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Cinkciarz.pl, Cinkciarz, analizy walutowe, komentarze walutowe, marcin lipka, kurs franka, kurs dolara, kurs euroForex conotoxia.comhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/img/logo/podcast_itunes.pnghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/articles/rss/investment-research/commentsThe best gain over 200% here! Meet the leaders of the hemp industryhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-best-gain-over-200-here-meet-the-leaders-of-the-hemp-industryhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-best-gain-over-200-here-meet-the-leaders-of-the-hemp-industryThe cannabis market is experiencing a real renaissance. Legalisation in one of the key economies has contributed significantly to the explosive growth of the sector. In Germany, the possession and cultivation of cannabis at home has been decriminalised since 1 April this year. Adults over the age of 18 can carry up to 25 grams of cannabis and cultivate up to three plants. From 1 July, non-commercial cannabis clubs will be allowed to operate and will gain the ability to supply up to 500 members with up to 50 grams of cannabis per month per person. This is a landmark event for cannabis businesses. So let's take a look at the industry leaders.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Is the drought in the cannabis market coming to an end?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Canopy Growth is growing by more than 200%.</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Tilray Brands, Inc.</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Is it worth investing in cannabis companies?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Is the drought in the cannabis market coming to an end?</h2> A report by Mordor Intelligence indicates that the cannabis market is estimated to be worth US$33.84 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow to US$69.25 billion by 2029, representing an average annual growth rate of 15.40%. The cannabis industry offers products for medical and non-medical use. Both categories appear to have favourable prospects ahead due to increasing tolerance and the official legalisation of cannabis worldwide. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_wzrost_rynku_konopii_23.04.png" alt="changing cannabis market" /> Source: Mordor Intelligence Medical cannabis represents a significant part of the cannabis market. Many countries (Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Thailand, the UK and Uruguay) have legalised the use of cannabis for medical purposes. In June 2022. Thailand withdrew cannabis and hemp from the list of category five drugs, decriminalising these substances, allowing Thais to produce and sell cannabis for medical purposes, with the hope of establishing Thailand as a herbal centre in Southeast Asia. Marijuana for non-medical use is legal in 19 states, 2 US territories and the District of Columbia. 37 states, 4 US territories and the District of Columbia have also approved its medical use. More states are expected to join this trend in the coming years, given the growing demand for cannabis and its medicinal properties. Despite its growth and increasing popularity, the sector's stock has experienced difficulties. Since 2014, after an initial boom, the value of the index of companies in this sector has fallen by 98%. Will Germany's legalisation of cannabis reverse this trend? The answer will be found by looking at the industry leaders. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_indeks_sp%C3%B3%C5%82ki_konopne_23.04.png" alt="cannabis market index chart" /> Source: NewCannabisVentures <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Canopy Growth is growing by more than 200%.</h2> Despite the extremely negative sentiment in recent years following the adoption of the law in Germany, the largest hemp companies have gained significantly. One of the growth leaders is Canopy Growth, which offers a wide range of hemp products, including dried, oils, hemp drinks and various food products. This company is also researching and developing new medical and non-medical products. Hemp is a major part of Canopy Growth's business, so it contributes significantly to the company's overall revenue. The company's shares at their peak gained more than 300% after the German law was passed. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_CanopyGrowth_23.04.png" alt="Canopy Growth chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, CanopyGrowth, Daily It appears that the opening of such a large market is the last chance for a company whose revenues have regularly declined year on year and which has generally failed to record a net profit over the past six years. This has led to an increase in the debt-to-equity ratio, which has risen from 0 to 0.96 over the past six years. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wukres_Canopy_revenue_23.04.png" alt="Canopy Growth revenue graph" /> Source: Macrotrends, Revenue CanopyGrowth <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Tilray Brands, Inc.</h2> Tilray produces a wide range of hemp products, including dried flowers, hemp oils and food products. The company also offers medical products. Tilray (following its merger with Aphria) has become one of the largest players in the global hemp market. Its shares reacted positively to news of legalisation in Germany, rising by 75% before falling to zero. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Tilray_23.04.png" alt="Tilray chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, TilrayInc, Daily Tilray Brands, in contrast to Canopy Growth, reported record revenues in Q2 2024, a 34% increase on the previous year. The company enjoys a leadership position in the global cannabis market, being number one in terms of market share in Canada and leading the medical cannabis segment in Europe. Tilray is focused on increasing its market share, particularly in the medical cannabis segment in Europe, by leveraging its cultivation and distribution operations. Despite Tilray's all-time record sales, the company has not recorded a net profit in recent years. <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Is it worth investing in cannabis companies?</h2> There is no denying that the opening of the German market may represent a new deal for the cannabis industry. Despite the impressive recent increases, it is worth remembering the words of New York University professor Aswath Damodaran: "keep your eyes on the price". The value of any company is today's value of the company's future earnings, and holding on to losses for too long can lead to an increase in debt or the issuance of new shares, which in most cases will negatively impact the outcome of our investment.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 23 Apr 2024 15:46:00 +0200The cannabis market is experiencing a real renaissance. Legalisation in one of the key economies has contributed significantly to the explosive growth of the sector. In Germany, the possession and cultivation of cannabis at home has been decriminalised ...Next week to watch (22-26.04.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-22-26-04-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-22-26-04-2024More and more economists and central bankers are beginning to announce that we are facing a second wave of inflation linked to the rising prices of key commodities on the markets. Since the beginning of the year, the price of oil has risen by 16%, the price of copper has gained 15% and gold has risen by 16%. Most experts agree that we will not reach the high levels we saw a year ago. Nevertheless, this factor pushes expectations for the first interest rate cuts by central banks, which are now predicted to be around September this year. In the coming week, we will look forward to US GDP and PCE inflation data. However, it seems that many investors' attention will focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. At its last meeting, Japan was the last country to end its negative interest rate policy.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) (Q1).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Japan interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (March)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Thursday, 25.04, 14:30 CET, US quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) (Q1).</h2> In Q4 2023, the US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualised rate of 3.4%. This was mainly driven by increased consumer spending, non-residential investment and government spending. Despite this, imports, which are dragging down GDP, have started to rise again, indicating that the US economy is recovering. The current analyst forecast is for GDP growth to slow in Q1 to an annual rate of 2.8% <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_USA_19.04.png" alt="graph of US GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: US500, EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Friday, 26.04, 5:00 CET, Japan interest rate decision</h2> On 19 March 2024, the Bank of Japan ended its eight-year policy of negative interest rates by raising them to 0-0.1%, the first hike since the 2008 crisis, as inflation had been above the central bank's 2% target for more than a year, while the country's largest companies agreed to raise wages by 5.28%, the largest wage increase in more than three decades. However, this did not help the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY exchange rate weakened above the US$150 level. In response to the weakening yen, Japan's main monetary authorities are considering currency interventions to prevent speculative moves. The last such intervention took place in October 2022 and reduced the USD/JPY exchange rate by 16%. Currently, the key level for the USD/JPY currency pair is 152. Analysts' forecast is for interest rates to remain at the current level of 0-0.1%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_USA_19.04.png" alt="chart interest rates Japan" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the JPY, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the JPY. Impact: JP225, USD/JPY <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 26.04, 14:30 CET, US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (March)</h2> The annual change in US PCE inflation remained at 2.45% in February, the lowest level in two years. The annual change in PCE inflation in the United States averaged 3.30% from 1960 to 2024. The current analyst forecast is for an increase in the level of PCE inflation to 2.6%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Inflacja_PCE_USA_19.04.png" alt="graph US PCE inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: US500, EUR/USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</h2> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Tesla (TSLA) </li> </ul> Tesla will report first quarter results on Tuesday. Sales of electric cars in the US have declined, revealing a slowing market and a drop in Tesla's share from 62% in early 2023 to 51% today. Tesla's sales were down more than 13% compared to the first quarter of last year, in contrast to significant sales growth at new competitors. The electric carmaker's shares are now at one-year lows. <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Meta Platforms/Facebook (META) </li> </ul> Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) will announce its first quarter results on Wednesday. The company has integrated its advanced artificial intelligence, Meta AI, into its applications and services, enabling real-time processing and seamless transitions between applications. Meta AI, enhanced by the Llama 3 model, makes it easier for users to give commands through chats and social media. The tech giant's shares are near their historic highs. <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) </li> </ul> Alphabet (Google) will report first quarter results on Thursday. The company achieved a record price for its shares, bringing its market value closer to $2 trillion. The increase comes on the back of investor optimism about the company's potential in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) and stable advertising revenues. Analysts predict that Alphabet will surpass the $2 trillion mark, with a price target set at $185 per share. Alphabet has posted an average annualised investment return of 19% over the past decade, outperforming the S&P 500 but underperforming its peers over $1 trillion. Despite earlier mixed reactions to AI offerings, the company's prospects have improved as Google emerges as an AI leader and considers AI search fees. Alphabet shares are near their historical highs maintaining their upward trend. <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Microsoft (MSFT) </li> </ul> Microsoft is set to unveil its first quarter results on Thursday. They are expected to be driven by advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Analysts at Citi note that AI products such as Azure and Copilot could significantly boost the company's revenues. Microsoft shares are currently in a price correction.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 19 Apr 2024 15:03:00 +0200More and more economists and central bankers are beginning to announce that we are facing a second wave of inflation linked to the rising prices of key commodities on the markets. Since the beginning of the year, the price of oil has risen by 16%, the p...Shahed drones and beyond. How to invest in the military market and should Europe produce drones?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/shahed-drones-and-beyond-how-to-invest-in-the-military-market-and-should-europe-produce-droneshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/shahed-drones-and-beyond-how-to-invest-in-the-military-market-and-should-europe-produce-dronesCombat drones, also known as 'combat drones' or 'unmanned combat aerial vehicles ', could represent a breakthrough on the modern battlefield. The idea of introducing remotely controlled machines dates back to the First World War, but it is the 21st century that has brought the technology to enable their full use. Unmanned aerial vehicles are revolutionising the way military operations are conducted, enabling precision attacks without directly endangering the lives of pilots. Recently, there has been particularly much talk about Iran's Shahed drones. So let's consider how they work, what their market looks like and how you can invest in their development.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What are combat drones?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">What does the drone market look like?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">How can we invest in the development of combat drones?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What are combat drones?</h2> In an age of increasing automation and wider access to advanced technology, combat drones are becoming increasingly important in both military and counter-terrorism operations around the world.  Iranian Shahed drones can be used for reconnaissance missions, but also for explosive attacks. The main features of their operation are: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Reduce personnel risk: Enable combat operations without directly endangering soldiers' lives, which is particularly valuable in difficult and dangerous missions.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Low production costs: Combat drones are much cheaper to produce than aircraft or missiles. For example, producing an Iranian Shahed-136 drone costs around $50,000, while an old-generation F-16 jet costs around $63 billion, or as much as 1,260 times more. Drones can also be an alternative to short- and medium-range missiles, whose prices range from $100,000 to $3 million.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Slow flight speed: Combat drones have a much slower rate of movement compared to rockets and aircraft. The fastest can reach speeds of up to 7400 km/h, but most models do not exceed the speed of sound at 1224 km/h.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Versatility of use: A major advantage is their versatility. They can be used for reconnaissance or surveillance missions as well as precision attacks. They are crucial in counter-terrorism operations, electronic warfare and humanitarian tasks such as disaster monitoring, among others. </li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/Grafika_Drony_Shahed_18.04.png" alt="graphics drones Shahed" /> Source: Front news, Shahed Drone <h2 id="heading-scroll2">What does the drone market look like?</h2> From the latest 'Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAV) Market' report, we know that the market is valued at USD 26.2 billion in 2024. In turn, it is expected to reach USD 38.3 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/Grafika_raport_18.04.png" alt="report graphics" /> Source: MarketsAndMarkets Demand for UCAVs is being driven by their increasing use in advanced military operations, their cost-effectiveness in monitoring contested borders and enhancing security. Significant investment in research and development by the US, Russia, China and other countries is driving the growth of the industry, with a focus on deploying large numbers of UCAVs to increase military effectiveness. Regional analysis in the report indicates that the Asia-Pacific region accounted for a significant market share in 2023, with North America expected to grow the fastest during the indicated forecast period. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">How can we invest in the development of combat drones?</h2> The US is a leader in the development and use of UCAVs, with models such as the MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-1 Predator that have been used extensively in conflicts around the world. US UCAV technology is among the most advanced. Examples of major companies in the industry include:   <ul> <li aria-level="1">BAE Systems: A UK-based defence and aerospace company that develops and manufactures a variety of unmanned systems for both military and civilian purposes. The drone models it produces include: Taranis, Mantis, Herti or PHASA-35. Over the past 12 months, its shares have gained 8%.</li> </ul>   <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BAESystems_18.04.png" alt="BAESystems chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BAESystems, Daily   <ul> <li aria-level="1">Boeing: A US aerospace and defence corporation that designs, manufactures and sells aircraft, satellites, defence systems and advanced technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles. Among the drone models that Boeing produces are: ScanEagle, Phantom Eye and MQ-25 Stingray. Over the past 12 months, Boeing's shares have lost 17% of their value despite the favourable economic environment and are now at their two-year lows.</li> </ul>   <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Boeing_18.04.png" alt="Boeing diagram" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Boeing, Daily   <ul> <li aria-level="1">Lockheed Martin: A US-based defence and technology corporation that is one of the world's largest manufacturers in the aerospace and security industries. The company designs and manufactures advanced aerospace systems, including drones, which are used in both the military and civilian sectors. Drone models manufactured by Lockheed Martin include: RQ-170 Sentinel, MQ-25 Stingray and the Fury series. Over the past 12 months, Lockheed Martin shares have not performed well, losing 7% of their value.</li> </ul>   <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_loockhed_18.04.png" alt="Lockheed chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Lockheed, Daily Combat drones, known as UCAVs, are playing an increasingly important role on the modern battlefield due to their ability to carry out precision attacks without directly endangering the lives of pilots. Iran's Shahed drones, used for both reconnaissance and attack missions, exemplify the growing role of these devices in military operations. They are characterised by their low production costs, slow flight rate and versatility, making them effective in operations. Despite the growing importance of drone technology, with sales projected to grow by 7.9% annually, the IShares US Aerospace & Defence index of defence stocks, including combat drone manufacturers, is down 8% over the past 12 months. It appears that in the event of an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, defence companies could become much more important globally.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 18 Apr 2024 13:51:00 +0200Combat drones, also known as 'combat drones' or 'unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs)', could represent a breakthrough on the modern battlefield. The idea of introducing remotely controlled machines dates back to the First World War, but it is the 21...What is the Iron Dome of Israel and could it work in Europe?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-is-the-iron-dome-of-israel-and-could-it-work-in-europehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-is-the-iron-dome-of-israel-and-could-it-work-in-europeThe Iron Dome is an Israeli system designed to protect against kamikaze missiles and drones. Developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries with US support, the structure has been operational since 2011. Does Europe need a similar installation and what are the implications of having one?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What is the Iron Dome?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How is the Iron Dome different from other anti-missile systems?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Should we implement the Iron Dome in Europe?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What is the Iron Dome?</h2> The Iron Dome is Israel's missile defence system, the development of which began after the 2006 conflict with Hezbollah. During this conflict, known as the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah fired thousands of rockets at northern regions of Israel, causing significant material and human losses. A decisive response to these threats has become a priority for the Israeli government and military. In response to the need for an effective defence against short-range rockets, the Israeli Ministry of Defence commissioned two national defence companies - Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries - to develop a new missile defence system. Work on the formation, which was dubbed the Iron Dome, got into full swing and the system was officially launched into service as early as 2011. The Iron Dome consists of three main components: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Detection radar - detects incoming missiles and tracks their trajectory.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Command and control centre - analyses the radar data and makes the intercept decision.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Missile launcher - fires interceptor missiles to destroy targets in the air.</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_%C5%BCelazna_kurtyna_17.04.png" alt="graphics iron curtain" /> Source: BBC News <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How is the Iron Dome different from other anti-missile systems?</h2> The Iron Dome differs from other missile defence systems in several key features that make it extremely effective in specific conditions: <ol> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Range and target: the Iron Dome is mainly designed to counter short-range (4 to 70km) missiles, including rockets, artillery mortar shells and kamikaze drones. Most other systems, such as the US Patriot or THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence), among others, are designed to intercept ballistic missiles with longer ranges and higher altitudes. Of course, Israel also has the ARROW 2 and 3 long-range defence systems, which use US Patriot missiles.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Intercept decision: The system uses advanced radar and computer algorithms to assess which detected missiles actually pose a threat to populated or strategic areas. A counter-missile is only fired if the missile is deemed to be a threat to the target. This allows more efficient munitions management and minimises costs, as not every detected missile is intercepted.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Mobility: the Iron Dome has both stationary and mobile launchers, allowing the system to move quickly in response to changing threats and adapt to a dynamic battlefield.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Costs: Compared to most missile defence systems, the cost of intercepting a single missile by the Iron Dome system is relatively low. The cost of a single battery is $50m, while the cost of a single intercept is around $100-150,000. This is more than 20 times less than the US Patriot system, which costs around $3m per missile. When defending against indiscriminate missile attacks, this takes on great significance.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Speed of response: The Iron Dome is capable of responding very quickly to incoming threats, which is crucial in the face of rocket attacks by groups such as Hamas, where missiles are often launched in short bursts.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Effectiveness: the system has a very high effectiveness, knocking down around 90% of targets, which is extremely high for missile defence systems.</li> </ol> These unique features make the Iron Dome particularly useful in protecting against sporadic and low-cost missile attacks. Other missile defence systems are typically designed with a different type of threat in mind, often requiring greater long-range capability and the ability to intercept advanced ballistic and nuclear missiles. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Should we implement the Iron Dome in Europe?</h2> The Iron Dome is a relatively short-range defence system that starts operating between 4 and 70 km away. Meanwhile, the area of the European Union is 180 times larger than Israel. Hence, covering even just key areas of Europe with a similar system will cost incomparably more. The introduction of the 'Iron Dome' to Europe was advocated by the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, who, during a recent meeting with the Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, stated: "The construction of the Iron Dome against rockets and drones is needed (...). The recent attack on Israel confirmed how important such installations are. There is no reason for Europe not to have such a system". The market effects of the Dome over Israel are also noteworthy. Thanks to the fact that the vast majority of Iranian missiles were shot down, the Israeli currency even strengthened by 1.6% on Monday against the end of the week, before returning to pre-attack levels. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_USDILS_17.04.png" alt="chart USDIRL" /> Source: Tradingview What's more, this avoided capital outflows from the stock market, which has only slipped 0.8% since Friday's close. Meanwhile, if the losses had reached 10% (which technically means a stock market crash), US$30 million would have been lost from the Israel Stock Exchange. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_TA35_17.04.png" alt="chart TA35" /> Source: Tradingview   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 17 Apr 2024 12:13:00 +0200The Iron Dome is an Israeli system designed to protect against kamikaze missiles and drones. Developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries with US support, the structure has been operational since 2011. Does Europe need a ...Gold or bitcoin - which will be the better investment in the event of an escalation of Israel's conflict with Iran?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/gold-or-bitcoin-which-will-be-the-better-investment-in-the-event-of-an-escalation-of-israel-s-conflict-with-iranhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/gold-or-bitcoin-which-will-be-the-better-investment-in-the-event-of-an-escalation-of-israel-s-conflict-with-iranGold, considered a so-called safe haven in times of uncertainty, or bitcoin, which has become known as the gold of the new times due to its anonymity and limited supply? Following the Iranian attack on Israel, investors are going through a time of serious testing. Let us therefore consider which of these two assets is the better hedge in the event of an escalation of the conflict.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">How did gold (XAU) and bitcoin (BTC) prices behave after the rocket attack on Israel?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">The outbreak of war in Ukraine and the price of XAU and BTC</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Are central banks preparing for war?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Gold is not a good hedge for war?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">What can we expect in the coming months?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">How did gold (XAU) and bitcoin (BTC) prices behave after the rocket attack on Israel?