court of Auditors , the EU's gas supply system is still not completely watertight and needs further action to prepare for the next gas crisis. Despite the EU's introduction of a number of emergency measures, it is not clear what benefits these have brought. The price of natural gas on the markets has been hovering around USD 3/mmBtu since 2023. Is it there for the long term? Let's take a look at the key data from this market and try to answer the question of how gas prices might evolve.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Still a critical situation in Europe?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Supply and demand market situation</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Price forecasts</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Still a critical situation in Europe?</h2> In 2021, 45 per cent of the gas supplied to the EU came from Russia. However, the country's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the EU to diversify its supply. This caused Russia's share to fall to 8.7 per cent in 2023. Before this happened, we witnessed record increases in raw material prices, which forced member states to subsidise energy. Among other things, the AggregateEU platform and the obligation to fill gas storage up to 90 per cent were introduced. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_poziom_zapas%C3%B3w_EU_26.06.png" alt="chart EU stock levels" /> Source: Swiss Federal Office of Energy SFOE Currently, the filling level of gas storage facilities in the European Union is relatively high at 75 per cent. Nevertheless, challenges remain in terms of affordability and security of supply. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Supply and demand market situation</h2> The United States is the world's largest gas consumer, consuming 22 per cent of global gas production. Russia is second with 11 per cent and China third with 10 per cent. The European Union as a whole accounts for 8 per cent of global gas demand. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_konsumpcja_gazu_26.06.png" alt="gas demand graph" /> Source: OurWorldInData In the US, we are seeing a definite oversupply in relation to demand, which could affect energy price falls. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_popyt_poda%C5%BC_US_26.06.png" alt="US supply and demand graph" /> Source: EIA <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Price forecasts</h2> The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts an average gas price of US$3.2/mmBtu in 2025. Such a level suggests prices will remain close to current levels, which is in line with the observed trends of declining both demand (from Russia and Europe) and supply (from Russia), with increasing imports from Asia. Despite warnings from the European Court of Auditors, in the short term there is no cause for concern in this market.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 26 Jun 2024 15:16:00 +0200According to the European Court of Auditors (ECA), the EU's gas supply system is still not completely watertight and needs further action to prepare for the next gas crisis. Despite the EU's introduction of a number of emergency measures, it is not clea...Next week to watch (24-28.06.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-24-28-06-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-24-28-06-2024On Thursday morning, the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates from 1.5 per cent to 1.25 per cent. The outcome of yesterday's meeting was uncertain and highly emotional. The cut was predicted by almost half of the participants in a Bloomberg survey and discounted by financial markets by more than 65 per cent. Following the news of the cut, the franc, which has been the strongest of the major currencies in recent weeks, weakened by around 0.5 per cent. As a result, the CHF/PLN exchange rate fell below 4.55. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates on hold at peak levels, despite the success of the 2 percent inflation target and zero economic growth. As a result, the GBP/PLN exchange rate has risen 2.3 per cent since the start of the month to 5.13. In the coming week, we will learn the final GDP figures for the US and the UK, both of which have recently experienced economic slowdowns. We will conclude the week with PCE inflation readings in the US, which has stalled before reaching the Fed's inflation target.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US gross domestic product (GDP), quarterly (Q1).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">UK gross domestic product (GDP), annual (Q1).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US consumer price index (PCE), year-on-year (May)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Thursday, 27.06, 14:30 CET, US gross domestic product (GDP), quarterly (Q1).</h2> Preliminary data show that GDP growth slowed to 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, compared to 3.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023. Consumer spending slowed more sharply than expected and private inventories subtracted more from growth. Non-residential investment, including structures and intellectual property, was revised upwards. Equipment investment grew less than expected, but residential investment exceeded expectations. Government spending and exports and imports also increased.  The current analyst forecast is for GDP growth to remain at 1.3 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_USA_21.06.png" alt="graph of US GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN, US500 <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Friday, 28.06, 8:00 CET, UK gross domestic product (GDP), annual (Q1).</h2> The UK continues to grapple with a freeze in economic growth, with first estimates putting it at just 0.2 per cent year-on-year in Q1 2024, rebounding from a 0.2 per cent decline and beating forecasts. The services sector grew by 0.3 per cent, manufacturing by 0.5 per cent, but the construction industry fell by 0.7 per cent. Despite rising government spending, which increased by 3.7 per cent, household consumption, business investment, exports and imports all declined. The current analyst forecast is for the GDP slowdown to continue at 0.2 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_UK_21.06.png" alt="UK GDP chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP. Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/PLN <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 28.06, 14:30 CET, US consumer price index (PCE), year-on-year (May)</h2> The PCE price index rose by 2.7 per cent year-on-year in April, still remaining above the 2 per cent target. It can be said that we are now in a kind of inflationary stalemate, as all inflation indicators have stopped at January levels. The current analyst forecast is for PCE inflation to remain at 2.7 per cent year-on-year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_PCE_21.06.png" alt="PCE inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com Higher-than-expected inflation could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, USD/PLN   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 21 Jun 2024 11:51:00 +0200On Thursday morning, the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates from 1.5 per cent to 1.25 per cent. The outcome of yesterday's meeting was uncertain and highly emotional. The cut was predicted by almost half of the participants in a Bloomberg survey and...Next week to watch (17-21.06.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-17-21-06-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-17-21-06-2024Despite the temporary shock of lower-than-expected inflation in the US, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged, the highest level since the 2008 crisis. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, repeatedly said that "we need to have more data to get more certainty". This is a kind of déjà vu, as he used the same terms at the previous meeting. The market now estimates an 80 per cent probability of a first rate cut in September this year, and a 98 per cent probability of a second rate cut in December this year. In the coming week, currency investors can expect interest rate decisions in Switzerland and the UK. We will also learn the final May inflation reading from the euro area. The week will conclude with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech to the US Congress, where comments on future interest rates may emerge.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Interest rate decision in Switzerland</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">UK interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Fed monetary policy report</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday, 18.06, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</h2> Preliminary data show that the annual inflation rate in the euro area rose for the first time in five months, reaching 2.6 per cent in May 2024, compared to 2.4 per cent in the previous month. Prices rose for energy and services, but fell for food, alcohol, tobacco and manufactured goods. Among the main euro area economies, inflation accelerated more strongly than expected in Germany (2.8 per cent), France (2.7 per cent), Spain (3.8 per cent) and Italy (0.8 per cent). The current analyst forecast is for inflation to remain at 2.6 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_EU_14.06.png" alt="EU inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 20.06, 9:30 CET, interest rate decision in Switzerland</h2> The Swiss National Bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.5 per cent in March 2024, the first reduction in nine years. The decision was taken after inflation fell to 1.2 per cent in February, holding for the ninth consecutive month within the target range of 0-2 per cent. The central bank took into account reduced inflationary pressures and the appreciation of the Swiss franc. The SNB forecasts average annual inflation of 1.4 per cent in 2024, 1.2 per cent in 2025 and 1.1 per cent in 2026. Economic growth is expected to remain modest, with a forecast of 1 per cent for 2024. As Cinkciarz.pl currency analyst Bartosz Sawicki points out, "The franc is traditionally fed by eurozone concerns. The CHF is also supported by uncertainty over whether the SNB will cut interest rates on 20 June. CHF/PLN is approaching 4.55".  Analysts' current forecast is for interest rates to remain at 1.5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_szwajcaria_14.06.png" alt="Swiss interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the CHF, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the CHF. Impact: CHF/PLN, USD/CHF <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 20.06, 13:00 CET, UK interest rate decision</h2> The Bank of England kept its main interest rate at 5.25 per cent on 9 May, its highest since 2008. At its last meeting, two committee members voted in favour of a 0.25 percentage point cut. The Bank lowered its inflation forecast while increasing its growth forecast. The BoE expects the bank rate to fall to 3.75 per cent by the end of the forecast period. The UK economy is expected to grow by 0.4 per cent in Q1 2024 and by 0.2 per cent in Q2, with lower demand than potential supply growth. CPI inflation is expected to return to the 2 per cent target soon, with the central bank emphasising the need for restrictive monetary policy (high rates and asset sales) to get inflation back to the 2 per cent target. The current analyst forecast is for UK interest rates to remain at 5.25 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_UK_14.06.png" alt="UK interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for GBP, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on GBP. Impact: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 21.06, 17:00 CET, Fed monetary policy report</h2> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will, as usual every six months, testify before Congress on the conduct of monetary policy and the economic situation. Key points from the latest testimony include: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Inflation has declined but remains above 2 per cent.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Unemployment remains low.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">FOMC maintains interest rate at 5.25-5.5 per cent.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The Fed's reduction in securities holdings continues.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">GDP grows by 3.1 per cent in 2023.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Financial stability is generally preserved, although some areas need monitoring.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">International economic conditions have deteriorated, especially in advanced economies.</li> </ul> Impact: EUR/USD   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 14 Jun 2024 14:05:00 +0200Despite the temporary shock of lower-than-expected inflation in the US, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged, the highest level since the 2008 crisis. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, repeatedly said that "we need to have more data to get m...New Texas stock exchange: changing the game in the US financial markethttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/new-texas-stock-exchange-changing-the-game-in-the-us-financial-markethttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/new-texas-stock-exchange-changing-the-game-in-the-us-financial-marketOne of the largest over-the-counter companies, Citadel Securities, and a leading investment bank, BlackRock, have decided to fund the creation of a new stock exchange in Texas. It is intended to compete with the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq by offering significantly less bureaucracy, full digitalisation and predictable listing standards and costs. The creation of a new trading floor in the United States is a huge event. However, let's consider what more precisely we know about this initiative, what changes it could bring and how we can benefit from it by investing.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Why Texas?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Why is this such an important event?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Who will make money from TXSE?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Why Texas?</h2> Texas Association of Business (TAB) president and CEO Glenn Hamer issued a statement in support of the creation of the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE). The decision to create a new exchange stems from corporate dissatisfaction with the regulatory burden on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. Hamer points out that Texas is fast becoming a financial services hub thanks to pro-business policies put in place by the Texas government. Home to 52 Fortune 500 companies, Texas seems an ideal location for a new stock exchange to compete with the NYSE and Nasdaq. Businesses choose Texas for its low taxes and lack of burdensome regulations. The state also leads in exports, foreign investment and job creation, three times the national average. Hamer points out that the pro-business environment in Texas continues to grow, with new specialised business courts, college funding and a growing number of research universities. The TAB supports the initiative to create TXSE and recognises the financial leaders who are helping to solidify Texas' position as a leader in financial services. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Why is this such an important event?</h2> The combined capitalisation of all stocks listed on the NYSE and Nasdaq represents $28 trillion, nearly half the capitalisation of all stock exchanges combined. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_wielko%C5%9B%C4%87_rynk%C3%B3w_11.06.png" alt="graphics the size of financial markets" /> Source: VisualCapitalist A new entrant that is more open to foreign IPOs, offers lower regulatory costs and lower fees could reshuffle much of the market and open up the US to capital that has not previously had the opportunity to debut in US markets. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Who will make money from TXSE?