</h2> Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel on Saturday night. Drones and long-range missiles were launched as retaliation for an alleged Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, where senior Iranian commanders were killed. Following Friday's announcement of Iranian retaliation, the price of both assets (red line on the chart) - bitcoin and gold - fell dramatically. Bitcoin lost more than 5% by the end of Friday's session, while gold lost 2%. However, the attack itself occurred on Saturday evening, when the cryptocurrency market remains open. Shortly after the attack (blue line), bitcoin lost a further 7.7%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BTC_XAU_Konflikt_Izrael_16.04.png" alt="BTC XAU chart Israel conflict" /> Source: Tradingview <h2 id="heading-scroll2">The outbreak of war in Ukraine and the price of XAU and BTC</h2> During Russia's attack on Ukraine (24 February 2022), the price of gold rose by more than 8% over the course of a week. At the time, bitcoin fluctuated around its equilibrium after a temporary 16% increase. However, when the three-month period after the outbreak of the conflict is taken into account, both assets went under: gold lost just 2.5%, while bitcoin slipped by more than 20%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BTC_XAU_wojna_Ukraina_16.04.png" alt="BTC chart XAU war Ukraine" /> Source: Tradingview It appears that investors view bitcoin more as a speculative asset than a capital security. Consequently, when war breaks out, many investors go into a 'risk-off' state, leading to capital flight from riskier investments. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Are central banks preparing for war?</h2> Currently, the United States has the largest gold reserves, holding as much as 25.4% of the world's gold reserves, followed by Germany with 10.5% and Italy with 7.6%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_rezerwy_z%C5%82ota_16.04.png" alt="gold reserve graph" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis Why is this important? Because the price of gold, like the price of any other asset, depends on supply and demand. In the case of the king of metals, however, supply is significantly limited, and the main buyers are primarily central banks, which have increased their appetite for gold especially in recent years. Historically, central banks have intensified their purchases of this bullion during periods of preparation for situations such as war or crises, in order to exchange it for weapons and other necessary resources during conflict. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_popyt_na_z%C5%82oto_16.04.png" alt="gold demand graph" /> Source: WGC <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Gold is not a good hedge for war?</h2> Since the release of the gold price in 1971, there have been 16 major armed conflicts. An analysis of bullion price movements in the 90 days following the outbreak of each shows that gold has not always been an ideal capital hedge. In only 44% of cases did it achieve a positive rate of return after three months. Despite this, the average rate of return over this period was 2%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_wp%C5%82yw_wojny_na_z%C5%82oto_16.04.png" alt="graph the impact of war on gold" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis <h2 id="heading-scroll5">What can we expect in the coming months?</h2> For both gold and bitcoin, the price is significantly influenced by investor expectations. Although BTC's price is currently linked to the coming halving, unexpected outbreaks of conflict have tended to negatively impact its price, which may suggest that the cryptocurrency is seen more as a risky asset than a hedge of investors' capital. Meanwhile, the price of gold has been rising mainly due to increased demand from central banks seeking a hedge for uncertain times. Based on recent armed conflicts, it is difficult to conclude unequivocally that both gold and bitcoin can be a 'safe haven' during such events. The current rate of increase in gold prices is not significantly above its historical average of 7.5% per year for the past 50 years. The recent rises in gold prices are largely due to purchases by central banks, which are likely to continue. It is worth recalling that there have been seven years in this century when gold has gained more than 20% per year, not least during crisis periods. In light of the lack of factors negatively affecting the gold price and the possibility of an escalation of the conflict in Israel, a rise even above 20% this year seems likely. This could even mean breaking through the USD 2450 per ounce level.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 16 Apr 2024 13:33:00 +0200Gold, considered a so-called safe haven in times of uncertainty, or bitcoin, which has become known as the gold of the new times due to its anonymity and limited supply? Following the Iranian attack on Israel, investors are going through a time of serio...Next week to watch (15-19.04.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-15-19-04-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-15-19-04-2024Following the higher-than-expected CPI inflation reading from the United States, bond yields rose sharply from 4.35% to 4.6%, thus reaching a five-month high. This means that expectations for the first US interest rate cut have moved from June to September. This raises the question of who will cut interest rates first - the European Central Bank or the US Fed? In the coming week, on Wednesday we will learn the final CPI inflation readings from the UK and the Eurozone. On Thursday, new unemployment claims data from the United States will be published. We also continue with the start of the financial results season for the first quarter of this year.<h3>Spis treści:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (March)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (March)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Initial Jobless Claims in the United States</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 17.04, 8:00 CET, UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (March)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. In February 2024, the UK inflation rate fell from 4 (the level recorded in January and December) to 3.4% on an annualised basis. The strong fall in the rate of price rises in restaurants and hotels was the biggest contributor to the fall in inflation. Another factor having a positive impact on inflation was the 0.7% fall in energy and gas prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, fell to 4.5%, reaching its lowest level since January 2022. Analysts' current forecast is for CPI inflation to continue its decline in March to 3.1%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_UK_CPI_12.04.png" alt="UK CPI chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for GBP. Impact: GBP <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 17.04, 11:00 CET, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (March)</h2> According to preliminary readings, CPI inflation in the euro area fell to 2.4% in March 2024, the lowest level in 28 months, recorded in November. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also fell to 2.9%, the lowest level since February 2022, below the forecast of 3.0%. Energy prices fell by 1.8%, while inflation for food, alcohol, tobacco and non-energy industrial goods eased. Services inflation remained stable at 4.0%.  The current analyst forecast is to confirm the preliminary CPI inflation reading of 2.4%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_EU_CPI_12.04.png" alt="chart CPI EU" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 18.04, 14:30 CET, Initial Jobless Claims in the United States</h2> From the March 2024 employment report, we learned that total nonfarm employment in the US increased by 303,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%, still at multi-year lows. The current analysts' forecast is for unemployment claims to remain currently low at 212 000. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_bezrobocie_12.04.png" alt="graph US unemployment" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected number of applications could be bearish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bullishly on the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</h2> Goldman Sachs (GS) announces financial results for the quarter ending March 2024. forecast EPS: 8.8. positive earnings surprise in 7 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Monday, 15 April.  ASML ADR (ASML) announces financial results for the quarter ending March 2024. forecast EPS: 3.27. positive earnings surprise in 9 of last 10 reports.  Deadline: Wednesday, 17 April.  Netflix (NFLX) announces financial results for the quarter ending March 2024. forecast EPS: 4.49. positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports.  Deadline: Thursday, April 18.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 12 Apr 2024 14:52:00 +0200Following the higher-than-expected CPI inflation reading from the United States, bond yields rose sharply from 4.35% to 4.6%, thus reaching a five-month high. This means that expectations for the first US interest rate cut have moved from June to Septem...Bartosz Sawicki from Cinkciarz.pl again the world's most successful currency analyst!https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/bartosz-sawicki-from-cinkciarz-pl-again-the-world-s-most-successful-currency-analysthttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/bartosz-sawicki-from-cinkciarz-pl-again-the-world-s-most-successful-currency-analystCinkciarz.pl, a company belonging to Conotoxia Holding, was the most accurate in the world in forecasting changes in the EUR/PLN exchange rate, according to the latest quarterly ranking by the Bloomberg agency. The ranking is calculated on the basis of monthly surveys that include long-term forecasts sent by dozens of leading financial institutions from around the world. Polish fintech won a total of 10 podium places in Q1 2024, including four wins.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">EUR/PLN forecasts</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">What does the future hold for EUR/PLN?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Achievements of Cinkciarz.pl</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">EUR/PLN forecasts</h2> At the end of March, Cinkciarz.pl analyst Bartosz Sawicki demonstrated the highest forecast accuracy in the world for the EUR/PLN currency pair. His performance on this currency pair over the past four quarters is shown in the chart below. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_prognozy_EURPLN_11.04.png" alt="chart EURPLN" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, EURPLN, Daily As for the USD/PLN currency pair, Cinkciarz.pl came second. The company's forecasts show particular accuracy in the case of emerging market currencies. Cinkciarz.pl took top positions in the rankings for the Chinese yuan (in off-shore markets), the Mexican peso and the Russian rouble. High rankings for other notable currencies in the basket (such as the Turkish lira, Hungarian forint and Romanian leu) contributed to second place in the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) economies category. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">What does the future hold for EUR/PLN?</h2> - We are achieving positive results thanks to our optimistic view of the zloty. Our forecasts for 2023 predicted that the euro exchange rate would close the first quarter at PLN 4.35. We expect the Polish currency to remain strong and stable. We predict that EUR/PLN will gradually approach the level of 4.25, continuing the upward trend of recent months. The zloty should benefit from the MPC's resistance to interest rate cuts, favourable fundamental conditions and expected monetary policy loosening by the Fed and ECB, comments Bartosz Sawicki, analyst at Cinkciarz.pl. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Achievements of Cinkciarz.pl</h2> The latest achievement is already part of Cinkciarz.pl's long history of topping Bloomberg agency rankings. In the past, the global fintech has topped the accuracy rankings for various currency pairs more than 120 times. In the previous quarter, Cinkciarz.pl claimed 14 podium places, including nine wins. Selected positions of Cinkciarz.pl in the Bloomberg ranking after Q1 2024 include: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">1st place in the EUR/PLN currency pair (PLN/EUR exchange rate)</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">1st place in the USD/MXN currency pair (exchange rate of the Mexican peso against the US dollar)</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">1st place for the USD/CNY currency pair (Chinese yuan to US dollar exchange rate on the off-shore market)</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">1st place in the USD/RUB currency pair (rouble to US dollar exchange rate)</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">2nd place in the USD/PLN currency pair (the rate of the zloty in relation to the US dollar)</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">2nd place in the EUR/HUF currency pair (forint vs euro)</li> </ul>   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 11 Apr 2024 09:38:00 +0200Cinkciarz.pl, a company belonging to Conotoxia Holding, was the most accurate in the world in forecasting changes in the EUR/PLN exchange rate, according to the latest quarterly ranking by the Bloomberg agency. The ranking is calculated on the basis of ...TSMC at the forefront of the semiconductor revolution thanks to billions in US supporthttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/tsmc-at-the-forefront-of-the-semiconductor-revolution-thanks-to-billions-in-us-supporthttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/tsmc-at-the-forefront-of-the-semiconductor-revolution-thanks-to-billions-in-us-supportPresident Joe Biden's administration has allocated $11.6 billion to support semiconductor manufacturing in the US. Under the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, Taiwanese giant TSMC will receive the most support in the form of grants and loans to build factories in Arizona, alongside companies such as Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. TSMC's new factory will create state-of-the-art 2-nanometre semiconductors, largely used in the development of artificial intelligence. These investments are particularly important for the United States as they ensure that the country remains internationally competitive. This raises the question: is an investment in the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company currently a good choice?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What is TSMC's business?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">TSMC's financial situation</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">How much are TSMC shares worth?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What is TSMC's business?</h2> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the world's leading independent contract semiconductor manufacturer. It specialises in manufacturing chips for leading global technology companies including Apple, AMD, Nvidia and Qualcomm. TSMC provides manufacturing services using cutting-edge technology, enabling the production of semiconductors as small as 7 nanometres and smaller. These advanced integrated circuits are essential for state-of-the-art processors and graphics cards, playing a key role in the development of artificial intelligence. TSMC is one of the key companies in this segment. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_sprzeda%C5%BC_7nm_10.04.png" alt="chart sales of 7nm and smaller chips" /> Source: TSMC quarterly report The company plays an important role in the global semiconductor supply chain, supporting fabless companies (e.g. Nvidia or AMD) that specialise in designing and selling, among other things, graphics cards. As a result, whichever company succeeds in the area of artificial intelligence, TSMC is very likely to benefit. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_przychody_TSMC_10.04.png" alt="TSMC revenue graph" /> Source: MacroMicro According to Statista, TSMC currently holds as much as 61.2% of the market share of semiconductor manufacturers, successively increasing its position over the last five years. In second place is Samsung with 11.3% of the market share, followed by US-based GlobalFoundries in third place with 5.8% of sales in this market. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_udzia%C5%82_w_rynku_TSMC_10.04.png" alt="TSMC market share graph" /> Source: Counterpoint <h2 id="heading-scroll2">TSMC's financial situation</h2> Intel, one of TSMC's main competitors, manufactures semiconductors used in processors and graphics cards. Despite the growing popularity of artificial intelligence, Intel reported a loss of $482 million from its chip manufacturing operations in 2023. This caused a decline in the value of the stock, which saw significant weakness despite the overall bull market of AI-related companies. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Intel_10.04.png" alt="chart Intel" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Intel, Weekly TSMC reported a 34.3% year-on-year increase in net profit in March, recovering from a months-long slowdown. The average annual profit growth rate for the last 15 years was an impressive 13.4%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zam%C3%B3wienia_p%C3%B3%C5%82przewodnik%C3%B3w_10.04.png" alt="semiconductor procurement diagram" /> Source: MacroMicro TSMC's net profit margin continues to be one of the highest in the company's history at 40%, against an industry average of 14%, demonstrating TSMC's strong competitive position. The high margin is the result of an increased share of sales of 7nm and smaller chips, which have significantly higher margins. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 28%, against an industry average of 14.4%, demonstrating that TSMC uses its capital much more efficiently than its competitors. TSMC's advantage is also expressed in its strong self-financing ability. The debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.28. The company does not encounter liquidity problems, as evidenced by its quick ratio of 2.13. This means that for at least two years TSMC could sustain itself solely on its most liquid assets. In summary, despite recent declines in revenue and profit, TSMC and the semiconductor market as a whole maintains a strong financial position due to high net profit margins, efficient use of capital and the ability to self-finance. The company's low debt-to-equity ratio and high quick ratio underscore its stability. TSMC remains a leader in advanced chip manufacturing, which provides a competitive advantage in the semiconductor market. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">How much are TSMC shares worth?</h2> In order to assess whether an investment in TSMC shares is worthwhile, it is crucial to understand their value. As Professor Aswath Damodaran points out, 'keep your eyes on the price' before making investment decisions. Analysing the available data, we note analysts' cautious approach to the future of the semiconductor sector. The consensus expectation is for earnings per share to grow by 23.5% over the next 12 months, with projected average growth of 4.3% over the next five years. Given the company's minimal debt, we can assume that the expected return will be equal to the long-term average return for the S&P 500 index of 8.9% per annum, which we will use as a discount rate.  Despite its substantial investment, the company pays out a large proportion of the profits earned to investors, as much as 83%, in the form of dividends and share buybacks. This suggests that the current value of the shares could be US$181, giving them a potential upside of 24.4%. By the end of the year, their intrinsic value could oscillate around as much as US$191.7. This means that even under conservative assumptions, TSMC shares could still have upside potential. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wycena_TSMC_ENG_10.04.png" alt="TSMC valuation" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 10 Apr 2024 12:28:00 +0200President Joe Biden's administration has allocated $11.6 billion to support semiconductor manufacturing in the US. Under the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, Taiwanese giant TSMC will receive the most support in the form of grants and loans to build facto...Next week to watch (8-12.04.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-8-12-04-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-8-12-04-2024After a series of economic data that did not bring any major surprises in the last month, the coming week promises to be a period full of turbulence, especially for the US dollar, Canadian dollar and euro exchange rates. On Wednesday, we await CPI inflation readings from the US, as well as the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. The European Central Bank will announce its decision on Thursday. In addition, the first banks will report their financial results for the first quarter of this year, which will give us a better understanding of the situation in this key sector of the US economy.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (March)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Interest rate decision in Canada</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Eurozone interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 10.04, 14:30 CET, US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (March)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. The annual rate of inflation in the US unexpectedly rose to 3.2 per cent in February 2024, up from 3.1 per cent, exceeding forecasts that had assumed inflation would continue. Housing and fuel prices were responsible for 60 per cent of this increase. On the other hand, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices due to their volatility, cooled from 3.9 to 3.8 per cent. The current analyst forecast is for CPI inflation to remain at 3.2 per cent in March. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_USA_05.04.png" alt="graph US inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 10.04, 15:45 CET, interest rate decision in Canada</h2> At its March meeting, the Bank of Canada decided to keep interest rates at 5 per cent and declared further sales of bank assets due to concerns over the inflation outlook. The latest figures show that CPI inflation fell to 2.9 per cent in January, with the Bank of Canada forecasting that inflation will remain close to 3 per cent in the first half of the year before starting to gradually decline. The main problems that Canada's economy is currently facing are, weak GDP growth and slower employment growth compared to population growth. Despite this, Governor Macklem said at a press conference that it was too early to consider lowering interest rates, pointing to the need for a longer period for inflation to approach the 2 per cent target. The current analyst forecast is for the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at 5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_Kanady_05.04.png" alt="interest rate chart Canada" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for CAD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on CAD. Impact: CAD <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 11.04, 14:15 CET, Eurozone interest rate decision</h2> At its March meeting, the Council of the European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.5 per cent. It argued this in response to changing market expectations for monetary policy, better-than-expected data from the global economy and higher-than-expected inflation in the euro area and the US. It acknowledged that despite economic challenges, such as weak GDP and employment growth in the euro area, monetary policy would remain dependent on upcoming data. The Council emphasised in the communication the need for patience and caution in its approach to future decisions. The current analysts' forecast is for the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates at 4.5 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_EBC_05.04.png" alt="ECB interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</h2> JPMorgan (JPM) announces financial results for the quarter ending March 2024 Forecast EPS: 4.24 Positive earnings surprise in 7 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Friday, 12 April. Wells Fargo&Co (WFC) Announces financial results for the quarter ending March 2024 Forecast EPS: 1.1 Positive earnings surprise in 9 of the last 10 reports.  Deadline: Friday, 12 April. BlackRock (BLK) Announces financial results for the quarter ending March 2024 Forecast EPS: 1.1 Positive earnings surprise in 9 of the last 10 reports. Deadline: Friday, 12 April.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 05 Apr 2024 12:05:00 +0200After a series of economic data that did not bring any major surprises in the last month, the coming week promises to be a period full of turbulence, especially for the US dollar, Canadian dollar and euro exchange rates. On Wednesday, we await CPI infla...Bitcoin and ethereum or altcoins: which to choose?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/bitcoin-and-ethereum-or-altcoins-which-to-choosehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/bitcoin-and-ethereum-or-altcoins-which-to-chooseIn the world of cryptocurrencies, where bitcoin and ethereum have long been seen as the gold and silver of this digital domain, news stories such as 'these three cryptocurrencies will soon surpass bitcoin' are increasingly common. This provokes questions about the wisdom of investing in alternative tokens, known as altcoins. We will therefore take a closer look at the top 100 altcoins, their advantages and disadvantages, to better understand which might be a better choice for us.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Cryptocurrency bull market</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Possibility to diversify against BTC and ETH</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">The strongest gaining altcoins</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Is it worth investing in altcoins?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Cryptocurrency bull market</h2> Since bitcoin hit its historic peaks, many altcoins have followed suit. Are we already dealing with a bubble similar to those seen in 2019 and 2021? <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BTCUSD_04.04.png" alt="chart BTCUSD" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Daily If we look at the amount of money in the cryptocurrency market as measured by stablecoin capitalisation, we are still some way away from the levels of the last speculative bubble - currently around 19% relative to the peaks. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Stablecoin_marketcap_04.04.png" alt="chart stablecoin capitalisation" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis, Defilam data <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Possibility to diversify against BTC and ETH</h2> Technically speaking, any cryptocurrency that is not bitcoin or ethereum is called an altcoin. They account for about one-third of the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_udzia%C5%82_w_rynku_krypto_ENG_04.04.png" alt="graph crypto market share" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis For an investment to benefit from diversifying our cryptocurrency portfolio, it should have a low correlation with bitcoin. However, the average correlation of the top 100 altcoins with bitcoin as of early 2023 is 0.5, indicating a significant dependence on this largest cryptocurrency. In comparison, the average correlation in the stock market is around 0.25, which may suggest that declines in the value of bitcoin are very likely to cause altcoin sell-offs. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">The strongest gaining altcoins</h2> Among the top 100 altcoins that have performed best during the current bitcoin bull market (BTC gains since the start of 2023 are 319%) are: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Solana (SOLUSD) +1829%</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">CFX (CFXUSD) +1707%</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Stacks (STXUSD) +1596%</li> </ul> Despite the impressive performance, only 38 of the top 100 altcoins managed to surpass bitcoin's return. The median return of altcoins over the period was 199%, meaning that half of the altcoins recorded a return higher than 199%. For this reason, a high diversification between different altcoins, even over 30 different tokens, was recommended. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_top100_altcoin%C3%B3w_ENG_04.04.png" alt="chart of the top 100 altcoins" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Is it worth investing in altcoins?</h2> An investment in altcoins often carries the potential for higher returns, but also more than twice the risk of bitcoin and ethereum on average. Hence, it seems reasonable to analyse the decision carefully and to be cautious. If one nevertheless decides to invest, a high degree of diversification and spreading one's capital over as many positions as possible can be an effective strategy when choosing altcoins. However, it is important to remember that cryptocurrency markets are characterised by high systematic risk, meaning that the performance of most altcoins is dependent on the success of bitcoin, not vice versa. Another problem with most cryptocurrencies is that they lack the fundamental intrinsic value that other assets such as equities or commodities have. The positive reception of ETFs on bitcoin by investors seems to confirm the usefulness of cryptocurrencies as an investment vehicle and not just as a payment method.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71,48% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 04 Apr 2024 14:53:00 +0200In the world of cryptocurrencies, where bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) have long been seen as the gold and silver of this digital domain, news stories such as 'these three cryptocurrencies will soon surpass bitcoin' are increasingly common. This provo...How will the BoJ's decision affect the Nikkei 225 and USDJPY exchange rates?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/how-will-the-boj-s-decision-affect-the-nikkei-225-and-usdjpy-exchange-rateshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/how-will-the-boj-s-decision-affect-the-nikkei-225-and-usdjpy-exchange-ratesOn 19 March, the Bank of Japan became the latest in the world to end its eight-year negative interest rate policy, raising short-term rates to 0-0.1%. This did not come as a surprise to market analysts, however, due to earlier announcements of the decision. The historic change marks the first rate hike in Japan since the 2008 crisis. Nonetheless, the USD/JPY exchange rate remains at relatively high levels , as does Japan's Nikkei 225 index. So let's consider how the change in monetary policy will affect the yen and Japanese equities in the coming months.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Problems of the Japanese economy</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">The Bank of Japan holds its hand over the intervention button!</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">The future of the Nikkei 225 and the USDJPY</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Problems of the Japanese economy</h2> Japan, now the world's fourth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP, grew so rapidly in the previous century that it caused concern even in the United States. Since the 1990s, however, the country has been struggling with a number of problems. GDP measured in dollars is practically stuck at levels seen 30 years ago. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_Japonii_29.03.png" alt="chart of Japan's GDP" /> Source: TradingEconomics Japan's economy, one of the largest in the world, has a number of problems that could hinder its growth. A major challenge is the ageing population - more than 36% of Japanese are 60 or older. This means there are fewer people to work with and rising healthcare and pension costs. Japan also has a huge debt, one of the highest in the world - 266% of its GDP. Over the years in Japan, prices have been constantly falling, meaning we have had deflation. This discouraged people from spending and investing. Now the situation is starting to change, as inflation has risen to 2.8%. The Bank of Japan has tried to remedy this by buying a lot of assets since 2011 to raise inflation and reduce debt. This has had mixed results - inflation has not risen as fast as wanted, but it has helped reduce the debt problem somewhat. The Bank of Japan now holds as much as 54% of Japanese debt, a world record. However, the bank has decided to cut back on bond purchases, leading to a rise in bond yields from 0 to 0.7% - the biggest rise in a decade. As can be seen in the accompanying chart, recent bond market action (highlighted in blue) has failed to stem the current upward trend in Japan's bond yields (highlighted in red). <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_rentowno%C5%9B%C4%87_obligacji_29.03.png" alt="graph bond yields" /> Source: MacroMicro <h2 id="heading-scroll2">The Bank of Japan holds its hand over the intervention button!</h2> In response to the weakening of the yen, which has pushed the currency to a 34-year low against the dollar, Japan's three main monetary authorities - the Bank of Japan, the Ministry of Finance and the Japan Financial Services Agency - met on Wednesday, 27 March, to discuss the yen's weakness and suggested a willingness to intervene in the market to prevent speculative currency movements. However, would this really be an effective measure? The last time the Bank of Japan intervened was in October 2022, when the yen reached lows near 152 per dollar. At that time, an estimated 9.2 trillion yen (about $60 billion) was spent to defend the exchange rate. Which effectively lowered the USD/JPY exchange rate by 16%, to around 128. This intervention accounted for approx. 4.6% of the foreign assets held by the Bank of Japan. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_bilans_BoJ_29.03.png" alt="BoJ balance sheet chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics Since the cessation of the intervention, however, the weakening trend for the Japanese currency has not changed. It seems that a particularly important level for the USD/JPY pair here will be 152. Which has been defended by the market 3 times since the last intervention. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_interwencja_walutowa_JPY_29.03.png" alt="chart BoJ currency intervention" /> Source: Fred <h2 id="heading-scroll3">The future of the Nikkei 225 and the USDJPY</h2> Typically, in economies where exports account for a significant share of GDP, a weakening of the domestic currency can have a positive impact on exporters' profits. The share of exports in Japan's GDP has been rising steadily, reaching 20% compared to 10.9% in the United States, for example. Consequently, the weak position of the yen is conducive to increasing profits for Japanese exporters, which include major corporations such as Toyota, Sony and Nintendo. Moreover, the emergence of price increases, or inflation, for the first time in decades is driving sales profits for many domestic companies. This resulted in an 8.5% increase in cumulative earnings per share in 2023 compared to the previous year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_JP225_29.03.png" alt="chart JP225" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, JP225, Daily The situation in the USD/JPY currency market can be illustrated by the Bank of Japan holding its hand over the button 'marked intervention'. The Central Bank seems practically ready to act, which could bring the exchange rate back to the 140 level. However, it is worth emphasising that the Bank of Japan's ability to intervene is limited, especially in the context of raising interest rates. An increase in interest rates in Japan seems unlikely, as this could significantly increase the cost of new debt in a country that is already the most indebted developed country in the world. Consequently, verbal and monetary interventions remain the main tools. The problem is that, in the scenario of abandoning intervention, Japan's continued reduction in bond purchases could maintain the tendency to weaken the yen, whose exchange rate in that case could be shaped mainly by the economy's declining competitiveness for decades. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_USDJPY_29.03.png" alt="chart USDJPY" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, USDJPY, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 29 Mar 2024 12:47:00 +0100On 19 March, the Bank of Japan became the latest in the world to end its eight-year negative interest rate policy, raising short-term rates to 0-0.1%. This did not come as a surprise to market analysts, however, due to earlier announcements of the decis...Trump Media and Reddit to go public: The beginning of a new IPO era?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/trump-media-and-reddit-to-go-public-the-beginning-of-a-new-ipo-erahttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/trump-media-and-reddit-to-go-public-the-beginning-of-a-new-ipo-eraAfter a period of stagnation in the IPO market, recent months have brought a significant revival in this investment sphere. A landmark moment seems to have been the debut of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., a company founded by the current US presidential candidate, with a 55 per cent increase in share value on the very first day of trading. A similarly impressive start was recorded by the well-known social networking platform Reddit, whose shares jumped by 48 per cent. These events may signal the beginning of a new era in the IPO market, making one wonder whether investments in IPOs offer a solid basis for profit or are a risky gamble.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What is an IPO?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Situation on the IPO market</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Is it worth investing in IPOs?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What is an IPO?</h2> IPO, also known as Initial Public Offering (IPO), is the process by which a company offers its shares to the public for the first time and begins to be listed on the stock exchange. It is a watershed moment for many companies transitioning from private to public company status. The process enables the company to raise new capital from listed investors, which can be used to fund further growth, investment, debt repayment or other business objectives. The diverse nature of IPOs makes it advisable to read the prospectus before participating in any of them, from which we can learn in detail, among other things, how the company has fared so far, what the funds from the IPO are to be used for, and the characteristics of the company's business. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US500_27.03.png" alt="chart US500" /> Chart: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Weekly <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Situation on the IPO market</h2> The market for IPOs is characterized by considerable cyclicality. History has repeatedly proven that an increase in the valuations of stock indices is often followed by a wave of new IPOs. This phenomenon was particularly confirmed in 2021, when we saw historic peaks on the main indices. In contrast, 2023 saw the lowest number of IPOs on the US stock market since 2016. It looks like the current year has a chance to break this unfavourable trend, especially as most of the main indices have set new records. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_ilo%C5%9B%C4%87_PIO_27.03.png" alt="chart number of IPOs" /> Source: StockAnalysis <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Is it worth investing in IPOs?</h2> Investing in IPOs is often as promising as it is risky. The decision to commit capital to a particular IPO always depends on an individual assessment of the IPO. In addition to the opportunity to participate in the development of often innovative and rapidly growing companies, investors should be aware of the risks associated with such ventures. IPOs involve significant risks due to high price volatility, the lack of a long history as a public company and the possibility of overvaluation of the company at the time of the initial public offering (IPO). These companies often enter the market with ambitious plans, but without a stabilised market position or predictable earnings, this can make it difficult to accurately assess their value. Furthermore, the limited availability of information and the potential difficulty in interpreting available data can increase investment risk. Analysing the overall trend of IPO day investments, it is noted that the median return on IPO day stocks since 1980 has been 7 per cent. However, 2023, which has been characterised by the lowest number of IPOs in recent years, has also produced some of the worst performance on record. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_mediana_st%C3%B3p_IPO_ENG_27.03.png" alt="chart of median IPO rates" />  Source: Conotoxia own analysis, Data survey Jay R. Ritter, Cordell Eminent Scholar, Eugene F., Warrington College of Business, University of Florida If we look at what percentage of IPOs ended with a positive return, the multi-year average looks very optimistic at 70.6 per cent. Again, in this respect, 2023 was one of the worse years on record. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_procento_debiut%C3%B3w_ENG_27.03.png" alt="graph of percentage of IPOs" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis, Data survey Jay R. Ritter, Cordell Eminent Scholar, Eugene F., Warrington College of Business, University of Florida But has it historically paid to hold on to shares for more than one day after listing? It turns out that, on average, companies achieved a positive return during the first year of listing, which was 6 per cent. Unfortunately, this is not higher than the average annual return of the main S&P 500 index, which was 10 per cent during the period analysed. Furthermore, it is worth noting that during periods of economic downturn, IPOs often underperformed the market. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_%C5%9Brednia_roczna_stopa_IPO_ENG_27.03.png" alt="graph average return on IPOs" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis, Data survey Jay R. Ritter, Cordell Eminent Scholar, Eugene F., Warrington College of Business, University of Florida   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 27 Mar 2024 13:46:00 +0100After a period of stagnation in the IPO market, recent months have brought a significant revival in this investment sphere. A landmark moment seems to have been the debut of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., a company founded by the current US presi...Bitcoin halving. Will the price of the cryptocurrency break through US$100,000?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/bitcoin-halving-will-the-price-of-the-cryptocurrency-break-through-us-100-000https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/bitcoin-halving-will-the-price-of-the-cryptocurrency-break-through-us-100-000Halving bitcoin, one of the most important events in the entire cryptocurrency market, falls this year on 19 April. It will take place amid the highly successful debut of bitcoin ETFs. The billions of dollars flowing into the ETFs are helping to set new historic highs in the price of the most popular cryptocurrency. Is the situation in this market really that optimistic? Or has the BTC price become detached from reality and its fundamentals? And how can you use the upcoming halving of the most important cryptocurrency to your own advantage?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What does the cryptocurrency market really look like?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Has the bitcoin price lost touch with reality, become detached from its fundamentals?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">How can you use the upcoming halving of the most important cryptocurrency to your advantage?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What does the cryptocurrency market really look like?</h2> The price of bitcoin has increased by 664% after the last halving (11 May 2020). This will now be the fourth full halving since the cryptocurrency's inception. We saw an impressive 5430% price increase after the first and 1163% after the second. It is worth recalling that halving on bitcoin takes place regularly every four years and is designed to reduce the supply of the cryptocurrency. So far, each time after halving has occurred, the price of bitcoin has dynamically increased over the next few months. Will this trend be repeated now? Before we try to answer this question, let us take a look at the current situation in the bitcoin market. Since the beginning of the year alone, more than USD 9.7 billion of new funds have flowed into the cryptocurrency market from ETFs. Currently, ETFs hold as much as USD 53.7 billion in bitcoin, representing 3.8 per cent of all bitcoin. The popularity of such solutions may have exceeded market expectations, resulting in a dramatic increase in the price of bitcoin and...  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_nap%C5%82yw_ETF%C3%B3w_12.03.png" alt="chart of inflows from ETFs" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis, data from THE BLOCK ...what may seem like an interesting increase in the capitalisation of stablecoin, which is equivalent to the amount of money on stock exchanges. The reversal of more than 1.5 years of decline in stablecoin capitalisation coincides with the first announcements of the acceptance of bitcoin ETFs in the US. However, despite the cryptocurrency's strong gains, there is still 22.8 per cent less money relative to the last crypto bull market, which would suggest that it is now hard to talk about a bubble. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_kapitalizacja_stablecoin%C3%B3w_12.03.png" alt="Stablecoin capitalisation chart" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis, Defilam data The huge success of spot ETFs on bitcoin has prompted an influx of requests to create similar instruments on more cryptocurrencies. First in line seems to be ethereum, which has already gained 75% since the start of the year, ahead of a 70% rise on bitcoin. Trouble is, however, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) seems reluctant to approve funds on yet another cryptocurrency. The deadline for the SEC's decision on the possible approval of ETFs on ethereum is scheduled for 23 May this year. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Has the bitcoin price lost touch with reality, become detached from its fundamentals?</h2> The economic situation may have contributed to the recent bull market in cryptocurrencies. Low interest rates in the United States and pandemic stimulus programmes led to a significant flow of funds into the financial markets. It seemed that the success of cryptocurrencies was closely linked to the policies of central banks. Meanwhile, today, despite an unfavourable macroeconomic environment characterised by the highest interest rates in a decade and the sale of reserves by the Fed, bitcoin seems to be going its own way. This may confirm its strength and unique position, and the expected turnaround in central banks' policies, together with a further decline in inflation, may further drive BTC prices. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_bilans_fed_12.03.png" alt="chart of the Fed balance sheet" /> Source: Fred However, the main problem in analysing bitcoin's fundamentals appears to be its utility, which has long lagged behind its investment value. Forecasting the exact price levels of bitcoin is therefore an extremely difficult task. One might even say impossible. Unlike other assets such as stocks or bonds, bitcoin does not generate direct cash flows for holders. For this reason, it is difficult to determine its real value. Therefore, it is better to focus on the price, which is the result of supply and demand, as well as the specific market conditions of the cryptocurrency itself. As we pointed out earlier, the demand for cryptocurrencies is increasing dramatically, as manifested by the influx of new funds into the market, and the expectation of a halving of supply from cryptocurrency digging due to halving seems to have been priced in advance. As a result, we are seeing a massive increase in the price of cryptocurrency. Because of this, it seems that we cannot quite say that the bitcoin price has unstuck from its fundamentals. However, it is important to remember that we are only talking about the investment use of the cryptocurrency here. It does not appear that halving will have any impact on the wider use of bitcoin beyond investment.  <h2 id="heading-scroll3">How can you use the upcoming halving of the most important cryptocurrency to your advantage?</h2> This raises the question of whether the halving effect is already factored into cryptocurrency prices, in line with the stock market's 'buy the rumours, sell the facts' premise. If everyone expects the price to rise after an event, many investors may purchase assets before the event occurs, which in turn may lead to a price decline when the event is realised. Precisely determining the effect of an event and the extent of any sell-off is very difficult. It seems that even if a sell-off does occur, the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market indicate that it will not be an event with catastrophic consequences for the cryptocurrency market as a whole, which depends heavily on bitcoin. Therefore, long-term forecasts for the price of BTC seem optimistic, suggesting that its value could even exceed $100,000. And that could happen later this year!   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 12 Mar 2024 15:53:00 +0100Halving bitcoin, one of the most important events in the entire cryptocurrency market, falls this year on 19 April. It will take place amid the highly successful debut of bitcoin ETFs. The billions of dollars flowing into the ETFs are helping to set new...Next week to watch (19-23.02.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-19-23-02-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-19-23-02-2024It appears that optimistic expectations of falling inflation in the US have not yet been reflected in the data. CPI inflation turned out to be higher than forecast, remaining virtually unchanged above 3% since July 2023. It seems that the minutes of Wednesday's FOMC meeting will provide information on interest rate projections for the coming months. In addition, the final CPI inflation reading for the euro area will be presented on Thursday, and on Friday we will find out whether Germany's economy has entered a recession.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (January)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q4)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 21.02, 19:00 GMT, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes</h2> Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are documents detailing the discussions and decisions made during FOMC meetings. Published a few weeks after each meeting, the minutes provide insights into the committee members' deliberations regarding the country's economic condition, the economic outlook and other relevant factors influencing monetary policy decisions. They are a key source of information for investors, analysts and economists, providing a deeper understanding of the potential direction of the Federal Reserve's actions and their impact on the economy. We learned from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent January speech that it was decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with future potential changes dependent on incoming economic data. The Committee does not expect to change interest rates until it is more confident that inflation is steadily heading towards the 2% level. The Committee also communicated a continuation of its reduction in Treasury bonds and other debt assets in line with previously announced plans. It looks like we will have to wait for interest rate cuts. According to the FedWatch tool, which analyses market valuations of the probability of interest rate changes, with a probability of 77.3% we can expect them in June this year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_prawdopodobie%C5%84stwo_st%C3%B3p_16.02.png" alt="interest rate probability table" /> Source: CMEGroup More hawkish signals from the FOMC meeting minutes could have a bullish impact on the USD, while more dovish signals could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 22.02, 10:00 GMT, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (January)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. Preliminary readings told us that the January inflation rate in the euro area fell from 2.9 to 2.8% on an annual basis. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, continued its decline to 3.3%, above forecasts of 3.2%, but reaching its lowest level since March 2022. Energy prices fell by 6.3% (compared to a decline of 6.7% in December), while services inflation remained stable at 4.0%. Price growth slowed for food, alcohol and tobacco (5.7 vs 6.1%) and non-energy industrial goods (2 vs 2.5%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.4 in January, following an increase of 0.2% in December. The current analyst forecast is to confirm the January CPI inflation reading of 2.8%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_Euro_16.02.png" alt="graph inflation eurozone" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 23.02, 7:00 GMT, Germany's gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q4)</h2> Gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the total value of goods and services produced in a country for a certain period. GDP is an important indicator of the health of an economy because it gives an overall picture of how well or poorly it is doing. If the GDP growth is higher than expected, the economy is in good shape and growing faster than expected. On the other hand, if the GDP growth is lower than expected, the economy performs weaker than anticipated. Furthermore, if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, it may be considered a technical recession due to contracting economic output. We know from preliminary estimates that the German economy slowed by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2023, a decline after two quarters of economic stagnation. Europe's largest economy encountered increasing difficulties, struggling with the consequences of rising prices and increased borrowing costs, which hit the industrial sector in particular. Net fixed assets showed a significant decline, primarily due to a reduction in investment in the construction sector and in the purchase of machinery and equipment. On an annual basis, the economy contracted by 0.2% in Q4 2023, entering a technical recession for the first time since the 2020-21 period. The current analyst forecast is to confirm the quarterly GDP reading at minus 0.3%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_Niemcy_16.02.png" alt="graph of German GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</h2> Walmart (WMT) announces financial results for the quarter ending January 2023. Forecast EPS: 1.63. Positive earnings surprise in 9 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Tuesday, 20 February.  NVIDIA (NVDA) announces financial results for the quarter ending January 2023. Forecast EPS: 4.54. Positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports.  Deadline: Wednesday, 21 February.  Booking (BKNG) announces financial results for the quarter ending January 2023. Forecast EPS: 29.66. Positive earnings surprise in 10 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Thursday, 22 February.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 16 Feb 2024 13:15:00 +0100It appears that optimistic expectations of falling inflation in the US have not yet been reflected in the data. CPI inflation turned out to be higher than forecast, remaining virtually unchanged above 3% since July 2023. It seems that the minutes of Wed...Super investors sold shares en masse in the last quarter. We know in which sectors!https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/super-investors-sold-shares-en-masse-in-the-last-quarter-we-know-in-which-sectorshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/super-investors-sold-shares-en-masse-in-the-last-quarter-we-know-in-which-sectorsAlmost all asset managers with more than $100 million in assets have now filed their 13F reports for Q4 2023. We can learn from them what the best of the best bought and sold in the last quarter. So let's analyse what stocks and sectors were in the spotlight for investors such as Warren Buffett or Michael Burry.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What were the superinvestors buying and selling?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How did Warren Buffett invest in Q4 2023?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Michael Burry completely changes his strategy in Q4 2023!</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Conclusions</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What were the superinvestors buying and selling?</h2> At a time when the theme of artificial intelligence development is growing in popularity and with the Nasdaq 100 technology index up 10.8% over the past three months, top investors sold off stocks en masse, primarily from the technology sector, which accounted for 1.066% of their total portfolio. An analysis of net stock purchases (total purchases minus sales) by sector shows that in the last quarter of 2023, super investors sold off stocks from almost all sectors, which together accounted for 2.9% of the value of all assets held. The sell-off in technology stocks <a href="https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/how-did-the-biggest-warren-buffett-michael-burry-or-bill-and-melinda-gates-invest-in-q3">appears to continue the trend already noted in Q3 2023.</a> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_sektory_superinwestorzy_15.02.png" alt="chart superinvestors sectors" /> Source: Dataroma, net purchases in Q4 2023. Despite the general trend of a sell-off in technology company shares, the most frequently bought company was Alphabet (Google), whose shares were acquired by as many as eight super-investors. Microsoft came second, followed by Amazon and Visa. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How did Warren Buffett invest in Q4 2023?</h2> Warren Buffett, known for his conservative approach to long-term investing, made significant changes to his portfolio.  <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The most striking was the sale of a 77% stake in computer and printer maker HP Inc. which accounted for 0.7% of the total portfolio value. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">The second-largest deal was the purchase of shares in Chevron Corp. the oil giant, which increased the portfolio by 0.68%. </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In third place was an adjustment to shares in Apple, the largest position in Buffett's portfolio, which impacted the fund's portfolio by 0.55%.</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_zmiany_Buffett_15.02.png" alt="Buffett change table" /> Source: Dataroma <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Apple_15.02.png" alt="chart Apple" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Apple, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Michael Burry completely changes his strategy in Q4 2023!