</h2> The floor of the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) has declared that it has raised around $120 million from financial institutions such as BlackRock and Citadel Securities, among others. The fully electronic exchange will seek registration with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). TXSE plans to begin trading in 2025 and open for initial listings in 2026. We do not know the exact ownership structure of the new exchange, only we can guess that these two entities will benefit the most. But how much? Using the Nasdaq floor debut in 1971 as an example, the exchange's shares have gained more than 20,000 per cent since then, giving an average annual return of 10 per cent. The stock price of Nasdaq inc. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Nasdaq_11.06.png" alt="Nasdaq chart" /> Source: Macrotrends BlackRock, which is one of the largest asset managers in the US and the subject of much theory and secrecy, may particularly benefit from this transaction, for example through exclusivity or preferential terms for offering its financial instruments such as ETFs. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BlackRock_11.06.png" alt="BlackRock chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BlackRock, Daily We are now left to await further information on the introduction of the Texas Stock Exchange, the creation of which seems to have been very positive news for most investors.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 11 Jun 2024 14:42:00 +0200One of the largest over-the-counter (OTC) companies, Citadel Securities, and a leading investment bank, BlackRock, have decided to fund the creation of a new stock exchange in Texas. It is intended to compete with the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and ...Next week to watch (10-14.06.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-10-14-06-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-10-14-06-2024The European Central Bank, in line with market expectations, cut interest rates by 25 bps, giving no indication of further intentions. With this, the ECB ended its policy of tightening interest rates. Despite this, the EUR/USD exchange rate remained virtually unchanged around 1.09. The Monetary Policy Council maintained the reference rate at 5.75 per cent. It is expected that due to high inflation and a revival in consumption, further interest rate cuts in Poland will not be possible until next year at the earliest. Conotoxia analysts' baseline scenario assumes that the zloty should not experience a sustained weakening, despite the fact that the EUR/PLN and USD/PLN rates have risen in the past few days. In the coming week, we will learn the Fed's interest rate decision following the publication of Wednesday's inflation data from Germany and the US. President Jerome Powell will then outline his expectations for future action by the US central bank. The week will conclude with an interest rate decision at the Bank of Japan, where investors are wondering whether the central bank will decide to raise rates after a failed currency intervention to defend the value of the yen.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Interest rate decision in Japan</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 12.06, 8:00 CET, German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</h2> Germany's annual inflation rate rose to 2.4 per cent in May 2024, compared to a three-year low of 2.2 per cent. This was the first increase in inflation in five months, with service and food prices accelerating while commodity costs fell. In addition, energy prices continue to fall, despite the end of energy price braking programmes and the introduction of higher carbon levies in early 2024 and the end of the temporary VAT cut on gas in April 2024. The current analyst forecast is for inflation to remain at 2.4 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_Niemcy_07.06.png" alt="graph inflation Germany" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 12.06, 14:30 CET, US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</h2> The US annual inflation rate fell to 3.4 per cent in April 2024 from 3.5 per cent in March. Food prices remained stable and accommodation price increases slowed. New and used car prices continued to fall. Energy costs, on the other hand, increased slightly, mainly through higher petrol prices, although gas and heating oil prices fell. The increase in transport and clothing costs accelerated. The current analyst forecast is for inflation to remain at 3.4 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_USA_07.06.png" alt="graph US inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Wednesday, 12.06, 20:00 CET, US interest rate decision</h2> According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects the first interest rate cut of 25 bps with a probability of 81 per cent, expected in September this year. There is currently a 97.5 per cent probability that rates will remain unchanged in June. A possible earlier cut could be influenced by weaker GDP data or inflation falling faster than expected.  The current analyst forecast is for US interest rates to remain in a range of 5.25-5.5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_USA_07.06.png" alt="US interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 14.06, 5:00 CET, interest rate decision in Japan</h2> By raising interest rates to 0.1 per cent, the Bank of Japan warned of a possible rise in prices and announced its readiness to change its policy. However, according to the bank's April meeting, financial conditions will remain unchanged for the time being. The bank highlighted various factors that could affect prices, such as wage growth, the depreciation of the yen, government policy, labour shortages and rising commodity prices. The BoJ is also watching how companies and consumers react, which could influence further decisions on interest rate hikes. A representative from Japan's finance ministry urged the bank to work with the government to achieve a stable inflation rate of 2 per cent. Analysts currently forecast that interest rates in Japan will remain at 0.1 per cent, still making it the country with the lowest rates in the world. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_Japonia_07.06.png" alt="chart interest rates Japan" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the JPY, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the JPY. Impact: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</h2> <ul> <li aria-level="1">Oracle</li> </ul> Technology giant Oracle will release results for its latest financial quarter on Tuesday. Analysts expect Oracle to announce a 1.8 per cent year-on-year decline in quarterly profit, while revenue is expected to increase 5.2 per cent year-on-year. Over the past 30 days, consensus earnings have remained unchanged, indicating stability in analysts' predictions. Oracle shares are still in a multi-year uptrend despite the slowdown. The average price forecast by analysts is USD 137.2, 11 per cent above current levels. <ul> <li aria-level="1">Adobe</li> </ul> Adobe, responsible for software for graphic designers such as Photoshop and Premiere Pro, will release results for its latest financial quarter on Thursday. In the first quarter of 2024, Adobe reported an 11 per cent increase in revenue and an 18 per cent increase in profits. The company is successfully integrating artificial intelligence into its platforms, which is contributing to long-term customer growth. Despite competition from new players, Adobe continues to dominate the creative software market. Despite a 25 per cent decline in share value over the past six months, the average price forecast by analysts is $608, 32 per cent above current levels.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 07 Jun 2024 14:17:00 +0200The European Central Bank, in line with market expectations, cut interest rates by 25 bps, giving no indication of further intentions. With this, the ECB ended its policy of tightening interest rates. Despite this, the EUR/USD exchange rate remained vir...Top 5 fastest-growing stock markets of 2024 - see what the future holds for them?