</h2> Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis and renowned for frequent changes to his investment portfolio, has made some significant moves. At the end of Q3 Ub.r. Burry opened positions on the decline of the semiconductor sector. He used options to bet on declines in the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which at that point accounted for 47.86% of his portfolio value, and bought options on declines in Booking Holdings Inc. shares, accounting for 7.79% of his portfolio value. However, in the last quarter of 2023, he closed these positions at a loss. With this, he seems to have changed his approach sharply, making numerous new purchases to his portfolio and completely selling as many as 4 of his largest existing positions. Burry has completely sold shares in:  <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">the global car manufacturer Stellantis N.V., which owns brands such as Peugeot, Citroën, Fiat, Jeep and Dodge, these shares accounted for as much as 17.43% of the value of the total equity portfolio;</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">one of the largest tanker operators in the world, transporting crude oil and petroleum products Euronav NV, with a total value of 9.36% of the total portfolio;</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Hudson Pacific Properties, a real estate investment trust (REIT) that specialises in owning, managing, developing and acquiring office and media properties primarily on the west coast of the United States;</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">a US energy company, primarily active in the upstream oil and gas sector, Crescent Energy, with a total portfolio size of 5.76%.</li> </ul> Michael Burry's portfolio has changed dramatically from what we have seen for most of 2023, when he repeatedly tried to catch a reversal in the broad equity market's uptrend. However, it seems that after months of battling the bull market, he has decided to go along with the prevailing market trend, betting on companies mainly in the consumer goods sector (accounting for a total of 29.4% of the portfolio) such as China's Alibaba and JD.com and US Amazon. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_zmiany_Burry_15.02.png" alt="table change Burry" /> Source: Dataroma <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Conclusions</h2> When analysing the transactions made by super investors in the last quarter, it should be taken into account that many of these investments were made more than two months ago. This may affect the timeliness of the investment picture in the market. Interestingly, at a time when discussions about successes and breakthroughs in artificial intelligence dominated, leading investors were focused on finding investment opportunities in other areas.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 15 Feb 2024 13:15:00 +0100Almost all asset managers with more than $100 million in assets have now filed their 13F reports for Q4 2023. We can learn from them what the best of the best bought and sold in the last quarter. So let's analyse what stocks and sectors were in the spot...OPEC raises production forecasts. Nevertheless, the data is surprising!https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/opec-raises-production-forecasts-nevertheless-the-data-is-surprisinghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/opec-raises-production-forecasts-nevertheless-the-data-is-surprisingOPEC has updated its forecasts for average global oil production for 2024-2025, with demand expectations almost unchanged. We take a look at the current state of the oil market and what the future may hold for the oil price.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Increasing oil shortages on the market</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Oil stocks at lowest level since 1985!</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Largest mining output in US history</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">What is the outlook for oil prices?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Increasing oil shortages on the market</h2> Assuming OPEC maintains current production levels and production forecasts from Russia and the United States increase, a shortfall in crude is still projected to reach around 1.3 per cent of global demand in 2024. By comparison, similar levels of shortfall were seen in 2021, when crude prices increased by 49 per cent and the shortfall then reached 1.7 per cent of global demand. For 2023 as a whole, a cooling in the oil market was observed, with prices falling by 10.3 per cent and shortage levels decreasing to 0.38 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_niedobory_ropy_ENG_14.02.png" alt="graph of oil market shortages" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis, OPEC data <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Oil stocks at lowest level since 1985!</h2> The continuation of oil shortages in the market is forcing countries to use their oil stocks. This indicates a continuation of the trend of declining oil stocks, which are already at their lowest level since 1985 in the United States! Total stocks in the USA have decreased by a total of 5 per cent over the last 12 months.  A lack of adequate oil stocks can lead to a number of negative consequences. It could result in higher energy prices, which will directly affect the cost of living for consumers and costs for businesses. The threat to energy security is another major risk, as in the event of supply disruptions, a lack of stocks could result in fuel shortages. This, in turn, can negatively affect the economy and national security and even lead to economic recession due to increased production and transport costs. Furthermore, countries without sufficient reserves may become more dependent on imports, making them more vulnerable to price changes and export policies of other countries. Maintaining strategic oil reserves is therefore being considered as a key element of energy policy and national security by many countries, with the aim of ensuring energy stability and independence in the face of unpredictable global market events. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zapasy_ropy_ENG_14.02.png" alt="graph oil stocks" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis, EIA data <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Largest mining output in US history</h2> The decline in oil stocks came despite record levels of oil production. The US, which is the largest single oil producer and accounts for 20.5 per cent of global production, is currently using almost all of its production capacity. This severely limits the potential for further production increases. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_produkcja_ropy_naftowej_ENG_14.02.png" alt="chart oil production" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis, EIA data <h2 id="heading-scroll4">What is the outlook for oil prices?</h2> According to projections made in Conotoxia's annual report for the end of 2023, it appears that the United States' ability to influence a reduction in the price of this commodity is virtually exhausted. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States has seen historically large increases in production, utilising as much as 94 per cent of its capacity, and the lowest level of crude stocks since 1985. This - combined with growing shortages, which OPEC analysts predict at levels comparable to those of 2021, when oil prices rose 49 per cent, and expectations of economic recovery - could lead to an increase in the price of oil, even exceeding the USD 100 per barrel level. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_WTIUSD_14.02.png" alt="WTIUSD chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, WTIUSD, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 14 Feb 2024 13:39:00 +0100OPEC has updated its forecasts for average global oil production for 2024-2025, with demand expectations almost unchanged. We take a look at the current state of the oil market and what the future may hold for the oil price.The AI revolution is driving the semiconductor boom. Is this already the peak or just the beginning of new growth?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-ai-revolution-is-driving-the-semiconductor-boom-is-this-already-the-peak-or-just-the-beginning-of-new-growthhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-ai-revolution-is-driving-the-semiconductor-boom-is-this-already-the-peak-or-just-the-beginning-of-new-growthAt the heart of the financial markets, the semiconductor sector has seen a staggering 83% growth in the last 12 months.This could be largely due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence . This technology, which is revolutionising almost every aspect of our lives, is increasing the demand for advanced microprocessors and integrated circuits, putting semiconductor manufacturers at the heart of the technological transformation. In the face of this phenomenal growth, many investors are wondering whether the semiconductor sector still harbours profit potential or whether the best opportunities have passed. In this article, we take a look at the current state of the industry, its key players and the challenges and opportunities to assess whether investing in semiconductor stocks could pay off in the coming years?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Semiconductor sector: Nvidia, Intel, TSMC or AMD?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Is it still worth investing in the semiconductor sector?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Semiconductor sector: Nvidia, Intel, TSMC or AMD?</h2> A cornerstone of modern technology, the semiconductor sector has long been seen as an indicator of future technological trends. Present from smartphones to cars, microprocessors and integrated circuits, data centres and advanced computer systems are essential to our daily lives. With the increasing use of artificial intelligence in various fields, the importance of semiconductors continues to grow, opening up new opportunities for innovation and profit. According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, in December 2023, global semiconductor orders increased by 19.1% compared to the previous year, ending a slowdown in the industry. Since 2008, the sector has shown an average annual growth rate of 6.9%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zam%C3%B3wienia_p%C3%B3%C5%82przewodnik%C3%B3w_ENG_13.02.png" alt="semiconductor procurement diagram" />Source: Conotoxia own analysis, WSTS data Among semiconductor manufacturers, Taiwan's TSMC dominates the market with 59% share, followed by South Korea's Samsung, with 13% share, and third place goes to UMC, also a Taiwanese company, with 6% market share. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_udzia%C5%82_w_rynku.png" alt="graph semiconductor market share" /> Source: CounterPoint Research There are also companies that adopt a 'fabless' business model, focusing on semiconductor design without being involved in manufacturing. An example of this is Nvidia, which accounts for 38.6% of the sector's capitalisation. Broadcom and AMD play similar roles, with shares of 13% and 6% respectively. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/Tabela_cieplna_sp%C3%B3%C5%82ki_p%C3%B3%C5%82przewodnikowe_13.02.png" alt="heat table capitalisation of semiconductor companies" /> Source: Finviz Although Nvidia is the most expensive company in the semiconductor sector in terms of capitalisation, it only ranks third in terms of sales volume, with 10.5% market share. TSMC, which is a manufacturer for companies such as Nvidia, AMD and Apple, is 60% ahead of Nvidia in terms of sales value, despite its much lower capitalisation. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_udzia%C5%82_w_rynku_p%C3%B3%C5%82przewodnik%C3%B3w_ENG_13.02.png" alt="graph semiconductor market share" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Is it still worth investing in the semiconductor sector?</h2> In addition to selecting individual semiconductor companies for our investment portfolio, it is possible to invest in the entire sector. An example of a fund that allows such an investment is the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). Following New York University's Professor Aswath Damodaran's principle of 'always pay attention to the price' (keep your eyes on the price), analysing future earnings forecasts for semiconductor companies can provide valuable insights. Data from Professor Damodaran shows that the average projected earnings growth rate for these companies over the next five years is 12.71%, with these companies reinvesting an average of 51.1% of their profits into the sector. This suggests that the current intrinsic value of the fund could be around US$555, which is around 12% lower than the current price of the SOXX fund. This is one potential signal of an overvaluation of the sector. However, if we expect the sector to develop faster than forecast, there is still potential for further value appreciation in the sector. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wycena_SOXX__na%20podstawie_prognoz_ENG_13.02.png" alt="tablea valuation of SOXX based on forecasts" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 13 Feb 2024 12:55:00 +0100At the heart of the financial markets, the semiconductor sector has seen a staggering 83% growth in the last 12 months.This could be largely due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI). This technology, which is revolutionising almost e...Next week to watch (5-9.02.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-5-9-02-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-5-9-02-2024Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, appears to have cooled market expectations for an early US interest rate cut. We found confirmation of these expectations in Friday's non-farm employment data, which positively beat even the most optimistic forecasts of experts. In the new week, we can expect above all a continuation of the earnings season. Data for Q4 2023 will be reported by, among others: McDonald's, Walt Disney or Uber. We will also learn about the interest rate decision in Australia.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US services sector confidence index (PMI) (January)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Interest rate decision in Australia</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">German consumer price index (CPI) on a monthly basis (January)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Monday, 5.02, 14:45 GMT, US services sector confidence index (PMI) (January)</h2> The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an economic indicator used to assess the health of an economy's manufacturing and service sectors. It is widely used by investors, analysts and economists as an early warning indicator that can foreshadow trends in production, employment, orders and other key areas of economic activity. Purchasing managers at companies are surveyed and the results indicate expected improvement (above 50) or deterioration (below 50) in the sector. It is used as an early warning of economic change. According to preliminary data, the S&P Global US Services PMI index for January 2024 rose to 52.9, the highest level in seven months and above market expectations of 51. The improvement may have been mainly due to more orders from customers and news that their inventories were running out. However, new export orders fell marginally. The increase in hiring was due to companies' efforts to catch up and complete unfinished business from January. In order to win new orders, companies kept production cost increases at the lowest level since June 2020, when the current wave of inflation began. The current analyst forecast is for the PMI to be confirmed at 52.9. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PMI_USA_5.02.png" alt="US PMI chart" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Tuesday, 6.02, 3:30 GMT, interest rate decision in Australia</h2> At the December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia Board, interest rates were kept at 4.35%, in line with market expectations. The decision will allow the bank to assess the impact of previous interest rate rises. Governor Michele Bullock had earlier noted that inflation was rising mainly due to excess demand in the country. She said progress in bringing inflation back to the 2-3% target has been slower than expected and the cost of services is rising. Bank of Australia officials stressed that further monetary tightening will depend on data and risk assessments. The central bank will closely monitor the global economy, domestic demand and inflation and the labour market. The current analyst forecast is for the interest rate to remain at 4.35%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_Australia_5.02.png" alt="chart of Australia's interest rates" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for AUD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on AUD. Impact: AUD <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 9.02, 10:00 GMT, German consumer price index (CPI) on a monthly basis (January)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. In January 2024, German consumer price inflation fell to an annualised rate of 2.9%, compared to 3.7% the previous month, which was below market expectations of 3.0%, according to preliminary estimates. This was the lowest rate since June 2021, driven by a slowdown in commodity inflation (2.3 versus 4.1% in December). Among commodities, energy costs fell by 2.8, following an increase of 4.1% in December, and food inflation eased to 3.8 from 4.5%. Meanwhile, services prices rose faster (3.4 versus 3.2%). Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 3.4% in January, reaching its lowest level since June 2022. The EU's harmonised index of consumer price inflation (HICP) slowed to 3.1 from December's 3.8%, also marginally below expectations of 3.2%. Analysts' current forecast is for a confirmation of January's CPI inflation reading of 2.9%.The level of expected <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_CPI_Niemcy_5.02.png" alt="chart of CPI Germany" />Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</h2>     McDonald's (MCD) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 2.83. Positive earnings surprise in 9 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Monday, 5 February.  Walt Disney (DIS) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 0.99. Positive earnings surprise in 6 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Wednesday, 7 February.  Uber Tech (UBER) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. EPS forecast: 0.15. Positive earnings surprise in 7 of last 10 reports.  Deadline: Wednesday, 7 February.  AstraZeneca ADR (AZN) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 0.74. Positive earnings surprise in 9 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Thursday, 8 February.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comMon, 05 Feb 2024 10:58:00 +0100Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, appears to have cooled market expectations for an early US interest rate cut. We found confirmation of these expectations in Friday's non-farm employment data, which positively beat even the most optimistic forecasts of ...India outperforms the Hong Kong stock market by capitalisation! Is it worth investing in India?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/india-outperforms-the-hong-kong-stock-market-by-capitalisation-is-it-worth-investing-in-indiahttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/india-outperforms-the-hong-kong-stock-market-by-capitalisation-is-it-worth-investing-in-indiaIndia's equity market capitalisation has surpassed the Hong Kong stock market for the first time, becoming the fourth largest equity market in the world. This rapidly growing country, which is also the most populous in the world, may offer more and more investment opportunities. It is worth considering how fast India is growing and whether it is currently profitable to invest in shares from this market?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">India's economic success</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Is it worth investing in Indian stocks?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">India's economic success</h2> In 2023. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that India's real GDP growth will be 6.7% per annum, up from an earlier forecast of 6.4%. India is projected to achieve the highest growth rate among the world's 13 largest economies in 2024, with China in second place. The last 10 years have significantly changed the picture of the Indian economy, which has grown nominally by 86.9%. One of the main drivers of growth has been the high population growth, increasing by 16.2% to reach over 1.4 billion people. This represents about 18% of the world's population, making India the most populous nation in the world, which has done much to push its country's development forward in recent years. From the latest IMF report, we learn that India's economy is moving towards being a significant contributor to global growth in the coming years, thanks to its young population and improved physical and digital infrastructure. The launch of public investment has created a favourable environment for private capital raising. The 2022 report estimated India's growth at 6.8% in 2022-23, while actual growth, according to preliminary estimates, was 7.2%. GDP growth projections for the next few years are optimistic, and private consumption is growing. Inflation is declining, which favours further growth in private consumption. Structural reforms to improve the productivity and skills of workers may be responsible for much of the success. Programmes such as the Skill India Mission, the National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme and the National Career Service portal aim to increase employment and improve working conditions. From the latest Finance Bill released on 1 February this year, we learn that despite planned increased infrastructure investment of 17%, India is projecting a decline in the fiscal deficit to 5.1% in 2024 from 5.9% in 2023. Currently, India has a relatively acceptable debt-to-GDP ratio of 86.5%, which is not an alarming indicator. Moreover, India has a good level of foreign investment as a proportion of GDP, which stands at 1.5%. In comparison, China has a ratio of 1% and Germany at 1.2%. This indicates that India is becoming an increasingly attractive destination for investors, which could open up new opportunities. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Is it worth investing in Indian stocks?</h2> India's NIFTY 50 index, comprising the 50 largest Indian companies, rose 20% in 2023, ranking only behind Japan's Nikkei 225 among Asian indices. The rise in India's stock markets is accelerating a flurry of new IPOs. The profits of the Indian companies increase yet faster. The price/earnings (P/E) ratio has fallen from 42 to 22.3 in just three years, approaching its multi-year average. In comparison, this ratio for the largest US index is now 26.6, meaning that the current valuation of Indian companies relative to last year's earnings is lower than its US counterpart. The 2023 earnings of companies in the NIFTY index have grown at more than three times the rate of their US counterpart, at 16.3% compared to the 5% growth in the US market. The highest expected economic growth rates among the G20 countries, strong corporate earnings growth and strong foreign investor interest appear to be creating favourable conditions for new investment opportunities in the Indian market, which is likely to surprise investors with high earnings growth rates in the coming years. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PE_Indii_02.02.png" alt="Price to earnings ratio of India" /> Source: Trendlyne   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 02 Feb 2024 13:39:00 +0100India's equity market capitalisation has surpassed the Hong Kong stock market for the first time, becoming the fourth largest equity market in the world. This rapidly growing country, which is also the most populous in the world, may offer more and more...How will the interest rate decision affect the EUR/USD and SPX? What to look out for ahead of the FOMC meeting?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/how-will-the-interest-rate-decision-affect-the-eur-usd-and-spx-what-to-look-out-for-ahead-of-the-fomc-meetinghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/how-will-the-interest-rate-decision-affect-the-eur-usd-and-spx-what-to-look-out-for-ahead-of-the-fomc-meetingA new US interest rate decision will be announced today. This will be the first meeting of the year and could prove crucial for markets throughout Q1 this year. The next FOMC meeting will not take place until the end of March. So let's consider what factors have historically influenced FOMC decisions, what the current economic situation is and how markets view the upcoming meetings to understand what we can expect at today's meeting.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What factors have historically influenced FOMC decisions most strongly?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">What is the current economic situation in the USA?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">How are markets pricing the upcoming FOMC meetings?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">What impact might today's meeting have on the USD and SPX exchange rate?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What factors have historically influenced FOMC decisions most strongly?</h2> As we can read in the Fed's statutes, its main objectives are to maintain price stability, i.e. inflation at around 2%, and to support the economy by promoting full employment in the United States. To achieve these goals, the Fed uses various monetary policy tools that affect the demand and supply of balances, mainly banks, held at the Federal Reserve. The most popular of these is the recently significantly used interest rates. What factors have had the greatest influence on interest rate decisions in the United States? An analysis of the long-term correlations between interest rates and the aforementioned factors shows that inflation, with a correlation of 0.66, has historically had the greatest impact on interest rate decisions, followed by the GDP reading, with a correlation of 0.51. It is also worth considering the unemployment rate, which has a correlation of 0.09. This correlation is mainly noticeable during periods of economic crises. However, it should be stressed that interpreting these factors as separate elements requires caution, as they show high intercorrelations. For example, negative GDP readings almost always negatively affect the labour market. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_por%C3%B3wnanie_wska%C5%BAnik%C3%B3w_31.01.png" alt="graph comparison of indicators" /> Source: Fred <h2 id="heading-scroll2">What is the current economic situation in the USA?</h2> From the December FOMC meeting, economic data indicated that US economic growth was slowing, with a continued strong labour market and declining inflation. Job growth had slowed and inflation rates were falling. The financial market reacted by anticipating a softer monetary policy. Expectations of interest rate cuts fell, but monetary policy remained restrictive, with signs of easing. The FOMC maintained interest rates and continued to reduce the Fed's balance sheet, highlighting inflation and slowdown risks. Economic forecasts predicted a slowdown in GDP growth and a decline in PCE inflation to 2% in 2026. Economic growth slowed, but employment remained strong. Monetary policy remained restrictive with further reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, with moderate inflation and employment risks and uncertainty about the economic outlook. Since the December meeting, we learned of two inflation readings. CPI inflation came in gently above forecasts, while PCE inflation was below expectations. In addition, the preliminary reading of the GDP rate showed growth of 3.3%, beating expectations of 2%. The Fed's balance sheet continues to steadily melt down, having already fallen by 13% year-on-year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zmiana_bilansu_Fed_31.01.png" alt="chart change in the Fed's balance sheet" /> Source: Fred <h2 id="heading-scroll3">How are markets pricing the upcoming FOMC meetings?</h2> According to the CME FedWatch tool, which calculates the probability of future interest rates based on futures pricing, we observe that there is a 97.9% probability that interest rates will be held at the current meeting. It also shows that there is an 87% probability of an imminent cut, which could happen as early as May, and that rates could fall by as much as 1.5 percentage points by the end of this year. Hence, the market is currently not pricing in whether interest rate cuts will happen, but rather when they will happen. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_prawdopodobie%C5%84stwa_st%C3%B3p_procentowych_31.01.png" alt="table of interest rate probabilities" /> Source: CME Group, FedWatch <h2 id="heading-scroll4">What impact might today's meeting have on the USD and SPX exchange rate?</h2> It seems that FOMC members believe that consumption levels are still strong enough not to start cutting interest rates yet in March. In the fourth quarter, the US economy grew by 3.3% on an annualised basis, clearly above market expectations. Private consumption grew by 2.8%, almost equalling the previous quarter's performance. The details of the data do not point to a growing risk of recession, but the likelihood of economic growth slowing down due to the depletion of savings accumulated during the pandemic and the full impact of the interest rate hike cycle is increasing with each passing month. For this reason, the May meeting seems a more realistic date for the start of easing. The European Central Bank (ECB), on the other hand, may not start reducing until the summer. The implementation of such a scenario would lead to an increase in the EUR/USD exchange rate. Problems with the continuation of the US dollar's rise confirm the negative outlook for the USD, in which the current rise should only be a correction in a downward trend. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_EURUSD_31.01.png" alt="chart EURUSD" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, EURUSD, Daily The increased expectation of an interest rate cut in the near future may also affect the stock market through falling borrowing costs, which in turn may benefit the value of equities. Therefore, it seems that more important than the interest rate decision itself will be President Jerome Powell's conference. The Fed chief's statements, especially if he announces faster interest rate cuts, could shape the narrative for the entire current quarter. In such a scenario, there is a high probability that this will have a positive impact on the price of the S&P 500 index. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US500_31.01.png" alt="chart US500" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 31 Jan 2024 16:08:00 +0100A new US interest rate decision will be announced today. This will be the first meeting of the year and could prove crucial for markets throughout Q1 this year. The next FOMC meeting will not take place until the end of March. So let's consider what fac...Moon's influence on SPX, gold and EUR/USD investments: myth or actual trend?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/moon-s-influence-on-spx-gold-and-eur-usd-investments-myth-or-actual-trendhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/moon-s-influence-on-spx-gold-and-eur-usd-investments-myth-or-actual-trendWith the ubiquitous advances in technology and data analytics, some investors are beginning to look to nature for answers to questions about financial markets. One such question that has intrigued investors and market observers alike for centuries is the Lunar cycle effects in stock returns, proposed by two University of Michigan professors. The theory is that, for thousands of years, people have believed that the cycles of the moon affect human behaviour, especially during full moons, increasing the risk of mental disorders, violence and other deviations. This phenomenon could not fail to affect financial markets and investors. Let us try to approach this issue analytically and examine the effects of the phenomenon on the major markets.<h3>Spis treści:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What is the impact of the lunar cycle on stock returns?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Do we notice increased volatility on the SPX, gold and EUR/USD during the full moon?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Does it make sense to invest during the full moon in the SPX, gold and EUR/USD?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Conclusions</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What is the impact of the lunar cycle on stock returns?</h2> For centuries, people have believed that the cycles of the moon influence human behaviour, peaking at the full moon, which would supposedly increase the propensity for mental disorders and violence. These beliefs date back to ancient Greece and Rome, and sweep through the Middle Ages to the present day. The moon and its cycles have long been considered important in religious ceremonies and calendars. Research into the influence of the lunar cycle on human behaviour is extensive, with some suggesting a correlation between the phases of the moon and abnormal behaviour. However, in-depth scientific analyses challenge these beliefs, arguing that the effects of the lunar cycle are insignificant or practically non-existent. Research on the effects of the lunar cycle on investment and stock returns has become a focus of interest because there is a widespread belief that abnormal behaviour peaks or increased volatility during the full moon. However, in financial markets, investors' beliefs are often translated into the listing of financial instruments. Therefore, whether or not the full moon influences our emotions, let us examine this phenomenon in the financial markets. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Do we notice increased volatility on the SPX, gold and EUR/USD during the full moon?</h2> To investigate whether we see increased volatility in financial markets during a full moon, we will measure it for three popular instruments: EUR/USD, the S&P 500 index and gold compared to sessions without a full moon since 2000. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wp%C5%82yw_pe%C5%82ni_zmienno%C5%9B%C4%87_ENG_29.01.png" alt="The effect of the lunar cycle versus volatility" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis As can be seen, the average daily variability is practically no different for full days than for non-full days. Hence, it is difficult to draw the conclusion of increased volatility during the full moon. However, did the full moon have an impact on asset returns? <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Does it make sense to invest during the full moon in the SPX, gold and EUR/USD?</h2> Full moons occur on average every 30 calendar days. Therefore, in order to examine the effect of the lunar cycle on the returns of the different asset classes, let us first examine what percentage of investments ended up with a profit after a period of 3 and 15 days. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/skuteczno%C5%9B%C4%87_pe%C5%82ni_ENG_29.01.png" alt="Effectiveness of the lunar cycle effect" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis Regardless of the period and asset class, the effectiveness seems similar whether we would invest during a full moon or any other period. Gold appears to show an advantage in favour of the lunar cycle theory in the 15 days following the full moon. However, the difference is small enough to be considered a statistical error. The average returns for the two periods are as follows. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wp%C5%82yw_pe%C5%82ni_3_dni_ENG_29.01.png" alt="Rate of return Moon cycle effect 3 days" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis The rates of return for the 3 days after the occurrence of the full, although they turned out to be higher for gold and EUR/USD, can be called marginal differences. The average return ranged between 0.02 and 0.17%. In the case of the S&P 500 index, the average return showed no difference whether or not we bought the index during the full moon. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wp%C5%82yw_pe%C5%82ni_15_dni_ENG_29.01.png" alt="Rate of return Moon cycle effect 15 days" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis When extended, the differences show a slight advantage of the moon cycle effect for EUR/USD and gold. However, here too, average returns ranged between 0.02 and 0.65% for all asset classes. However, it is hard to call a strategy that at best delivers an average return of less than 0.2% over the usual period a breakthrough. Such a deviation also seems to be related to some kind of statistical error. <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Conclusions</h2> No matter from which perspective we examine - be it volatility, returns or efficiency - we do not find conclusive evidence of a lunar cycle effect in financial markets. Despite long-standing beliefs about the influence of the phases of the moon on human behaviour, the data do not unequivocally support the existence of this effect. The average daily volatility in financial markets, including for the EUR/USD, the S&P 500 index and gold, is virtually no different on full days than on non-full days. The lack of significant differences indicates the stability of volatility during the full moon. Analysis of returns for different periods after the full moon suggests that these differences are marginal and do not have a significant impact on investment decisions. Even if returns for gold and EUR/USD are slightly higher after a full moon, these differences are minimal and can be considered a statistical error. Therefore, rather this type of method should be treated more with a smile on its face than as a rigid investment strategy.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comMon, 29 Jan 2024 14:17:00 +0100With the ubiquitous advances in technology and data analytics, some investors are beginning to look to nature for answers to questions about financial markets. One such question that has intrigued investors and market observers alike for centuries is th...Next week to watch (29.01-2.02.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-29-01-2-02-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-29-01-2-02-2024The coming week seems to be a key one for the narrative for the entire quarter, as the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate meeting will take place on Wednesday, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell set to speak. One question on most investors' minds is when the first interest rate cut will take place. The answer could significantly affect the outlook for financial markets in the near future. On Thursday, we will receive preliminary inflation readings from the eurozone, and just after that the Bank of England will make a key decision on interest rates. The week will conclude with the publication of data on the US labour market, which has been strong for many months.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (January)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">UK interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">US unemployment rate (January)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 31.01, 19:00 GMT, US interest rate decision</h2> In December 2023. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided, in line with market expectations, to maintain the federal funds rate at 5-5.5%, the fourth such decision in a row. However, following the latest meeting, there appears to have been a significant shift in sentiment regarding future interest rates, as the FOMC suggested a possible cut of a total of 75 basis points in 2024. The Committee agreed that the latest data indicators point to a slowdown in the growth of economic activity, particularly after a robust third quarter. Although employment gains remain moderate, they remain strong and the unemployment rate remains low. It is also worth noting that although inflation has fallen over the past year, it remains at elevated levels. The current analyst forecast indicates no change in interest rates by the FOMC at the upcoming meeting. According to the FedWatch tool, there is as much as an 85.2% probability that a possible cut would take place in May. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_USA_26.01.png" alt="US interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the USD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 1.02, 10:00 GMT, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (January)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. The inflation rate in the euro area was confirmed at 2.9% in December 2023, up from its lowest level in more than two years of 2.4% in November. This increase was mainly due to a slowdown in the rate of decline in energy prices, whose inflation rate was -6.7% in the previous month, compared to -11.5% in November. The core index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, fell to 3.4%, its lowest level since March 2022. The current analyst consensus points to a decline in inflation from the preliminary reading to 2.2%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_strefa_euro_26.01.png" alt="graph inflation eurozone" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 1.02, 12:00 GMT, UK interest rate decision</h2> December 2023. The Bank of England held interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive month, the highest level since the 2008 crisis. Forecasts from November's Monetary Policy Report predicted GDP stability. Inflation was not expected to return to the 2% target until 2025. Current figures show a fall in inflation to 4% in December. It should be added here that the decision to maintain interest rates was not unanimous, with six members supporting maintenance and three supporting an increase to 5.5%. Some see a risk of rising inflation, while others fear excessive policy tightening. However, none of them, compared to the rest of the West, seem to be assuming an interest rate cut in the near term, which could weaken sterling. The current analyst forecast suggests no change in interest rates at the next Bank of England meeting. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_UK_26.01.png" alt="UK interest rates" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for GBP, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on GBP. Impact: GBP <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 2.02, 13:30 GMT, US unemployment rate (January)</h2> Unemployment rates are important for economic analysis and can affect social and economic aspects. A high unemployment rate is associated with lower incomes and increased poverty, while a low unemployment rate promotes increased wages and social welfare. Governments and policymakers monitor the unemployment rate to assess the effectiveness of employment policies and take action to create jobs and support the unemployed. However, it should be remembered that the unemployment rate is one of many tools for assessing the labour market. Analysing other indicators, such as the labour force participation rate or wages, is also essential. The US labour market remains relatively stable, although the unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in December 2023. The first signs of concern come in the context of unemployment rising in 15 states, falling in one and holding steady in 34 others. Despite this, the nationwide unemployment rate remains at 3.7%, still one of the lowest in decades.  Current analyst forecasts suggest that this trend will continue at 3.7%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopa_bezrobocia_USA_26.01.png" alt="US unemployment rate" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</h2> Microsoft (MSFT) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 2.29. Positive earnings surprise in 9 of the last 10 reports. Deadline: Tuesday, 30 January. Alphabet/Google (GOOGL) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 1.6. Positive earnings surprise in 6 of the last 10 reports. Deadline: Tuesday, 30 January. Apple (AAPL) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 2.1. Positive earnings surprise in 9 of the last 10 reports.  Deadline: Thursday, 1 February. Amazon.com (AMZN) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 0.7849. Positive earnings surprise in 7 of the last 10 reports.  Deadline: Thursday, 1 February.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 26 Jan 2024 11:32:00 +0100The coming week seems to be a key one for the narrative for the entire quarter, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate meeting will take place on Wednesday, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell set to speak. One question on most investors'...Is it worth investing in equities after All-Time Highs on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 and DAX 40 indices?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/is-it-worth-investing-in-equities-after-all-time-highs-on-the-spx-nasdaq-100-and-dax-40-indiceshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/is-it-worth-investing-in-equities-after-all-time-highs-on-the-spx-nasdaq-100-and-dax-40-indicesWith financial markets in a dynamic state of flux, it is worth taking a look at the recent performance of two key US indices: The S&P 500 and the technology-based Nasdaq 100. After more than two years, both indices have broken All-Time High . Interestingly, the German DAX 40 index overtook these US giants, reaching its ATH three months earlier. Is it profitable to invest when indices reach historic peaks? How did the markets behave after reaching their ATH? Let's take a closer look at this phenomenon.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">How often does the ATH appear on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 and DAX 40 indices?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Is it profitable to invest when indices are reaching All-Time Highs?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Conclusions</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">How often does the ATH appear on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 and DAX 40 indices?</h2> If we look at the frequency with which the indices have reached their historical peaks, we notice an interesting trend, which is illustrated in the chart below. We will notice that long periods without historical peaks (usually more than 500 sessions, or about 2 years) are followed by long series during which the indices set new peaks. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_dni_bez_ATH_ENG_24.01.png" alt="Days without ATH" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis Looking at the price data for the major indices since 1971, we note that for the S&P 500 index: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In 72.9% of the cases after reaching the ATH within 3 consecutive months, the index was above its peaks.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In 59.5% of the cases after reaching the ATH in the following month, the index remained above its peaks.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In 55.3% of cases the peaks were reached again after one week (5 trading days).</li> </ul> The Nasdaq 100 technology index seems to have a higher positive susceptibility to set new peaks, which: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In 74% of cases after reaching the ATH, it remained above its peaks for 3 consecutive months.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In 65.3% of the cases after reaching the ATH, the index was above its peaks in the following month.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In 55.8% of cases the peaks were reached again after one week (5 trading days).</li> </ul> These proportions seem to almost reverse on the German DAX 40 index, which: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In 67.2% of cases after reaching the ATH, it remained above its peaks for 3 consecutive months.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In 64.2% of cases after reaching the ATH, the index was above its peaks in the following month.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">In 60.7% of cases the peaks were reached again after one week (5 trading days).</li> </ul> <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Is it profitable to invest when indices are reaching All-Time Highs?</h2> If we look at the returns that the S&P 500 index achieved after reaching new highs, we can see that: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">For 3 consecutive months, the expected value (average change) for the index was positive at 2.7%, with an average increase of 6%, and an average decrease of 7.2%.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Over a month, the expected value was also positive and was 0.7%, with an average increase and decrease of 3%.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">During the week, the expected value showed no change in the index.</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US500_24.01.png" alt="chart US500" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Weekly The Nasdaq 100 Index reacted even more favourably after reaching new highs: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">For 3 consecutive months, the expected value for the index was positive at 6.5%, with an average rise and fall of twice that of the S&P 500, at 12%.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Over one month, the expected value was also positive at 2.3%, with an average increase of 6% and a decrease of 5.6%.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Over the week, the expected value showed virtually no change in the index (0.1%).</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US100_24.01.png" alt="chart US100" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US100, Weekly The German DAX 40 index reacted similarly after breaking through the ATH to new highs: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">For 3 consecutive months, the expected value for the index was positive at 5.4%, with an average increase of 12% and an average decrease of 6.9%.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">During the month, the DAX 40 also grew by an average of 1.7%, with an average increase of 6% and an average decrease of 5.6%.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Over the week, the expected value showed a token increase of 0.4%.</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_DE40_24.01.png" alt="chart DE40" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, Weekly These correlations can be illustrated in the chart below, showing the distribution of the returns of these indices over the three-month period following the ATH. What is clear is the strong one-sidedness of the Nasdaq 100 and DAX 40 indices, which repeatedly achieved returns in excess of 20% during this period, which was not the case for the S&P 500. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/Zmiana_indeksu_po_ATH_ENG_24.01.png" alt="chart of the index change after ATH" /> Source: Conotoxia own analysis <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Conclusions</h2> Although one cannot take an index buying strategy after reaching historical peaks for granted, there seems to be a strong correlation that can be particularly positive for the Nasdaq 100 and DAX 40 indices. These indices have shown a tendency to outperform their average annual increases in the 3 months after reaching ATH.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 24 Jan 2024 14:29:00 +0100With financial markets in a dynamic state of flux, it is worth taking a look at the recent performance of two key US indices: The S&P 500 and the technology-based Nasdaq 100. After more than two years, both indices have broken All-Time High (ATH). Inter...Is Tesla stock a good investment? How much success is the market valuing?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/is-tesla-stock-a-good-investment-how-much-success-is-the-market-valuinghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/is-tesla-stock-a-good-investment-how-much-success-is-the-market-valuingElon Musk flew to Poland on Sunday 21 January. The visit is not business-related, but let's focus on his company Tesla, which supplies popular electric cars, including the Cybertruck model, among others. Currently, Tesla's shares are down 30% from their historic highs, while the main US stock index is hitting new highs. For this reason, can Tesla shares be an attractive investment? To assess this, it is useful to focus on the current valuation because, according to Professor Aswath Damodaran's teaching, "keep your eyes on the price" before making investment decisions.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Tesla's current successes</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Market forecasts for Tesla</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Is Tesla stock a good investment?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tesla's current successes</h2> There is no denying the success the company has achieved, with revenues growing by 447% over the past five years, an average annual rate of 40%. However, the latest financial report for Q3 2023 shows that momentum has slowed to 9% per annum. Despite the slowdown, the company's net profit margin is 11%, down from its historical level of 15%. It is worth noting here that the industry average is barely 3.5%. The company's return on equity currently stands at 21.5%, while the industry average is 9.8%. These metrics clearly demonstrate Tesla's strong competitive dominance in the market. The company continues to grow despite the unfavourable macroeconomic situation. This success seems to be driven by high levels of reinvestment. Tesla invests as much as 78.4% of the profits it generates, while at the same time the debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio is only 0.05. Another aspect that demonstrates the security of Tesla's financial situation is the lack of significant problems in settling current liabilities, as the company's strict quick ratio (QR) is 1.18. This means that the company would be able to live on its funds alone for more than a year. We know from the latest report that Tesla is now focusing on reducing costs per vehicle, maximising delivery volumes and investing in AI, among other things. It has also increased computing resources for AI training and expanded the Optimus robot project. The humanoid robot is now being trained with AI to perform simple tasks, which goes hand in hand with improving its hardware. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_przychody_Tesla_22.01.png" alt="Tesla revenue graph" /> Source: Macrotrends <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Market forecasts for Tesla</h2> Regardless of a company's current success, let us remember that investing is about buying assets below their intrinsic value. It is worth recalling the definition of value from a financial perspective in this context. The value of an asset is the present value of all future returns from that asset to the investor. Currently, the expected (discount) rate of return for Tesla is 17.4% and the reinvestment rate has remained at 78.3% over the past four quarters. With these assumptions in mind, Tesla's current projected annual earnings growth rate by the market is as high as 64.8% for the next five years, after which we assume a partial saturation of the electronic car market and a decline in the growth rate to 4.9%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/Tabela_wycena_Tesla_ENG_22.01.png" alt="Tebekla valuation of Tesla" /> Source: Conotoxia’s own analysis <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Is Tesla stock a good investment?</h2> Despite the current tremendous successes, Tesla's average annual revenue growth rate over the past 5 years has been 40%. In order to assess whether the company's current valuation is adequate, we need to consider the probability with which we can forecast average annual earnings growth of around 65% over the next 5 years. We can expect the answer to this question on Wednesday (24.01), when the company's financial results for Q4 2023 will be announced. In assessing the company's success, it is also important to consider the growing competition in the electric car market, particularly from China. For example, Chinese company BYD has produced more electric cars than Tesla in 2023. It is also worth noting that Tesla's November valuation by the aforementioned New York University professor Aswath Damodaran, assumed an intrinsic value of US$180 for the company's shares, about 15% below the current price. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Tesla_22.01.png" alt="Tesla stock chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Tesla, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comMon, 22 Jan 2024 13:38:00 +0100Elon Musk flew to Poland on Sunday 21 January. The visit is not business-related, but let's focus on his company Tesla, which supplies popular electric cars, including the Cybertruck model, among others. Currently, Tesla's shares are down 30% from their...Next week to watch (22-26.01.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-22-26-01-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-22-26-01-2024As earnings season continues, the financial results of technology companies such as Microsoft, Tesla and Intel would be particularly important for investors in the coming week. Depending on the results, these could be both a driving force and a cold shower. For the Canadian dollar and the euro, interest rate decisions, along with statements from the Governors of the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank following the announced decisions, could be key. In addition, let's look out this week for the first US GDP forecasts for Q4 2023. These may confirm or deny the thesis of the end of the US economic slowdown.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Interest rate decision in Canada</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Eurozone interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US preliminary estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) annualised (Q4)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">US core price index (PCE) annualised (December)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 24.01, 15:00 GMT, Interest rate decision in Canada</h2> In December 2023. The Bank of Canada's Economic Council decided to maintain the interest rate at 5%, recognising that previous monetary policy actions have had the intended effect in cooling the economy and easing price pressures. Council members recognise the risks to the inflation outlook, even though policy appears sufficiently restrictive to bring price dynamics to the desired target. Policy makers have therefore maintained their readiness to possibly raise the interest rate. To monitor inflationary pressures, they will focus on the balance of supply and demand, wage growth, prices and inflation expectations. Inflation in Canada currently stands at 3.4 per cent, close to the inflation target, set at between 1 and 3 per cent.  The current analyst forecast is for no change in interest rates by the Bank of Canada at the upcoming meeting. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_kanada_19.01.png" alt="interest rates Canada" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for CAD, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could be bearishly on CAD. Impact: CAD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 25.01, 13:15 GMT, Eurozone interest rate decision</h2> At the December 2023 meeting of the Economic Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), it was decided to keep the ECB's three key interest rates unchanged. This is because inflation in the euro area is expected to gradually decline and gradually move towards the Economic Council's 2% target. At present, inflation is 2.9% and the ECB forecasts that average figures for general inflation will reach 2.7% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, a reduction from last September's forecasts. Earlier interest rate rises continue to impact the economy, reducing demand. Low economic growth is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. However, forecasts assume an improvement due to rising real incomes and an increase in foreign demand. The latest announcement shows that the Council will continue to normalise the balance sheet, planning to reduce the Pandemic Purchase Programme Portfolio (PEPP) by €7.5 billion per month from the second half of 2024.  