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/top-5-fastest-growing-stock-markets-of-2024-see-what-the-future-holds-for-themhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/top-5-fastest-growing-stock-markets-of-2024-see-what-the-future-holds-for-themThe theme of artificial intelligence and its dynamic development seems to have dominated investors' actions and decisions since the beginning of this year. Despite Nvidia's spectacular results, it is not the US indices that have been leading the increases since the beginning of the year. So let's take a look at which national stock exchanges are rising fastest and why.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">1st place Japan</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">2nd place India</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">3rd place Italy</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">4th place China</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">5th place Taiwan</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">1st place Japan</h2> By far the fastest-growing domestic stock market is Japan, as can be seen in the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ), which has gained, as much as 26 per cent since the beginning of the year. The main reason for the rise in domestic equities seems to be the strong weakening of the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY exchange rate has risen from the vicinity of 140 to a level of 156 in this period, which is significantly supporting the exports of domestic companies. Another factor could be the highest inflation in three decades reaching 4.3 per cent at its peak and driving corporate profits up. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_EWJ_05.06.png" alt="EWJ chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, EWJ, Daily The Bank of Japan's recent monetary intervention to rescue the weakening yen exchange rate has not been successful, and the weakness of the Japanese currency and continued inflation continue to affect the growth of companies in this economy. Japan is making a significant effort to regain its status as a world leader in the production of semiconductors, which are essential to the development of artificial intelligence, by investing $67 billion in its domestic chip industry. The plan includes the creation of a government-backed company focused on advanced semiconductor technologies, aiming to mass-produce advanced 2-nanometre chips by 2027. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">2nd place India</h2> India is the second fastest growing stock market in the world. The WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) has gained 16 per cent since the beginning of the year, registering a significant increase in volatility over the past few sessions due to the results of the general elections, in which the currently ruling BJP party failed to win an independent majority for the first time since the last three elections. The high growth of this stock market is largely due to the world's fastest GDP growth among major economies at 7.8 per cent. According to the latest International Monetary Fund report, India is the economy of the future, with an average GDP growth of 6.5 per cent. Another factor contributing to the robust growth in the Indian stock market is the development of the country's financial sector. The notional value of derivatives on Indian stock exchanges reached in March 2024. USD 104.65 trillion, more than double the value a year ago. India is now the largest market in the Asia-Pacific region, already overtaking the US and accounting for 47.4 per cent of the total value of the global derivatives market. This is particularly important for Indian equities, which are largely made up of the booming financial sector. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_EPI_05.06.png" alt="EPI chart" /> Source: Tradingview At present, there are no signs that India is set to slow down its rapid growth, especially as the country still has a lot of catching up to do with other major world economies. However, it should be mentioned that there is a lot of concern in the market due to the upcoming changes in the government, which for the first time in many years will be uneven. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">3rd place Italy</h2> The last place on the podium is occupied by the Italian stock market. The iShares MSCI Italy ETF (EWI) has gained 15.7 per cent since the beginning of the year. Despite this, stocks on this market are still severely undervalued, as they have still not reached the levels seen before the 2008 financial crisis. The Italian stock market, which is made up of as much as 37 per cent of financial services, was particularly hard hit by the crisis. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_EWI_05.06.png" alt="EWI chart" /> Source: Tradingview It now appears that most of the problems stemming from the financial crisis have been resolved, and the country's economic recovery is particularly evident, with steadily falling unemployment (6.9 per cent) and low inflation (0.8 per cent). Nevertheless, Italy still faces a number of challenges, such as low levels of economic growth and high levels of public debt, which reached 164 per cent of GDP in 2023. <h2 id="heading-scroll4">4th place China</h2> The Chinese stock market has lost as much as 22 per cent of its capitalisation over the past two years. However, since the beginning of this year, the situation seems to be improving, as the China 50 index has rebounded, gaining 15 per cent. Nevertheless, Chinese stocks are still among the cheapest compared to developed countries, as they have a price-to-earnings ratio of 13. By comparison, the same ratio for the US S&P 500 index is currently 27.5, meaning that Chinese stocks are relatively twice as cheap as their US counterparts. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_China50_05.06.png" alt="China50 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, China50, Daily China's future depends on the real estate situation. The 2020 ‘three red lines’ policy ended a pattern of high debt for developers, leading to their insolvency. A falling number of newlyweds and a reduction in demand for housing led to a 3.1 per cent year-on-year decline in property prices in April. The property sector remains a key engine of growth, generating 20 per cent of fiscal revenue, 70 per cent of household wealth, 24 per cent of GDP and 25 per cent of bank lending. China needs to intervene quickly and decisively, through, for example, interest rate cuts, increased fiscal spending and restructuring of adverse assets, to avoid a crisis similar to the one we have seen in Japan since 1991. <h2 id="heading-scroll5">5th place Taiwan</h2> By far the world's biggest giant in the semiconductor sector and the development of artificial intelligence technology is Taiwan and its company TSMC, which supplies chips to companies such as Nvidia, Apple and AMD. By 2023, Taiwan accounted for as much as 68 per cent of the total semiconductor manufacturing market. The iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) has gained 13 per cent since the beginning of the year, mainly due to TSMC's high stake in the local stock market, which accounts for as much as 22 per cent of the total value of the Taiwanese stock market. The rise in Taiwanese stocks was largely due to a jump in TSMC shares, which have gained 46 per cent since the beginning of the year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_EWT_05.06.png" alt="EWT chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, EWT, Daily The key importance of semiconductors in the development of new technologies means that the potential of this market still appears to be underestimated, especially in the context of a 15 per cent increase in semiconductor orders compared to the previous year.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 05 Jun 2024 16:38:00 +0200The theme of artificial intelligence and its dynamic development seems to have dominated investors' actions and decisions since the beginning of this year. Despite Nvidia's spectacular results, it is not the US indices that have been leading the increas...Next week to watch (3-7.06.