The current analyst forecast is for the interest rate to remain at 4.5%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_euro_19.01.png" alt="interest rates eurozone" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected interest rate could be bullish for the EUR, while a lower-than-expected interest rate could act bearishly on the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 25.01, 13:30 GMT, US preliminary estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) annualised (Q4)</h2> Gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the total value of goods and services produced in a country for a certain period. GDP is an important indicator of the health of an economy because it gives an overall picture of how well or poorly it is doing. If the GDP growth is higher than expected, the economy is in good shape and growing faster than expected. On the other hand, if the GDP growth is lower than expected, the economy performs weaker than anticipated. Furthermore, if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, it may be considered a technical recession due to contracting economic output. The US economy grew at a rate of 4.9% (k/k) in Q3 2023, which turned out to be, slightly below expectations of 5.3%. This rate of growth implies annual GDP growth of 2.9%, and this represents the fastest growth since Q1 2022. The world's largest economy appears to be returning to its long-term growth rate. The current forecast is for a slowdown in the quarterly growth rate to 1.8%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_USA_19.01.png" alt="graph of US GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Wednesday, 17.01, 10:00 GMT, US core price index (PCE) annualised (December)</h2> PCE inflation, or the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, is a price index that monitors changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is a key measure of inflation, used by the Federal Reserve in the United States to assess the cost of living. The PCE Index is widely used in economic analysis and monetary policy decision-making. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, rose to 3.2% in November 2023, now standing at its lowest level in 20 months. This result came in slightly below expectations. Current forecasts point to core PCE inflation remaining at 3.2%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Inflacja_PCE_USA_19.01.png" alt="PCE inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</h2> Microsoft (MSFT) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 2.29. Positive earnings surprise in 9 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Tuesday, 23 January. Netflix (NFLX) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 2.2. Positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Tuesday, 23 January. Tesla (TSLA) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 0.7236. Positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Wednesday, 24 January. Intel (INTC) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 0.4463 Positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Thursday, 25 January.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 19 Jan 2024 10:56:00 +0100As earnings season continues, the financial results of technology companies such as Microsoft, Tesla and Intel would be particularly important for investors in the coming week. Depending on the results, these could be both a driving force and a cold sho...Where does investment capital flow? Analysis of ETF fund flowshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/where-does-investment-capital-flow-analysis-of-etf-fund-flowshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/where-does-investment-capital-flow-analysis-of-etf-fund-flowsPassive ETFs seem to be gaining in popularity and their market share is steadily increasing. According to data from MORNINGSTAR, they now account for an impressive 39% of assets in the investment product market. Thanks to the high transparency of these types of financial instruments, we can closely observe the inflow and outflow of capital, depending on the specific investment characteristics of the fund in question. Let us therefore analyse where investment capital is currently going and where it is fleeing from.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What are ETFs?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Where did the money flow in 2023?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Where is investment capital currently flowing?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Conclusions</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What are ETFs?</h2> Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a type of investment fund that are listed on an exchange, just like shares. They are characterised by the fact that their investment portfolios are usually structured to replicate a market, sector or industry index. Here are some key features of ETFs: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Listing on an exchange: ETFs are bought and sold on an exchange, meaning that their prices fluctuate throughout the day depending on supply and demand.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Index mapping: Most ETFs are designed to closely track a specific index, such as the S&P 500 or the FTSE 100. This means that their investment portfolios seek to mirror the structure of the index in question.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Diversification: by investing in an ETF, an investor gains access to a diversified portfolio that includes a range of different assets. As a result, the risk of loss in the value of the investment can be dispersed.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Low costs: Compared to some traditional mutual funds, ETFs often have lower management costs. This is partly due to their passive investment strategy, based on mapping an index.</li> </ul> The recent introduction of bitcoin spot ETFs represents the first-ever acceptance of such financial instruments for cryptocurrencies in the United States. Currently, the assets of these funds reach approximately USD 30 billion, representing 1.8% of the total value of the cryptocurrency market. The expectation of these instruments could be one of the main factors driving the growth of cryptocurrencies in late 2023. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Where did the money flow in 2023?</h2> To discuss net flows, we need to briefly understand that it is not the same as asset appreciation. Asset flow data are intended to show changes in investor preferences in the context of a transition between distinctly different investment strategies. For many ETFs, however, there are no continuous adjustments to the amount of invested funds. Therefore, such funds will manage the same capital, the value of which is affected by changes in the market. The largest inflow of new investment funds, amounting to approximately USD 300 billion, was seen in US equity ETFs throughout 2023, followed by fixed income bond ETFs, with inflows of approximately USD 170 billion. The third place on the podium is occupied by the broad international equity market, with inflows of around USD 80 billion. The only asset type that recorded an outflow of total invested capital is commodity-based funds. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_przep%C5%82ywy_ETF_ktywa_17.01.png" alt="chart of flows by asset" /> Source: Fidelity What may seem interesting is that in the last quarter of 2023, we saw the largest amount of invested capital in the equity market. The largest inflow of funds was in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), which received as much as US$46.3 billion. Inflows from ETFs appear to have been one of the key sources of the index as a whole increasing in value by more than 20% in 2023. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_przep%C5%82ywy_ETF_czas_17.01.png" alt="flow chart over time" /> Source: Fidelity <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_VOO_17.01.png" alt="VOO chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, VOO, Daily In bonds, the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) enjoyed the largest inflow of new money, with $21bn in 2023. This ETF gives investors the opportunity to invest in long-term US Treasury bonds, whose biggest driver of growth, or decline, is changes in US interest rates. It seems that the market is increasingly pricing in the first interest rate cuts by the Fed, which would likely lead to increases on the price of this fund. Nevertheless, over the past 2 weeks we have seen temporary capital outflows from this fund. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_TLT_przep%C5%82ywy_17.01.png" alt="TLT flow chart" /> Source: VettaFi <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_TLT-17.01.png" alt="TLT chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, TLT, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Where is investment capital currently flowing?</h2> Undoubtedly, the industry that has attracted the most capital over the past three months is the technology sector, mainly thanks to advances in artificial intelligence, with as much as US$7.6 billion of new money flowing in. Rarely, in second place is the US real estate sector, with an inflow of USD 2.2 billion. It seems that, as with the increase in bond inflows, the market is starting to factor in the expected drop in interest rates in the near future. In contrast, we note the largest capital outflow in the retail sector (down US$2.8 billion). <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/taleba_sektor_przep%C5%82ywy_17.01.png" alt="Table sector flows" /> Source: VettaFi The fund of choice for investors, with the largest amount of artificial intelligence technology-related money flowing into it, is the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ). It provides investors with exposure to the Nasdaq 100 index. So it seems that in the context of a continued bull market in artificial intelligence, this index in particular is likely to gain, becoming one of investors' first choices, as we have seen in the last three weeks with new money flowing into the fund. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_QQQ_przep%C5%82ywy_17.01.png" alt="flow chart QQQ" /> Source: VettaFi <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_QQQ_17.01.png" alt="QQQ chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, QQQ, Daily Analysing the latest capital flows between regions, we note that virtually the entire world is turning its attention to the United States, which received USD 151 billion in new funds. In second place, but with an incomparable value, is the emerging markets ETF region (inflow of USD 6.3 billion), followed by developed markets ETFs (inflow of USD 6 billion). However, despite the positive trend in the global equity market, we see an outflow of US$1.8bn from funds into developed European markets. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_region_przep%C5%82ywy_17.01.png" alt="table region flows" /> Source: VettaFi <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Conclusions</h2> In 2023, investors were most keen to invest in the US equity market, of which ETFs saw the largest inflows of new money. In the last quarter of last year, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) received the most capital inflows, becoming one of the key drivers of the S&P 500 index's rise of more than 20% in 2023. The second asset was US bond ETFs. The iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) gained the most new money in 2023, but we have seen temporary capital outflows from this fund in the last two weeks. On the equity exchanges, the technology sector has attracted the most capital in the last three months, mainly thanks to advances in artificial intelligence. US real estate came second, while the retail sector saw the largest capital outflows. All these flows seem to be pricing in an increasingly strong first decision on interest rate cuts in the US. Globally, investors turned their attention practically only to the United States. ETFs on emerging markets were the second most popular, while ETFs on developed European markets were practically the only ones to record capital outflows in recent months, which may be related to the growing unrest in the state of the economies there.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 17 Jan 2024 14:07:00 +0100Passive ETFs seem to be gaining in popularity and their market share is steadily increasing. According to data from MORNINGSTAR, they now account for an impressive 39% of assets in the investment product market. Thanks to the high transparency of these ...Next week to watch (15-19.01.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-15-19-01-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-15-19-01-2024We have started a new quarter, which means the inauguration of the corporate earnings season. To start with, banks will present data. In addition, in the coming week we can expect the publication of a number of inflation data from Germany, the UK and the euro area. We will also find out whether China's economy will emerge from a period of slowdown.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">German consumer price index (CPI) on a monthly basis (December)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">China's gross domestic product (GDP) annualised (Q4)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (December)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (December)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday, 16.01, 7:00 GMT, German consumer price index (CPI) on a monthly basis (December)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. Preliminary data on consumer price inflation (CPI) in Germany show that it rose to 3.7% year-on-year, up from last month's low of 3.2%. This increase was mainly due to a 4.1% jump in energy prices (compared to 4.5% y-o-y in November). This was the aftermath of base effects related to the so-called December Emergency Assistance programme. Under this programme, the federal government covered the cost of monthly gas and heating allowances for households once in December 2022. At the same time, the rate of growth in food prices eased to 4.5 per cent (compared to 5.5 per cent in November) and service price growth cooled to 3.2 per cent (compared to 3.4 per cent in November). Core inflation, excluding volatile components such as food and energy, fell to 3.5%, reaching its lowest level since July 2022.  The current analyst consensus is for the preliminary annual reading to remain at 3.7% and the month-on-month reading to remain at 0.1%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_CPI_Niemcy_15.01.png" alt="chart of CPI Germany" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 17.01, 2:00 GMT, China's gross domestic product (GDP) annualised (Q4)</h2> Gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the total value of goods and services produced in a country for a certain period. GDP is an important indicator of the health of an economy because it gives an overall picture of how well or poorly it is doing. If the GDP growth is higher than expected, the economy is in good shape and growing faster than expected. On the other hand, if the GDP growth is lower than expected, the economy performs weaker than anticipated. Furthermore, if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, it may be considered a technical recession due to contracting economic output. China's economy grew at a year-on-year rate of 4.9% in Q3 2023, beating market forecasts of 4.4% and raising hopes of reaching the official annual target of around 5% this year. This was the result of continued stimulus from Beijing, which offset the impact of a protracted property crisis and weakened foreign trade. Nonetheless, retail sales expanded in September by the strongest margin in four months, rising for the ninth consecutive month, and industrial production growth remained at its highest level since April 2023. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to a 22-month low of 5%, while fixed investment continued to grow for nine consecutive months in 2023. Earlier data showed that exports fell at a slower pace, partly due to the peak shipping season for Christmas products. Looking at the three quarters of last year, the economy grew by 5.2%. Last year, China's GDP grew by 3%, missing the official target of around 5.5%.  However, current analyst forecasts suggest that the annual target of 5.2% will be met. This would mean an end to the economic slowdown that has affected China due to pandemic restrictions. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_Chin_15.01.png" alt="China's GDP graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the CNY, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the CNY. Impact: CNY <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Wednesday, 17.01, 7:00 GMT, UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (December)</h2> The UK's annual inflation rate fell to 3.9% in November 2023, reaching its lowest level in two years, well short of forecasts of 4.4%. The biggest contributor to this fall was prices in the transport sector ( down 1.5% y-o-y compared to a 0.5% y-o-y increase), mainly due to reductions in car fuel prices and, to a lesser extent, used car prices, as well as maintenance, repairs and airfares. A second key factor appears to be the reduction in economic activity, reflected in stagnant GDP figures. Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also fell to 5.1%, reaching its lowest level since January 2022. The current analyst consensus points to a further decline in inflation to 3.8%. It seems that a deepening of economic weakness could even lead to deflation, as has happened in China, for example. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_CPI_UK_15.01.png" alt="chart UK CPI inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP. Impact: GBP <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Wednesday, 17.01, 10:00 GMT, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (December)</h2> After the official inflation data in Germany, we will receive the final reading of the inflation rate in the euro area. According to preliminary data, price dynamics rose to 2.9% year-on-year in December, slightly below the market consensus of 3%. This was the first increase in inflation since April. It was mainly driven by base effects related to energy prices. These recorded a fall of 6.7% year-on-year (compared with a fall of 11.5% in November). Inflation in the services sector remained at 4.0%. The annual core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also fell to 3.4%, in line with expectations and reaching its lowest level since March 2022. Analysts' expectations suggest inflation forecasts will remain at 2.9% in the official reading. Inflationary concerns seem to have gone away for most economies in the euro area, struggling with the economic slowdown and the threat of recession. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_CPI_strefa)euro_15.01.png" alt="EU CPI inflation graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</h2> Morgan Stanley (MS) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 1.08. Positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Tuesday, 16 January. Goldman Sachs (GS) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 3.8. Positive earnings surprise in 7 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Tuesday, 16 January. Charles Schwab (SCHW) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 0.6428 Positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Wednesday, 17 January.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comMon, 15 Jan 2024 13:15:00 +0100We have started a new quarter, which means the inauguration of the corporate earnings season. To start with, banks will present data. In addition, in the coming week we can expect the publication of a number of inflation data from Germany, the UK and th...Will the copper price rise? What is driving the copper price in the markets?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/will-the-copper-price-rise-what-is-driving-the-copper-price-in-the-marketshttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/will-the-copper-price-rise-what-is-driving-the-copper-price-in-the-marketsModern economies are deeply dependent on a variety of raw materials, of which copper is one of the key ones. This metal has played an irreplaceable role in many areas of life for centuries, from the electrical industry to construction and information technology. Despite this, the price of copper has hardly changed over the course of 2023. We take a closer look at what shapes copper prices, what factors have the greatest impact on the copper market and what can we expect from the price of this metal in 2024?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What does the global copper market look like?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">What drives the price of copper?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">How will the copper price evolve in 2024?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What does the global copper market look like?</h2> Copper is an important metal, widely used in a variety of industries due to its unique chemical properties and conductivity. Unlike many raw materials, it is not ready-to-use, requiring a number of processing steps before it is finally used. In most financial markets, we speak of end-use (End-Use) copper. For this reason, an increase in mining (supply) does not necessarily translate into a sudden and drastic fall in the price of copper on the financial markets. Data from the International Copper Association (ICA) for 2022 shows that the sector with the highest demand for copper is the consumer equipment industry, which includes industrial and commercial electronics, computers and telephones, accounting for an impressive 32% of total demand. In second place is the construction sector, with a focus on the areas of power, grounding, lighting and conduit installation, which accounts for 26.3% of total demand. The third place on the podium is occupied by the infrastructure sector, focusing mainly on utility transmission and distribution networks, with a share of 17.3%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zapotrzebowanie_wed%C5%82ug_sektor%C3%B3w_ENG_12.01.png" alt="copper demand in relation to the sectors" /> Source: Conotoxia, International Copper Association (ICA) Data  The largest demand for copper comes from China, which absorbs as much as 49.1% of global demand for the commodity. In second place is the European Union together with the United Kingdom, responsible for 12.1%, and North America closes the podium, mainly through demand from the United States (8.2%). <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zapotrzebowanie_wed%C5%82ug_kraju_ENG_12.01.png" alt="copper demand by country" /> Source: Conotoxia, International Copper Association (ICA) Data  According to Statista, the largest producers of the resource are Chile, where mines account for 31.8% of global output. Peru ranks second with a share of 11.8%. Third place ex aequo is occupied by China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, both with 9.4% of global output. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_wydobycie_na_kraj_ENG_12.01.png" alt="mining by country" /> Source: Conotoxia, Statista data <h2 id="heading-scroll2">What drives the price of copper?</h2> The price of copper, as with any good, is driven by the relationship between demand and supply. The global copper market has been characterised by many years of stability. We know from ICA data that total supply (mining and recycled recovery) in this market has not exceeded more than 0.5% of demand volumes since 2012. By comparison, in the oil market, the OPEC cartel's forecast for 2024 assumes a shortfall of as much as 2.2% of demand volumes. This would explain the much lower level of volatility in the copper price relative to energy commodities. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_nadprodukcja_ENG_12.01.png" alt="graph copper overproduction" /> Source: Conotoxia, International Copper Association (ICA) Data Final availability of refined copper in the US at the end of September 2023 increased by 10% compared to September 2022. Total stocks on the two largest exchanges (COMEX and London Metal Exchange Ltd.) increased by 34% in one month (September). This suggests a temporary oversupply of this commodity. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zapasy_gie%C5%82dy_12.01.png" alt="stock chart on stock exchanges" /> Source: Copper in September 2023, USGS Despite this, for many years we have seen a gradual decline in copper stocks on the major commodity exchanges, which has had a positive impact on the copper price. It seems that a breach of the 200 000 tonnes level of copper stocks on the exchanges could be one of the first negative signals for the future copper price. For this to happen, the amount of stocks would have to increase by more than 60%, which does not seem possible in the coming months. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zapasy_LME_12.01.png" alt="chart stocks on the LME" /> Source: MacroMicro As the most important players in this market in terms of production are Chile, Peru and China (which together account for 53% of global extraction), and in terms of consumption practically only China with its industrial production (accounting for 49.1% of global demand), it is mainly the situation in these countries that would determine the copper price. Global copper mining and processing remains relatively stable, growing by 2.5% per year since 2012. However, projections of data from Mining Technology indicate that global copper production would increase by 4.8% in 2024. This may explain the temporary increases in stocks on commodity exchanges. After all, most investors in this market are focusing their attention mainly on the situation in the Chinese industry, which is famous for its large infrastructure investments. This sector seems to be recovering again, growing by 6.6% y/y in November 2023 after a temporary stagnation. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_produkcja_przemys%C5%82owa_chiny_12.01.png" alt="chart China's industrial production" /> Source: Tradingeconomics, China industrial production <h2 id="heading-scroll3">How will the copper price evolve in 2024?</h2> For copper to become materially more expensive, there would have to be either a surge in global production, which would return to the long-term growth rate of this market after the pandemic-induced slowdown, or a collapse in production. Both of these scenarios seem unlikely at the moment, as both industrial production in China, which generates as much as 49.1% of global copper demand, has returned to its long-term growth rate and mining is maintaining its growth rate. Therefore, at the moment, there are no significant factors that would suggest a drastic change in the price in 2024. Nevertheless, it could be a one-sided game at the moment, due to potential supply or mining disruptions. As such, we are likely to see gradual increases in the price of this commodity on commodity exchanges, as China's annual industrial production growth rate of 6% on average outpaces the 2.5% increase in extraction. Moreover, a side effect of this could be a further increase in China's share of global copper demand. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XCUUSD_12.01.png" alt="chart XCUUSD" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XCUUSD, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 12 Jan 2024 15:24:00 +0100Modern economies are deeply dependent on a variety of raw materials, of which copper is one of the key ones. This metal has played an irreplaceable role in many areas of life for centuries, from the electrical industry to construction and information te...Democratising the market: How ETFs on bitcoin are changing the financial gamehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/democratising-the-market-how-etfs-on-bitcoin-are-changing-the-financial-gamehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/democratising-the-market-how-etfs-on-bitcoin-are-changing-the-financial-gameThe first bitcoin spot ETF was launched at the end of September last year by Jacobi Asset Management on the European Euronext exchange in Amsterdam. Since then, Europe has become the world leader in this type of investment fund, with as many as 83 already established, with Switzerland and the island of Jersey being the most common venues ex aequo, where 30 funds each have been established. Since then, the bitcoin exchange rate has risen by 72% and these instruments already have more than €4.4 billion under management. However, let us consider what long-term impact the existence of ETFs on cryptocurrencies might have.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">The impact of ETFs on bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges so far</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How will bitcoin ETFs affect the financial world?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">What does the future hold for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">The impact of ETFs on bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges so far</h2> After bitcoin rose 72%, the downward trend in stablecoin volumes in the cryptocurrency market reversed for the first time in about 1.5 years since the first day of trading of the European ETF. The amount of stablecoin, or in other words the amount of money in the cryptocurrency market, has since increased by 7.9%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_kapitalizacja_stablecoin%C3%B3w_10.01.png" alt="chart stablecoin capitalisation" /> Source: Btctools This seems to have been the main factor that translated into a 305% increase in trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges. Nevertheless, we are still 71.8% below the volume from the 2021 bull market here. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_wolumen_obrotu_gie%C5%82dy_krypto_10.01.png" alt="chart of trading volumes on crypto exchanges" /> Source: THE BLOCK However, the US, as the largest financial market, has still not approved the introduction of bitcoin ETFs. This is a particularly important market, where the most popular products on the OTC interdealer market from Grayscale, despite not effectively mirroring cryptocurrency quotes (as the company mentions in the release) and having relatively high management costs (at 2%), generated as much as 67.8% of all cryptocurrency trading in December, according to CCData data. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/Wykres_aktywa_pod_zarz%C4%85dzaniem_10.01.png" alt="chart assets under management" /> Source: CCData According to an analysis by CCData, investment assets (AUM) in the United States grew by 13.49% in December, reaching $36.88 billion. As a result of this growth, this area continues to dominate the market in terms of AUM related to digital assets, holding a share of 75.2%. Canada came in second, reaching AUM of $3.82 billion and gaining a market share of 7.50%. Switzerland, through the introduction of 30 ETFs, increased its AUM by 24.07%, reaching USD 2.24 billion, while Germany saw an increase of 23.36%, reaching AUM of USD 1.45 billion, representing a market share of 2.96%. This confirms the potential for the introduction of ETFs in the US market. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How will bitcoin ETFs affect the financial world?</h2> The whole bitcoin ETF story began at the end of August last year, when US digital asset manager Grayscale Investments won a lawsuit against the SEC after the regulator rejected a request to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF. This happened despite the SEC's previous approval of an ETF for bitcoin futures. The court found that the SEC had not adequately explained why it had approved the listing of the bitcoin futures ETF, but rejected Grayscale's proposed conversion. The SEC must now review Grayscale's application again, along with the other numerous applications for a spot bitcoin ETF currently awaiting approval. This seems particularly important as ETC Group said last November that institutional investors were becoming increasingly interested in its physically-backed cryptocurrency ETF product. Bradley Duke, founder and chief strategist at ETC Group, highlighted that a significant surprise was the lack of institutional investor presence in Europe. In his view, the approval of a spot bitcoin ETF in the US, particularly by firms such as BlackRock, signals the market's readiness for institutional participation. The introduction of bitcoin ETFs seems to have significantly democratised access to this market, going beyond traditional cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets. Currently, however, their size is still small compared to the overall financial and cryptocurrency market. For example, the global market capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market is US$1.78 trillion, meaning that existing investment funds in this sector account for only 2.9% of the total value of cryptocurrencies. Crypto markets are relatively small compared to other financial sectors. For example, according to data from Statista, the equity market capitalisation reaches around US$112 trillion, which translates into a share of all cryptocurrencies at 1.59%. For the current value of digital assets under management, this share is almost zero. Therefore, it is unlikely that cryptocurrencies will dominate global financial markets in the near future. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BTCUSD_10.01.png" alt="BTCUSD chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">What does the future hold for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?</h2> Although the European Economic Area appears to be more open to institutional investment in cryptocurrencies through the introduction of bitcoin ETFs, the introduction of such funds in Europe does not yet appear to be generating significant inflows from institutions. Currently, market expectations are mainly focused on the approval of such instruments in the US, which could potentially influence the long-term development of the cryptocurrency market. However, it is currently difficult to accurately gauge the scale of capital ready to invest in this market, where financial products account for only 2.9% of capitalisation. Nonetheless, a rapid increase in the inflow of new funds from institutions and investors is noted, which may suggest the start of a new bull market. Moreover, given that bitcoin still accounts for as much as 53.7% of this market's capitalisation, the success of this cryptocurrency could have a significant impact on the rest of digital currencies.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 10 Jan 2024 14:44:00 +0100The first bitcoin spot ETF was launched at the end of September last year by Jacobi Asset Management on the European Euronext exchange in Amsterdam. Since then, Europe has become the world leader in this type of investment fund, with as many as 83 alrea...Is AI from Nvidia a good investment? How big success is the market pricing?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/is-ai-from-nvidia-a-good-investment-how-big-success-is-the-market-pricinghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/is-ai-from-nvidia-a-good-investment-how-big-success-is-the-market-pricingNvidia's stock has gained 6.4% after announcing the new GeForce RTX 40 SUPER series of graphics processing units at the CES 2024 technology show. These are expected to improve performance in gaming and generative AI. Examples of AI applications to robots from Boston Dynamics and Collaborative Robots, transforming human-robot interactions, were presented by Nvidia's vice president of robotics. While this information sounds promising, it is worth considering whether Nvidia shares can still be an attractive investment. To assess this, it is important to focus on the current valuation because, according to the teachings of Professor Aswath Damodaran, 'keep your eyes on the price' before making investment decisions.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Nvidia's current successes</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How big a success is the market currently pricing for Nvidia?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Is Nvidia stock a good investment?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Nvidia's current successes</h2> There is no denying the success the company has achieved, which is perfectly illustrated by the record-breaking results from the latest financial report for Q3 2023. Revenue reached an impressive $18.12 billion, up 206% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter. Net profit recorded an increase of more than 12 times year-on-year and 50% from the second quarter. This, in turn, contributed to setting a record net profit margin of 42%, the highest in the company's history, in contrast to the industry average of 17.3%. The company's return on equity (ROE) now stands at an impressive 70.4%, compared to an industry average of 13%. These metrics are clear evidence of Nvidia's strong competitive dominance in the market. This success has occurred despite a decline in the debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio, which has fallen from a relatively safe level of 0.45 to 0.25. The company does not appear to be facing any significant problems in settling its current liabilities, as the company's strict quick ratio (QR) is 3.1. This means that the company would be able to live on its funds alone for around three years. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_przychody_Nbidia_09.01.png" alt="Nvidia revenue graph" /> Source: Macrotrends <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How big a success is the market currently pricing for Nvidia?</h2> Regardless of a company's current success, let us remember that investing is about buying assets below their intrinsic value. It is worth recalling the definition of value from a financial perspective in this context. The value of an asset is the present value of all future returns from that asset to the investor. Currently, the expected (discount) rate of return for Nvidia is 16.32% and the reinvestment rate has remained at 10.07% over the past four quarters. This means that as much as 89.93% of the company's profits are distributed to shareholders in various forms. With these assumptions in mind, Nvidia's current projected annual earnings growth rate through the market is as high as 51.9% for the next five years, after which we assume a partial saturation of the AI market and a decline in the growth rate to 4.86%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tebela_obecna_wycena_Nvidia_ENG_09.01.png" alt="Nvidia current valuation" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Is Nvidia stock a good investment?</h2> Despite the huge success we are currently seeing, Nvidia's average annual earnings growth rate over the past 10 years is 27%. To assess whether the company's current valuation is overvalued, we need to consider how likely we are to forecast average annual earnings growth of around 52% over the next 5 years. Such growth would mean that Nvidia's valuation after 5 years would be around $18 trillion, more than 6 times the current value of the world's largest company Apple. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_Nvidia_09.01.png" alt="Nvidia chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, NVIDIA, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 09 Jan 2024 12:43:00 +0100Nvidia's stock has gained 6.4% after announcing the new GeForce RTX 40 SUPER series of graphics processing units (GPUs) at the CES 2024 technology show. These are expected to improve performance in gaming and generative AI. Examples of AI applications t...Next week to watch (8-12.01.2024)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-8-12-01-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-8-12-01-2024As the new year dawned, the Santa Claus rally in the major US indices was confirmed for investors. So far, we have seen, among other things, the preliminary CPI inflation reading from the Eurozone, which came in below expectations at 2.9 percent. We also received the minutes of the FOMC meeting, which show, among other things: "Recent indicators suggest that growth in economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in Q3 last year. Job growth has slowed since the beginning of the year, but has remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. In addition, members agreed to continue reducing the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities, in line with previously announced plans." In the coming week, investors will be awaiting the latest inflation readings from the United States and GDP data from the United Kingdom.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (December)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">UK monthly gross domestic product (GDP) (November)</a></li> <li><a href="create#heading-scroll3">US producer price index (PPI) on a monthly basis (December)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Thursday, 11.01, 13:30 GMT, US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (December)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. In November 2023, the US annual inflation rate fell to 3.1 percent, reaching its lowest level in five months. This is, however, a small reduction compared to October, when it stood at 3.2 percent. The main factors behind the fall in the inflation rate include energy costs, which fell by 5.4 percent compared to 4.5 percent in October, as well as fuel prices, which recorded a decline of 8.9 percent and heating oil by as much as 24.8 per cent. On the other hand, prices rose fastest in the health-related goods sector (by 5 versus 4.7 percent) and transport services (10.1 versus 9.2 per cent). Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, remained at 4 percent, in line with forecasts. The current forecast for December is for overall inflation to continue to fall to 3 percent and for core inflation to remain at 4 percent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_CPI_USA_05.01.png" alt="chart US CPI inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Friday, 12.01, 13:30 GMT, UK monthly gross domestic product (GDP) (November)</h2> Gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the total value of goods and services produced in a country for a certain period. GDP is an important indicator of the health of an economy because it gives an overall picture of how well or poorly it is doing. If the GDP growth is higher than expected, the economy is in good shape and growing faster than expected. On the other hand, if the GDP growth is lower than expected, the economy performs weaker than anticipated. Furthermore, if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, it may be considered a technical recession due to contracting economic output. In October 2023, the UK economy contracted by 0.3 percent compared to September, reversing the upward trend of the previous two months and departing from market forecasts of no change. The main contributor to the decline was the services sector, which fell by 0.2 percent, particularly in information and communication ( down 1.7 percent), which includes computer software, as well as film and television production. Output in consumer services declined by 0.1 percent. Overall output fell by 0.8 percent, mainly due to significant declines in the manufacturing sector (down 1.1 percent), which includes the production of computers, electronics, optics, machinery and equipment. At the same time, construction output fell by 0.5 percent, partly due to adverse weather conditions. Analysis of the data for the last three months to October shows that UK Gross Domestic Product is stuck in stagnation. On an annual basis, a particular slowdown is evident, as the UK economy grew by just 0.3 percent on an annual basis. The forecast for November is for this slowdown to continue at 0.4 percent year-on-year (0.1 percent m/m). <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_UK_05.01.png" alt="UK GDP graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP. Impact: GBP <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 12.01, 13:30 GMT, US producer price index (PPI) on a monthly basis (December)</h2>   PPI (Producer Price Index) inflation is a statistical measure that tracks changes in the wholesale prices of goods and services over a specified period of time. The PPI measures the percentage change in the average prices that producers receive for their products and services. In short, it refers to inflation from the perspective of producers. The PPI is an important economic indicator because it can provide information on possible changes in production costs, influencing the decisions of businesses and investors. Also, changes in the PPI can influence the evolution of overall inflation in the economy. Price increases in the production phase can move further up the supply chain, which can ultimately affect retail prices and, as a result, consumer inflation. In November 2023, US producer inflation remained unchanged from the previous month, which was lower than the expected increase of 0.1 percent. On an annualised basis, PPI inflation was just 0.9 percent, the lowest in five months. This type of inflation, which historically has greater fluctuations than consumer inflation, has not reached the inflation target set by the Federal Reserve of 2 percent for some time. The current forecast is for a 0.2 percent increase in PPI inflation compared to the previous month. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_PPI_05.01.png" alt="chart PPI inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h3>Stocks to watch</h3> UnitedHealth (UNH) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 5.99. Positive earnings surprise in 10 of the last 10 reports. Deadline: Friday, 12 January. JPMorgan (JPM) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 3.51. Positive earnings surprise in 9 of the last 10 reports. Deadline: Friday, 12 January. Bank of America (BAC) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 0.6233 Positive earnings surprise in 10 of the last 10 reports. Deadline: Friday, 12 January.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 05 Jan 2024 13:51:00 +0100As the new year dawned, the Santa Claus rally in the major US indices was confirmed for investors. So far, we have seen, among other things, the preliminary CPI inflation reading from the Eurozone, which came in below expectations at 2.9 percent. We als...Simple moving averages SMA: how to use them in investments? The mean reversion theoryhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/simple-moving-averages-sma-how-to-use-them-in-investments-the-mean-reversion-theoryhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/simple-moving-averages-sma-how-to-use-them-in-investments-the-mean-reversion-theoryMoving averages are a statistical tool used to analyse stock charts in the investment market. Their main purpose is to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight long-term trends or patterns in the data. We seek to answer the questions: what exactly they are, how often they intersect with the chart on the S&P 500 , Nasdaq 100 and Dax 40 indices, what we could expect from them, and how they could help us make investment decisions according to the mean reversion theory.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What is a simple moving average SMA?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How often do the moving averages intersect on a chart of the SPX, Nasdaq 100 and DAX 40 indices?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">How do we use moving averages in our trading? The mean reversion theory</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What is a simple moving average SMA?</h2> The Simple Moving Average (SMA) is one of the basic technical analysis methods used in financial markets, including stock indices. The SMA calculates the average value of the prices of a given financial instrument over a specific period of time, expressing it as a line on a chart (see below). It is a tool for smoothing short-term price fluctuations and highlighting long-term trends. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US500_04.01.png" alt="SPX chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Daily We will look at three types of moving averages, known as SMA20 (red), SMA50 (green) and SMA100 (blue) on a daily timeframe. The SMA is commonly used to identify trends and support and resistance levels. In technical analysis, traders often compare different SMA periods (for example, the 20-day and 100-day) to get different perspectives on short- and long-term price trends. However, it is worth bearing in mind that the SMA has its limitations and does not always provide complete information about market dynamics, which we will try to approximate. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How often do the moving averages intersect on a chart of the SPX, Nasdaq 100 and DAX 40 indices?</h2> Analysing the price data of the major indices since 1971, we note that in the case of the S&P 500 index, it has remained above the SMA20 moving average for 61.4% of the time, above the SMA50 for 65.1% of the time and above the SMA100 for 69.8% of the time. Thus, for most of the time, irrespective of the moving average adopted, we have seen a short-term, medium-term and long-term uptrend.  In the case of the US technology index Nasdaq 100 for the moving average: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">SMA20 for 61.4% of the time we observed an uptrend;</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">SMA50 for 65.1% of the time we observed an uptrend;</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">SMA100 for 69.8% of the time we observed an uptrend.</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US100_04.01.png" alt="chart US100" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US100, Daily In the case of the German DAX 40 index for the moving average: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">SMA20 for 79.2% of the time we observed an upward trend;</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">SMA50 for 82.8% of the time we observed an upward trend;</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">SMA100 for 84.5% of the time we observed an upward trend.</li> </ul> This would mean that the DAX 40 index had the greatest tendency to remain in an upward trend. It could also be interpreted that this index had the greatest tendency to bounce off the moving averages, suggesting that the latter may be relatively important in the technical analysis of this index, and that their intersection may lead to the greatest relative declines. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_DAX40_04.01.png" alt="chart DE40" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, Daily The short-term moving average SMA20 tended to intersect at the close of the session on average every nine trading sessions for all three indices. The medium-term moving average SMA50 intersected on average every 45 days for the S&P 500 index, 50 days for the Nasdaq 100 and 47 days for the DAX 40. The long-term moving average SMA100 crossed at the close of the session on average every 105 days for the S&P 500 index, the longest for the Nasdaq 100 every 119 days and the most frequent for the DAX 40 every 92 days. Hence, the closing of a given session below or above the average and long-term moving averages appears to be an important indicator for possible changes in stock market trends. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">How do we use moving averages in our trading? The mean reversion theory</h2> The Mean Reversion Theory is a financial concept that describes the tendency of prices or indices to move towards their historical average value over time. According to this theory, if the price of a financial instrument deviates significantly from its average, there is a tendency for it to move back towards that average. This theory is based on the assumption that financial markets and asset prices fluctuate periodically, but over the long term tend to return to some fixed equilibrium point, which could be referred to as the average. This phenomenon applies to various financial assets, such as shares, indices or currencies. This mechanism could be the result of various factors, such as market reactions to news, changes in investor sentiment or simply random market fluctuations. Traders using the theory of reversion to the mean try to identify moments when the price is significantly above or below the historical average, assuming that a return to this point is imminent. How could we use it in trading? To do so, we will use the distribution of the deviation from the mean to identify the historical probability of a given return to the mean. In the case of the S&P 500 index, this is illustrated as follows: <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_rozk%C5%82ad_SPX_04.01.png" alt="SPX distribution diagram" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_SPX_04.01.png" alt="SPX distribution table" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis How to read this data? Let's look at an example of current deviations from the SMA moving averages for the S&P 500 index, which is currently trading 2.1% above the SMA 20 moving average, 5.9% above the SMA 50 and 6.6% above the SMA 100. This means that historically the index has been off by similar or greater amounts in 39.6% of cases for the SMA 20, in just 2.4% of cases for the SMA 50 and 2.5% of cases for the SMA 100. Such data suggests that there is a historical probability of reversal of 60.4% for the SMA 20, as high as 97.6% for the SMA 50 and 97.5% for the SMA 100, respectively. This, in turn, implies that there is a fairly high chance of a return to the mean in the near future, given the past behaviour of the index. For the Nadaq 100 technology index, the distribution of deviations from the moving average is illustrated as follows: <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_rozk%C5%82ad_Nadasq100_04.01.png" alt="Nasdaq 100 distribution chart" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_Nasdaq100_04.01.png" alt="Nasdaq 100 breakdown table" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis The Nasdaq 100 is deviating by 2.8% from the SMA20 moving average. Such a deviation or higher occurred 55.5% of the time (probability of returning to the SMA20 44.5%). 7.3% from the SMA50 (probability of returning to the SMA50, as high as 94.9%) and by 8.9% from the SMA100 (probability of returning to the SMA100 94.7%). For the German DAX40 index, the distribution is as follows: <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_rozk%C5%82ad_DAX40_04.01.png" alt="DAX 40 distribution chart" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/tabela_DAX40_04.01.png" alt="DAX 40 distribution table" /> Source: Conotoxia's own analysis However, it is important to remember that the moving average is constantly changing, so a strategy based solely on catching deviations from it may not have the desired effect. Changing the average over time may affect the effectiveness of such a strategy. Therefore, this tool should be considered as an adjunct to our investment strategy, helping us to better determine the right time to enter the market, which in turn may increase the probability of success. However, it should not be used as a stand-alone indicator in trading.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71.98% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 04 Jan 2024 15:11:00 +0100Moving averages are a statistical tool used to analyse stock charts in the investment market. Their main purpose is to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight long-term trends or patterns in the data. We seek to answer the questions: what exact...The 2024 Outlook download for freehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/research-articles/the-2024-outlook-download-for-freehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/research-articles/the-2024-outlook-download-for-freeDear Investors, we invite you to download the annual report prepared by the Investment Advice Department of Conotoxia Ltd. aimed at active participants in the capital market. The report "Yearly Outlook 2024" presents the main events and trends that, according to the experts of Conotoxia Ltd., will shape the global financial markets this year. Use this knowledge to get an edge when investing in 2024.<div class="text-center mb-32 mb-md-40 mt-64"><img src="https://media.cinkciarz.pl/grafiki/prognozy_invest_2024.png" /></div> <table class="mcnTextBlock" border="0" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tbody class="mcnTextBlockOuter"> <tr> <td class="mcnTextBlockInner" valign="top"> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <div class="text-center mb-32 mb-md-40 mt-64"><a class="btn btn-primary arrow-hidden" href="https://outlook2024-invest.conotoxia.com/">Read full report</a></div> <h5>US economy: What challenges does the world's most prominent economy face, given the unravelling situation, inflationary pressures and the prospect of recession?</h5> In the report, we present our perspective on the US economy. Considerations include high consumer spending, low unemployment, momentum in the technology sector, rising inflation, high interest rates and a possible recession. <h5>European Union under the impact of the war in Ukraine: What is the outlook for EU economic growth in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, elevated inflation and a slowdown?</h5> In Europe, the economic outlook depends on the complicated situation related to the war in Ukraine, which impacts elevated inflation and a slowdown in GDP growth. We will see what challenges this poses for the EU economy and the forecasts for the euro fluctuation. <h5>China and other emerging economies: How is the crisis in China's real estate sector affecting the Chinese economy, and what development scenarios can be envisioned for 2024?</h5> The crisis in China's real estate sector poses a significant challenge to the Chinese economy. We examine what measures are being taken by the Chinese government and what the three possible scenarios for China's GDP in the year 2024 are. <h5>Emerging markets: What are the key challenges and prospects for other emerging markets, given their potential for growth and innovation?</h5> Emerging markets face many challenges and prospects. We make predictions on how they will cope with the issues that lie ahead and the benefits that population growth, technological development and a growing middle class can bring. <h5>Commodities market: What is the outlook for oil, natural gas and gold prices in light of changing market conditions?</h5> An analysis of the commodity market situation includes the decline in oil prices, the balance in the natural gas market, the outlook for gold, as well as factors affecting commodity prices in the coming months. <h5>S&P 500: What are the projected all-time records for the S&P 500 index, and could the Nasdaq 100 index be overvalued?</h5> While the outlook for the S&P 500 Index is for more all-time records, let's consider what's next for the Nasdaq 100 Index - could its growth potential be limited? <h5>US Long-Term Bonds: What are the benefits of investing in US long-term bonds, given the forecasts for lower interest rates?