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-3-7-06-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-3-7-06-2024China, not wanting to be left behind technologically, has announced a $47.5 billion investment in its semiconductor industry. The venture is to be funded by six major state-owned banks. The new investment in the Chip Industry aims to reach international standards by 2030 and will focus on the design and manufacture of chips and the necessary equipment and materials to do so. The initiative was created largely in response to US high-tech export restrictions, with China taking steps to compete with the West. On Sunday, we will learn the OPEC+ cartel's decision on oil production levels. Currency investors can look forward to Wednesday's Bank of Canada decision and Thursday's ECB decision on a possible interest rate cut. The week will conclude with US labour market data.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">OPEC+ meeting on oil production adjustment</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Interest rate decision in Canada</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Eurozone interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">US unemployment rate (May)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Sunday, 2.06, OPEC+ meeting on oil production adjustment</h2> OPEC+ cartel countries, which account for more than 40 per cent of global oil production, will decide on crude output levels, as they do every month. OPEC+ will meet on Sunday to discuss policy amid signs of a weakening impact on crude prices. Despite plans for temporary production cuts that now appear permanent, members of the group, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, are likely to extend the cuts. This frustrates countries such as Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, which appear keen to increase output. Due to increased production in non-OPEC+ countries such as the US and Brazil and unsatisfactory demand, Saudi Arabia has cut production to around 9 million barrels per day. Analysts forecast that OPEC+ will extend the voluntary cuts by 2.2 million barrels per day. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_wydobycie_ropy_31.05.png" alt="OPEC oil production graph" /> Source: MacroMicro Larger-than-expected production cuts may act bullishly on oil prices, while higher-than-expected production may act bearishly on oil prices. Impact: XTIUSD, XBRUSD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 5.06, 15:45 CET, interest rate decision in Canada</h2> The Bank of Canada, as expected, kept the main interest rate at 5 per cent in April and did not announce reductions due to inflation risks. Although price pressures have eased, macroeconomic uncertainty and higher commodity prices are hampering the decline in inflation. The bank forecasts inflation of around 3 per cent in the first half of this year and a target of 2 per cent in 2025. The current analyst forecast is for Canada to maintain interest rates at 5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_kanada_31.05.png" alt="interest rate chart Canada" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for CAD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on CAD. Impact: USD/CAD. EUR/CAD <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 6.06, 14:15 CET, Eurozone interest rate decision</h2> The European Central Bank kept interest rates at record high levels at its April meeting: 4.5 per cent for the main refinancing rate and 4 per cent for the deposit rate. The Bank will consider easing policy if inflation moves steadily towards its 2 per cent target. Officials noted that inflation continues to fall, with most measures of core inflation and wage growth easing. However, they warned that domestic price pressures remain strong, leading to high service price dynamics. Governor Christine Lagarde stressed that future decisions would be data-dependent. Analysts are currently forecasting a change in monetary policy through a first rate cut of 25 basis points, to 4.25 per cent, with a target of 3 per cent by the end of the year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_EU_31.05.png" alt="EU interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 7.06, 14:30 CET, US unemployment rate (May)</h2> The US labour market still appears favourable, even though the US unemployment rate rose to 3.9 per cent in April 2024 from 3.8 per cent in the previous month, surprising market expectations of the status quo. The current analyst forecast is for the unemployment rate to remain at 3.9 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_bezrobocie_US_31.05.png" alt="graph US unemployment rate" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bearish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, US500 Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 31 May 2024 12:59:00 +0200China, not wanting to be left behind technologically, has announced a $47.5 billion investment (compared to $53 billion in the US CHIPS programme) in its semiconductor industry. The venture is to be funded by six major state-owned banks. The new investm...What can we learn about investing from Oxford's eminent Polish financial mathematician?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-can-we-learn-about-investing-from-oxford-s-eminent-polish-financial-mathematicianhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-can-we-learn-about-investing-from-oxford-s-eminent-polish-financial-mathematicianJan Obłój, like many leading financial mathematicians, focuses his research on, among other things, modelling derivatives such as options and futures, using advanced probability theories. His work has become the foundation of financial strategies used by the world's largest institutions, combining the theoretical and practical aspects of risk and investment management. Let's take a look at Polak's most interesting findings.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Who is Jan Obłój?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">When to walk away from a casino table?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Maximising profits while minimising losses: Investing with drawdown constraints</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">How much is information worth in the market?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Summary</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Who is Jan Obłój?</h2> Jan Obłój is an eminent financial mathematician, specialising in probability theory, derivatives pricing and financial modelling. He is a professor at the University of Oxford, where he conducts research and teaches. Obłój has gained recognition for his contributions to the development of Skorokhod embedding theory, option pricing and hedging strategies. His work is widely cited and used in financial practice around the world. He has collaborated with many well-known mathematicians and financiers, and his research is applicable to both the theory and practice of financial markets. He is an active member of the academic community, publishing in prestigious journals and attending conferences. He was awarded a professorship at Oxford University and the Hugo Steinhaus Main Prize of the Polish Mathematical Society. His work has been cited in over 1000 peer-reviewed titles. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">When to walk away from a casino table?</h2> Jan Obłój has devoted several of his works to the subject of gambling, focusing on the question: ‘When to stop gambling?’. His research is directly applicable to the investment world, particularly in the context of active trading. In the article ‘Path-Dependent and Randomized Strategies in Barberis’ Casino Gambling Model’ examined the impact of the exit strategy dependent on the history of the plant (so-called path-dependent). For example, if a player has lost several bets in a row, he may choose to exit the game to avoid further losses, even though he has not yet lost much at any given time. Alternatively, it may add an element of randomness to the decision to continue playing. For example, a player might decide to flip a coin after each losing round to decide whether to continue playing. If an eagle falls out, he continues the game, and if a headsign, he ends the game. The study found that betting history-dependent strategies and the addition of randomness to decisions can improve player performance compared to path-independent strategies, where end-of-game decisions are made solely on the basis of current profit or loss. Adding random decisions, such as a coin flip, can help players perform better, avoiding large losses and maximising profits. Another study on exit strategies was the article ‘Optimal Exit Time from Casino Gambling: Strategies of Precommitted and Naïve Gamblers’, which analysed two types of gamblers: committed gamblers, who stick to a predetermined strategy, and naïve gamblers, who may change their strategy during the course of the game. It found that declared gamblers tend to avoid large losses by using loss-exit strategies, while naive gamblers can continue playing despite increasing losses. Strategies that depend on betting history and randomisation can lead to better results, helping players to manage risk much better. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Maximising profits while minimising losses: Investing with drawdown constraints</h2> In the article ‘The Numéraire Property and Long-Term Growth Optimality for Drawdown-Constrained Investments’, the authors, including Jan Obłój, discuss how investors can maximise their returns over the long term while minimising the risk of large losses. The strategy is to set a maximum allowable drawdown from a portfolio's maximum value (known as a drawdown). For example, if one sets a drawdown of 10 per cent, this means that the portfolio value should not fall below 90 per cent of its maximum value. Investors should then choose safe assets, such as government bonds, which have low risk and are stable, and risky assets, such as equities or cryptocurrencies, which have potentially higher returns but also higher risk. However, the strategy requires regular monitoring and periodic adjustment of the portfolio composition to ensure that it meets the drawdown limits set. For example, if we set a maximum drawdown of 10 per cent, the initial portfolio composition could be 60 per cent technology stocks and 40 per cent government bonds. We regularly check the value of the portfolio. If its value falls by 8 per cent, we increase the share of bonds to 50 per cent to reduce the risk of further losses. Introducing drawdown constraints helps investors to avoid significant declines in the value of the portfolio, while maintaining its growth potential. The article highlights that optimal investment strategies can be achieved through dynamic portfolio adjustment, which is crucial for long-term financial success. <h2 id="heading-scroll4">How much is information worth in the market?</h2> In the article ‘Robust Framework for Quantifying the Value of Information in Pricing and Hedging’, Jan Obłój examines how differences in access to information affect the pricing and hedging of financial instruments. He compares two individuals: one who only observes share prices in the market, and another who has additional information that can help to better predict future prices. The authors present a model to value how much access to additional information is worth. To do this, they use the concept of so-called superhedging, or hedging strategies that protect against worst-case scenarios. An agent with additional information can limit its strategies to certain price paths, which gives it an advantage. The authors show that such an advantage can be expressed in the form of simpler mathematical models. The article highlights how the value of such information can be mathematically calculated and how it affects investment strategies. <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Summary</h2> In conclusion, Jan Obloj's work provides valuable guidance on risk and investment management, both in a theoretical and practical context. Adding the effect of randomness to our investment strategies, or basing an exit strategy on recent trades, seems more effective than assuming a predetermined outcome or a borderline loss. The second aspect is to stick to the strategy one has established while playing. This also seems more effective than trying to modify it over time.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 28 May 2024 15:07:00 +0200Jan Obłój, like many leading financial mathematicians, focuses his research on, among other things, modelling derivatives such as options and futures, using advanced probability theories. His work has become the foundation of financial strategies used b...Next week to watch (27-31.05.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-27-31-05-2024-3https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-27-31-05-2024-3Nvidia again positively surprised the markets with record quarterly revenue, 262 per cent higher than a year ago. Data centre revenue grew 427 per cent year-on-year and net profit increased 628 per cent year-on-year. The company also announced a 10:1 stock split, with the company pointing to the rapidly growing demand for AI and generative AI as key growth drivers. Key events in the markets over the coming week will be inflation readings in Germany and the Eurozone, and US GDP readings on Thursday.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q1)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 29.05, 14:00 CET, German consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</h2> April consumer price inflation in Germany was confirmed at 2.2 per cent. A twin reading, close to a near three-year low, was also recorded in March. The slowdown in services inflation was offset by a rebound in food prices and a smaller decline in energy costs, resulting from the end of the temporary gas tax cut this month. Analysts' current forecast is for CPI inflation to rebound to 2.5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_Niemcy_24.05.png" alt="graph inflation Germany" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 30.05, 14:30 CET, US gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q1)</h2> We know from first estimates that US real GDP grew by 1.6 per cent in Q1 2024, slowing from 3.4 per cent in the previous quarter. Compared to Q4 last year, the slowdown was mainly due to a reduction in consumer spending, exports and government spending, and a decline in federal spending, partly offset by an acceleration in residential real estate investment. Analysts are now projecting an even greater slowdown in GDP growth - to 1.5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_USA_24.05.png" alt="graph of US GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD, US500 <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 31.05, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (May)</h2> The annual inflation rate in the euro area in April this year was 2.4 per cent, remaining at the same level as in March and reaching its lowest reading in nearly three years. A year earlier, inflation stood at 7 per cent. The slowdown was recorded in the cost of services and industrial goods excluding energy, whose prices continued to fall. In contrast, price increases for food, alcohol and tobacco accelerated. In its spring economic forecast for 2024, the European Commission expects inflation to fall faster than previously expected and reach 2.1 per cent in 2025. The current analyst forecast is for a gentle rise in inflation, to 2.5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_EU_24.05.png" alt="EU inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</h2> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Costco (COST)</li> </ul> Costco Wholesale, the US-based warehouse club retailer, will announce financial results for its fiscal third quarter on 30 May. Analysts are forecasting revenue growth of 7.9 per cent and a net profit increase of 25 per cent. Costco has partnered with Uber Eats, allowing users to order products without a Costco membership. The average forecast share price is $783, which is in line with current levels.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comMon, 27 May 2024 09:25:00 +0200Nvidia again positively surprised the markets with record quarterly revenue, 262 per cent higher than a year ago. Data centre revenue grew 427 per cent year-on-year and net profit increased 628 per cent year-on-year. The company also announced a 10:1 st...ETF ETH ATH?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/etf-eth-athhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/etf-eth-athYesterday , the Securities and Exchange Commission approved the creation of all eight ETFs based on ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency. Trading in these funds, for formal reasons, will only begin in a few months, probably in July or August. Despite the positive decision, the price of the cryptocurrency, after a 30 per cent rise in May, has fallen by 5 per cent since yesterday. Let us then consider what the future holds for the price of ethereum?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What impact can an ETF have on ethereum?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">What can we expect in ethereum ETF listings?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What impact can an ETF have on ethereum?</h2> The current situation in the ethereum market is very reminiscent of the behaviour of the bitcoin price at the time of the approval of ETFs. Since the first mentions of the probable approval of ETFs for bitcoin last September, the price of the cryptocurrency has risen by 160 per cent. This was a watershed moment for the market, which initiated an influx of new capital. The amount of money in the cryptocurrency market, as measured by stablecoin capitalisation, then reversed its negative trend, although it is still 11 per cent below its historical peaks. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_kapitalizacja_stablecoin%C3%B3w_24.05.png" alt="chart stalbecoin capitalisation" /> Source: Defilama However, as is currently happening with ethereum, following the approval of bitcoin ETFs on 11 January, the price of this cryptocurrency experienced a sharp sell-off, falling by 18.4 per cent. This seems to confirm the famous market saying "buy the rumours, sell the facts". <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BTCUSD_24.05.png" alt="BTCUSD chart" />source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, H4 It is important for investors to pay attention to the measurable factors that influence the markets to avoid falling into an emotional roller coaster. In the case of bitcoin ETFs, $45.9 billion has flowed into them since the day they were first listed, and another $13.3 billion since then, a total of 4.3 per cent of bitcoin's capitalisation. A similar scenario is now expected by ethereum investors. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_nap%C5%82yw_do_ETF_24.05.png" alt="Chart of inflows into ETFs" /> Source: Farside <h2 id="heading-scroll2">What can we expect in ethereum ETF listings?</h2> Currently, the ethereum price seems to be replicating bitcoin's behaviour when ETFs are approved. This would mean that the sell-off on the second largest cryptocurrency could continue in the coming weeks. However, long-term, we are likely to see a new All Time High (ATH) on ethereum later this year.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 24 May 2024 11:13:00 +0200Yesterday (23 May), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the creation of all eight ETFs based on ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency. Trading in these funds, for formal reasons, will only begin in a few months, probably in July ...Gold price at peaks. When will the rise end?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/gold-price-at-peaks-when-will-the-rise-endhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/gold-price-at-peaks-when-will-the-rise-endThe price of gold has increased by 18 per cent since the beginning of the year. Despite this, the current rate of increase in the gold price is not significantly above its historical average. What factors are currently driving gold price increases? Should we expect the increases to continue in the near term, or is a sell-off about to begin?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Are the current increases extraordinary?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">What gold prices can we expect?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Are the current increases extraordinary?</h2> Since 1971, following the move away from the gold standard, annual price increases for the metal have averaged 7.5 per cent, which is comparable to the nominal returns of the main US S&P 500 index over the same period. Gold bullion's recent price increases are largely due to three factors: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The increase in geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, including the unexpected death of the Iranian President, </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The dollar's weakness over the past two years,</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_indeks_USD_22.05.png" alt="chart of the dollar index" /> Source: Tradingview <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Purchases by central banks</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_popyt_na_z%C5%82oto_22.05.png" alt="gold demand graph" /> Source: WGC It is worth recalling that there have been seven years as recently as this century when gold has gained more than 20 per cent a year, not least during crisis periods. Therefore, the current increase of 18 per cent does not seem exceptional. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zmiana_cen_z%C5%82ota_22.05.png" alt="chart of the change in gold prices" /> Source: Conotoxia own study <h2 id="heading-scroll2">What gold prices can we expect?</h2> Given the lack of negative factors affecting the gold price and the possible 'black swans' on the horizon, a rise above 20 per cent this year seems likely, which could mean further rises in the metal's price in 2024, even above the US$2,500 per ounce level. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XAUUSD_22.05.png" alt="XAUUSD chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XAUUSD, Daily An escalation of conflict in the Middle East may not necessarily mean a drastic increase in the price of the king of metals. Based on the armed conflicts of the past 50 years, it is difficult to conclude unequivocally that gold can be a 'safe haven' during such events. Of the 16 major conflicts that occurred during this time, in only 44 per cent of the cases did the gold price achieve a positive return three months after their outbreak. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_z%C5%82oto_a_wojna_22.05.png" alt="chart gold price and war" /> Source: Conotoxia own study   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 22 May 2024 14:55:00 +0200The price of gold has increased by 18 per cent since the beginning of the year. Despite this, the current rate of increase in the gold price is not significantly above its historical average. What factors are currently driving gold price increases? Shou...Next week to watch (20-24.05.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-20-24-05-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-20-24-05-2024Keith Gill, known as 'Roaring Kitty', has returned to social media after almost three years, causing GameStop shares to surge. The company's shares rose 119% on Monday and ended the day up 74%, with other meme stocks such as AMC and BlackBerry rising similarly. Gill's return triggered memories of 2021, when retail investors under his influence boosted GameStop's share price by 2,400%. A key event in the markets over the coming week will be the financial results of Nvidia, which so far remains the biggest beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom. On Wednesday we will see the CPI inflation reading from the UK and in the evening the contents of the FOMC meeting minutes, the so-called minutes, which will give us a better picture of the future of Fed policy.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (April)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">FOMC meeting minutes</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 22.05, 8:00 CET, UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (April)</h2> UK inflation eased to 3.2% year-on-year in March 2024, reaching its lowest level since September 2021. The main factor was a fall in the rate of food price inflation. Prices in restaurants, hotels, leisure and culture also grew at a slower rate, while housing costs continued their decline. The current analysts' forecast is for another decline in CPI inflation to 2.7%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_UK_17.05.png" alt="UK inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP. Impact: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 22.05, 20:00 CET, FOMC meeting minutes</h2> From the last FOMC meeting, we learned that US financial conditions had softened somewhat despite the rise in government bond yields. Expectations of rate cuts towards the end of the year have diminished. Participants at the meeting agreed that a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction should occur soon to ensure a smooth transition to a level of reserves deemed sufficient. The labour market remains strong, inflation is gradually declining but is still above the 2% target, and all participants agreed that interest rates will remain at 5.25-5.5% until inflation is confidently heading towards 2%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_bilans_Fed_17.05.png" alt="chart of the Fed balance sheet" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com More hawkish signals from the FOMC meeting minutes could have a bullish impact on the USD, while more dovish signals could be bearish for the USD. Impact: EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 24.05, 8:00 a.m. CET, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q2)</h2> The German economy grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2024, preliminary estimates showed. The slight growth was due to an increase in construction investment and exports. On the other hand, private consumer spending fell. Year-on-year, the economy contracted by 0.2%, entering a technical recession for the first time since 2020. The current analyst forecast is for GDP growth to remain at 0.2%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_German_GDP_17.05.png" alt="GDP graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR/USD, DE40 <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</h2> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">NVIDIA (NVDA)</li> </ul> Nvidia will announce next quarter's financial results after the market closes on Wednesday. Analysts are predicting a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the AI industry frontrunner compared to a year ago, driven by demand for artificial intelligence. Revenue is expected to reach $24.65 billion and net profit $12.87 billion. Revenue from the data centre segment, a key business area for AI solutions, could reach a new record of $21.17 billion. Nvidia may also provide updates on the new Blackwell platform unveiled in March.  Nvidia shares have risen more than 90% since the start of the year. The average price forecast by analysts is US$1027, 8.8% above current levels.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 17 May 2024 13:52:00 +0200Keith Gill, known as 'Roaring Kitty', has returned to social media after almost three years, causing GameStop shares to surge. The company's shares rose 119% on Monday and ended the day up 74%, with other meme stocks such as AMC and BlackBerry rising si...OpenAI presents GPT-4o. This industry stands to gain the most from the development of AIhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/openai-presents-gpt-4o-this-industry-stands-to-gain-the-most-from-the-development-of-aihttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/openai-presents-gpt-4o-this-industry-stands-to-gain-the-most-from-the-development-of-aiMicrosoft-owned OpenAI has unveiled new ChatGPT features and announced a spring update to chat, introducing the GPT-4o model. Let's take a look at what new features have been introduced and what impact they will have on the market.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">New developments in GPT-4o</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">This industry stands to gain the most from the development of AI</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">This industry stands to gain the most from the development of AI</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">New developments in GPT-4o</h2> Innovations include real-time speech processing, the ability to interrupt the chatbot's responses and changing the voice timbre to a less mechanical one. It is also planned to allow the chatbot to be used without logging in, although the implementation date is not yet known. The company stressed that GPT-4 will be available to all users, including those using the free version, and ChatGPT Plus subscribers will receive higher capacity limits. The Gemini programme is designed to make it easier to solve maths tasks from pictures and natural voice conversations. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Is this the end of language learning?</h2> The public was particularly interested in real-time speech processing, making it possible, for example, to translate text seamlessly into another language, as well as to read the speaker's emotions. This caused the shares of language learning platform Duolingo to fall by 26 per cent in just four sessions. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Duolingo_15.05.png" alt="Duolingo chart" /> Source: Tradingview OpenAI has also announced a partnership with Apple. ChatGPT is expected to be part of Apple's AI offering in iOS 18, although its role in everyday iPhone use is still unclear. Apple is also developing its own AI projects, which may take priority over integration with ChatGPT. Details will be announced at WWDC on 10 June. Despite these announcements, we are not seeing significant increases in the tech giant's share price. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Apple_15.05.png" alt="Apple chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Apple, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">This industry stands to gain the most from the development of AI</h2> It seems that GPT-4o will further enhance the operation of areas such as real-time programming, education through new learning features with AI, telemedicine and customer service. The question arises as to which company will be the first to implement the new functionalities. However, at the moment, the biggest beneficiaries in terms of business are not the companies offering AI solutions, but the manufacturers of semiconductors and graphics cards, which are required to handle the massive computing power needed for artificial intelligence. Hence, we see increasing revenues from companies such as Nvidia, whose sales increased by 265 per cent, and Taiwanese giant TSMC with a year-on-year increase of 60 per cent. The iShares Semiconductor ETF, which includes shares of semiconductor companies, has gained 107 per cent over the past 12 months, and seems likely to be the biggest beneficiary of the AI boom. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_SOXX_15.05.png" alt="SOXX chart" /> Source: SOXX, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) The above trade publication does not constitute an investment recommendation or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No. 596/2014 of April 16, 2014. It has been prepared for informational purposes and should not form the basis for investment decisions. Neither the author of the publication nor Conotoxia Ltd. shall be liable for investment decisions made on the basis of the information contained herein. Copying or reproducing this publication without written permission from Conotoxia Ltd. is prohibited. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 15 May 2024 14:49:00 +0200Microsoft-owned OpenAI has unveiled new ChatGPT features and announced a spring update to chat, introducing the GPT-4o model. Let's take a look at what new features have been introduced and what impact they will have on the market.