</h5> An analysis of the long-term bond market in the US includes forecasts for lower interest rates. With this in mind, let's see what benefits could arise from investing in this type of asset. <div class="text-center mb-32 mb-md-40 mt-64"><a class="btn btn-primary arrow-hidden" href="https://outlook2024-invest.conotoxia.com/">Read full report</a></div>forex conotoxia.comFri, 29 Dec 2023 13:50:00 +0100Dear Investors, we invite you to download the annual report prepared by the Investment Advice Department of Conotoxia Ltd. (Cinkciarz.pl/Conotoxia investment service) aimed at active participants in the capital market. The report "Yearly Outlook 2024" p...Price gaps and how could we apply them in trading?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/price-gaps-and-how-could-we-apply-them-in-tradinghttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/price-gaps-and-how-could-we-apply-them-in-tradingPrice gaps on charts are areas where there is a lack of price data for a financial instrument within a specific time period. A price gap occurs when the opening price of a given period differs from the closing price of the previous period, creating an empty space on the chart. Price gaps are often analyzed by traders and technical analysts because it is believed that they can provide significant information about market strength, potential price movement directions, and levels of support and resistance. However, one issue regularly arises in investor analyses, namely the "closing" of price gaps, which is nothing more than a return to the price of the last closing. Let's examine how strong this phenomenon is and how it couldn be used in trading strategies.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">How often do price gaps occur on the SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DAX indices?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How often do price gaps "close" on the indices?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">How could we utilize price gaps in our trading?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">How often do price gaps occur on the SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DAX indices?</h2> To examine the phenomenon of price gaps on three key indices, namely S&P 500 (US500), Nasdaq 100 (US100), and DAX 40 (DE40), we have decided not to focus on every type of price gap, for example, one that is 0.01%. Instead, we will look at three cases that could significantly impact our investment when it is at least plus-minus 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_luka_cenowa_20.12.png" alt="price gap chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, H1 To achieve this, we will use data from 1971 for each of the indices. The frequency of price gap occurrences largely depends on the stability of the given financial instrument. Therefore, the most stable among the three main indices is also the largest, namely the S&P 500. A price gap of a minimum size of 0.1% (in both directions) occurred in 18.4% of sessions. For a gap of 0.3%, this frequency dropped to 7.7%, and for a gap of 0.5%, it was only 3.6% of openings. In the case of the technology-focused Nasdaq 100 index, a price gap of a minimum size of 0.1% occurred much more frequently, practically in almost every other session (53.3% of openings). For a gap of at least 0.3%, it occurs in every third session (36.2% of openings), and a gap of 0.5% appears in every fourth session (24.5% of openings). However, the most frequent price gaps were observed in the case of the German DAX 40 index. In its case, a price gap of a minimum size of 0.1% occurred in 4 out of 5 sessions (82.7% of openings). A gap of 0.3% occurs in every other session (57.3% of openings), and a gap of 0.5% appears in every third session (38.6% of openings). <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How often do price gaps "close" on the indices?</h2> "Closing" price gaps refer to nothing more than a return to the previous closing price, as illustrated in the example below. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_domkni%C4%99ta_luka_cenowa_20.12.png" alt="chart price gap closed" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, DE40, H1 From our analysis perspective, it is crucial to understand the timeframe in which price gaps tend to close. Therefore, let's examine how often price gaps close during the same day and week. For a price gap on the S&P 500 index of: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">At least 0.1% we observed that it closed in 44.4% of cases during the same day and in 73% of cases during the week.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">For a gap of at least 0.3%, closing occurred on the same day in 33.1% of cases and during the week in 65% of cases.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">As for a gap of 0.5%, closing occurred on the same day in 27.5% of cases and during the week in 62% of cases.</li> </ul> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wukres_US500_20.12.png" alt="US500 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Daily It's worth emphasizing that the study did not reveal significant differences in terms of the type of gap, whether it was an upward or downward gap. For the Nasdaq 100 index, price gaps of: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">At least 0.1% we observed that they closed in 53.3% of cases on the same day and a remarkable 80% of cases during the week.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">For a gap of at least 0.3%, closing occurred on the same day in 50.4% of cases and during the week in three out of four cases (75%).</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">As for a gap of 0.5%, closing occurred on the same day in 44.5% of cases and during the week in an impressive 71% of cases.</li> </ul> This means that the Nasdaq 100 index shows a significantly greater tendency to "close" price gaps than the S&P 500 index. What might be interesting is for the German DAX 40 index, which most frequently has price gaps, we observed that they have the lowest tendency to close. For a price gap of: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">At least 0.1% closing occurred in only 29.5% of cases on the same day and in 65% of cases during the week.</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">For a gap of at least 0.3%, closing occurred on the same day in one out of five cases (19.4%), and during the week in half of the cases (57%).</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">As for a gap of 0.5%, closing occurred on the same day in only 13.5% of cases and during the week in 50% of cases.</li> </ul> This means that the emergence of a price gap on the DAX 40 index typically effectively signals a change in direction until the end of the day. <h2 id="heading-scroll3">How could we utilize price gaps in our trading?</h2> It turns out that both the frequency of price gaps and their tendency to "close" vary significantly depending on the specific index in which we are investing. Understanding this phenomenon could allow us to better adapt to trading a particular financial instrument, thereby potentially increasing the effectiveness of our investments. For the S&P 500 index, price gaps occur relatively infrequently, as even the smallest gaps (at least 0.1%) are observed only in one out of five sessions. When it comes to larger gaps, for example, of 0.5%, their "closing" happens only in one out of four cases on the same day (27.5%). This could be a significant factor in forecasting the continuation of a trend. In the case of the technological Nasdaq 100 index, we observe the highest effectiveness in "closing" price gaps, occurring from every second to every fourth session. Most frequently, 0.1% size gaps close in as much as 80% of cases during the week. The German DAX 40 index is characterized by the most frequent occurrence of price gaps, happening in four out of five openings. Despite this frequency, this index exhibits the lowest tendency to "close" price gaps (only in 29.5% of cases within a day). This makes it seem most susceptible to trend determination by price gaps. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_US100_20.12.png" alt="US100 chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US100, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 20 Dec 2023 10:34:00 +0100Price gaps on charts are areas where there is a lack of price data for a financial instrument within a specific time period. A price gap occurs when the opening price of a given period differs from the closing price of the previous period, creating an e...Why has the price of palladium risen by 23%?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-has-the-price-of-palladium-risen-by-23https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/why-has-the-price-of-palladium-risen-by-23Last week, palladium was the undisputed leader among the major commodities, gaining 23% after previously falling 65% from its peaks. We are currently seeing a rebound from areas previously seen in late 2018. Let's consider whether this is already the beginning of a reversal in the price trend of this commodity or just a temporary correction?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Why has the price of palladium risen?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Palladium forecast for 2024</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Why has the price of palladium risen?</h2> Following the UK's announcement of new sanctions targeting Russia, UK citizens and companies were banned from 15 December from trading in a wide range of Russian metals, including copper, nickel, aluminium, lead and zinc. However, the sanctions did not extend to palladium, although this was expected. This is particularly important news as Russia accounted for as much as 38.3% of global palladium production in 2023, according to SFA Oxford. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XPDUSD_18.12.png" alt="chart of XPDUSD" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XPDUSD, Weekly To understand how the price of palladium might evolve in the future, let us first look at what the current situation in this market is. The second largest miner of this raw material, practically on a par with Russia, is South Africa, which accounts for 38%, followed by the entire region of North American countries in third place (12.3% of global output). A significant proportion, as much as 41.8% of the volume of world palladium extraction, is recycled, which can have a significant negative impact on the price in the long term. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_poda%C5%BC_palladu_18.12.png" alt="chart Palladium supply" /> Source: Conotoxia, SFA Oxford data As much as 81.2% of global demand for palladium comes from the automotive industry, where it is used primarily in the manufacture of catalytic converters. Another important application area is the electronics industry, where palladium is an important component of capacitors, relays, electrical contacts and other electronic components, generating 16.3% of global demand. The jewellery industry, although accounting for only 2.5% of palladium demand, also plays a key role. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_popyt_palladu_18.12.png" alt="Palladium demand graph" /> Source: Conotoxia, SFA Oxford data The price of palladium appears strongly dependent on the situation in the global automotive industry. An 11% decline in its revenues from 2019 onwards has translated into a reduction in global demand of 8.8% over this period. Despite this, there has been an almost constant shortage in this market since 2016. Forecasts point to a level of 5.9% of global demand in 2023. This means that manufacturers in the current environment are forced to use stockpiles, relying mainly on the recycling of used parts. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_niedobory_palladu_18.12.png" alt="Palladium deficiency graph" /> Source: Conotoxia, SFA Oxford data <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Palladium forecast for 2024</h2> Despite a significant slowdown in automotive sales in Europe, we are experiencing long-term shortages of this raw material. These are partly mitigated by recycling, with the scale of this increasing by 20% since 2016. Previously, between 2010 and 2020, this kind of situation triggered a sharp increase in the price, reaching levels of over US$3 000 per ounce. It seems, therefore, that in 2024, we can expect mainly an increase in the stability of this market and possibly a sustained price above USD 1 000 per ounce. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_historia_palladu_18.12.png" alt="Palladium history chart" /> Source: SFA Oxford   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comMon, 18 Dec 2023 14:58:00 +0100Last week, palladium was the undisputed leader among the major commodities, gaining 23% after previously falling 65% from its peaks. We are currently seeing a rebound from areas previously seen in late 2018. Let's consider whether this is already the be...Next week to watch (18-22.12.2023)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-18-22-12-2023https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-18-22-12-2023It looks like investors can finally start to breathe easy after the latest interest rate decisions by the six major central banks. While each reaffirmed analysts' expectations, the real surprise came with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's words about a planned first interest rate cut next year. This single announcement triggered a storm of US Treasury bond buying, which translated into a drop in the 10-year bond yield from 4.3% to 3.9%. This in turn severely dented the strength of the US dollar. In the coming week, US and UK GDP data could be in the spotlight for investors, potentially determining increased volatility in the markets. In addition, we will also learn the final inflation readings from the Eurozone and the UK.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (November)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (November)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) (Q3).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">UK quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) (Q3).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday, 19.12, 10:00 GMT, Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (November)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. According to preliminary estimates, the euro area's inflation rate fell to 2.4% in November 2023 from a year earlier, reaching its lowest level since July 2021 and surprising analysts' expectations of 2.7%. This means that the European Central Bank has already almost reached its inflation target of 2%. At the same time, the core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 3.6%, the lowest level since April 2022 and below forecasts of 3.9%. The biggest contributor to the fall in inflation was an 11.5% year-on-year reduction in energy costs (compared to an 11.2% fall in October). In addition, inflation also declined in food, alcohol and tobacco (down 6.9%) and non-energy industrial goods (2.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices decreased by 0.5% in November, the largest monthly decline since January 2020. Currently, analysts' consensus is for inflation to remain at 2.4%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_CPI_euro_15.12.png" alt="chart CPI inflation euro area" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 20.12, 7:00 GMT, UK consumer price index (CPI) annualised (November)</h2> In October 2023, the UK inflation rate fell sharply to 4.6%, well below the 6.7% recorded in September. This is a result below market forecasts of 4.8% and the lowest since October 2021. The decline is partly due to the recent reduction in energy prices following the decision to cap household utility charges. This was driven in part by reductions in gas and electricity costs, which recorded their biggest fall since January 1989. Food inflation fell to 10.1% year-on-year, reaching its lowest level since June 2022. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy items, fell to 5.7%, the lowest level since March 2022. The current analyst consensus suggests an expected decline in November inflation to 4.4%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_CPI_UK_15.12.png" alt="chart CPI inflation UK" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP. Impact: GBP <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 21.12, 13:30 GMT, US quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) (Q3).</h2> Gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the total value of goods and services produced in a country for a certain period. GDP is an important indicator of the health of an economy because it gives an overall picture of how well or poorly it is doing. If the GDP growth is higher than expected, the economy is in good shape and growing faster than expected. On the other hand, if the GDP growth is lower than expected, the economy performs weaker than anticipated. Furthermore, if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, it may be considered a technical recession due to contracting economic output. From the estimates, we learned that the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.2% in Q3 2023 compared to the previous quarter, which exceeded forecasts of 5%. This is often mistaken for annualised GDP growth, which was 3% year-on-year.  This was the largest quarterly increase since 2021. The advance was the result of a smaller decline in equipment (-3.5% versus -3.8% in the original estimate) and a 6.9% increase in construction investment (versus 1.6%). Residential investment rose for the first time in almost two years, and much faster than originally forecast (6.2% vs. 3.9% in the initial estimate), and government spending also grew faster (5.5% vs. 4.6%). Consumer spending recorded the largest increase since Q4 2021. Exports grew by 6% (vs. 6.2%) and imports grew slightly slower (5.2% vs. 5.7%). Analysts' consensus is for this pace to be maintained at 5.2% in the final Q3 reading. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_USA_15.12.png" alt="graph of US GDP" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 22.12, 7:00 GMT, UK quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) (Q3).</h2> Gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the total value of goods and services produced in a country for a certain period. GDP is an important indicator of the health of an economy because it gives an overall picture of how well or poorly it is doing. If the GDP growth is higher than expected, the economy is in good shape and growing faster than expected. On the other hand, if the GDP growth is lower than expected, the economy performs weaker than anticipated. Furthermore, if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, it may be considered a technical recession due to contracting economic output. The UK economy has been experiencing a marked slowdown for some time. Estimates show that it recorded a token growth of 0.6% in Q3 this year compared to the same period last year, slightly above forecasts of 0.5%. Several factors contributed to this weak state of the economy. Household spending grew at a faster rate (0.7% versus 0.2% in the second quarter), while there was a slowdown in government spending (0.1% versus 1.3%) and business investment (2.8% versus 9.2%). Over the same period, exports contracted (-6.6% versus an increase of 3.2%), while imports recorded a rebound (0.1% versus a decline of 2.5%). Analysts' forecasts for the final reading now suggest a halt in the economy's growth at 0% year-on-year in Q3 this year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_PKB_UK_15.12.png" alt="GDP chart United Kingdom" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the GBP, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the GBP. Impact: GBP <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</h2> Accenture (ACN) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 3.14. Positive earnings surprise in 10 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Tuesday, 19 December. Micron (MU) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: -1.01. Positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Wednesday, 20 December. Nike (NKE) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 0.834 Positive earnings surprise in 9 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Friday, 21 December.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 15 Dec 2023 14:25:00 +0100It looks like investors can finally start to breathe easy after the latest interest rate decisions by the six major central banks. While each reaffirmed analysts' expectations, the real surprise came with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's words about a plann...WTI oil price could exceed $100 per barrel in 2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/wti-oil-price-could-exceed-100-per-barrel-in-2024https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/wti-oil-price-could-exceed-100-per-barrel-in-2024It has not been known for a long time that the oil market is highly concentrated in just a few production centres, such as OPEC and, with Russia, OPEC+. It is one of the most concentrated markets in the world. However, we must not forget that the price of this commodity, which has fallen by 25% over the past three months, is influenced by a clash between demand and supply. Therefore, let's take a look at the current situation in this market, based on the last three key reports, to understand what the forecast is for the oil market in 2024.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Oil market situation - OPEC report</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US EIA report and international IEA report</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Oil price forecast for 2024</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Oil market situation - OPEC report</h2> Although the United States is the largest single producer of the commodity, accounting for as much as 19.8% of global output, it is no match for the OPEC cartel, which accounts for 33.1% of global output and together with Russia (the so-called OPEC+) reaches as much as 43.6%. This makes the price of oil largely dependent on the cartel's decisions to increase or reduce crude output. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_poda%C5%BC_ropy_14.12.png" alt="oil supply graph" /> Source: OPEC data, Conotoxia The United States also leads the oil market in terms of demand, consuming 19.4% of global production. China is the second consumer with 15.8% and the European Union third with 12.9%. The situation in these economies has the most important impact on global oil demand. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_popyt_ropy_14.12.png" alt="oil demand graph" /> Source: OPEC data, Conotoxia According to the latest OPEC data, which is largely based on future orders and multi-year contracts, analysts forecast that demand in OECD countries will remain virtually unchanged in the coming year. Despite a gentle downward revision of demand forecasts by OPEC analysts, global demand will increase by 2.2% (against a 2.5% y-o-y increase in 2023) due to the growth of India (up 4.1%) and China (up 3.6%) and other Asian countries (up 3.3%).  OPEC+ policies have led to a 2% year-on-year reduction in global oil production in 2023. If the cartel decides not to increase production, at current production levels, the oil deficit could reach an average of 2.2% of the volume of global demand in 2024. In percentage terms, this is similar to the shortfall in 2021, when oil was heavily priced. This means that throughout 2024, the major economies would have to draw on their strategic stocks of the commodity. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_niedobory_ropy_14.12.png" alt="graph of oil market shortages" /> Source: OPEC data <h2 id="heading-scroll2">US EIA report and international IEA report</h2> At the end of 2023, despite the shortages that are occurring, we have seen a significant drop in crude prices, which seems to be due to the influence of two factors. According to EIA data, a historically large increase in US production is now taking place, using as much as 94% of its capacity by the end of 2023. The unblocking of supply chains has meant that, despite production constraints, we have not experienced significant local shortages such as those that occurred during the pandemic. We are now in a situation where we have reached the upper limit of production capacity, and growing expectations of shortages may contribute to the oil price returning to its strong upward trend next year. Nonetheless, the EIA's latest report lowered its forecast for the average price of WTI crude oil for 2024 from USD 93 per barrel to USD 83/b. As we can read in the report, "We forecast that the spot price of Brent crude will increase from an average of USD 78/b in December to an average of USD 84/b in the first half of 2024, thanks in part to the recently announced OPEC+ production cuts." <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_wykorzystanie_mocy_produkcyjnych_USA_14.12.png" alt="graph of oil production capacity utilisation" /> Source: EIA A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that global demand growth in Q4 2023 has been revised down by almost 400 kb/d (0.4% of global demand), with Europe accounting for more than half of the revision, and this slowdown is expected to continue into 2024. Current US oil production growth continues to exceed expectations, exceeding 20 million barrels per day. This, combined with record production from Brazil and Guyana and a surge in Iranian supplies, will increase global production by 1.8 million, to 101.9 million barrels per day this year. Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to continue global production growth into 2024, which could offset the current OPEC cartel cuts. The report indicates that there is currently a noticeable shortage in the oil market, which translates into a decline in stock volumes. Observed global crude stocks declined by 19.6 million barrels in October. Although crude oil reserves remained largely unchanged, total petroleum product stocks fell for the first time in four months, reversing the trend from Q3 this year. When asked why we are seeing a decline in the price of oil in the markets despite the shortages, the report highlights that: "the strength of non-OPEC+ supply has coincided with decelerating global oil demand growth. The extension of OPEC+ production cuts until Q1 2024 has done little to support oil prices. By early December, they were down around $25 per barrel from their September peaks, reaching their lowest level in six months." <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Oil price forecast for 2024</h2> In summary, each report concludes that the current decline in oil prices is the result of declining expectations for next year's demand for the commodity. Nevertheless, each report points out that there are currently shortages in the market, forcing major economies to use their strategic resources. According to OPEC data, the level of shortages even exceeds that of 2021, when there was a dramatic increase in oil commodity prices. The situation where countries are supplementing their shortages from strategic sources cannot last forever, and the decline in demand is mainly seen in OECD countries rather than in the fastest growing economies such as India, China and other Asian countries. Moreover, by the rising expectations of a weakening US dollar in 2024, there is a high probability that we will see a reversal of the negative trend in the oil market, with the potential to exceed USD 100 per barrel. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XTIUSD_14.12.png" alt="XTIUSD chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XTIUSD, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 14 Dec 2023 13:34:00 +0100It has not been known for a long time that the oil market is highly concentrated in just a few production centres, such as OPEC and, with Russia, OPEC+. It is one of the most concentrated markets in the world. However, we must not forget that the price ...What influences the price of gold? Is gold actually increasing in value?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-influences-the-price-of-gold-is-gold-actually-increasing-in-valuehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-influences-the-price-of-gold-is-gold-actually-increasing-in-valueAfter the so-called Nixon shock in October 1971, when we left the gold parity system in favour of a free exchange rate, it is worth noting that the gold exchange rate has since risen by 4461%. Let us consider what factors influence the long-term gold exchange rate. Does an investment in this bullion actually generate additional value or merely maintain it over time?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">How does money printing affect the price of gold?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Does gold only protect against inflation?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Gold price forecasts for 2024</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">How does money printing affect the price of gold?</h2> The amount of money in the economy is measured in various ways. The most basic and intuitive measure is the amount of cash in circulation. However, it does not include entries in bank accounts. When this element is taken into account, the so-called monetary aggregate M1 is formed. However, funds deposited in bank deposits and short-term investments can also be considered as 'dormant money'. As a result, when these values are taken into account, we obtain the M2 aggregate. A huge amount of money has been printed since 1971. The amount of dollars in circulation has increased by 3840%, the M1 aggregate by 7914% and M2 by 2923%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_dodruk_pieni%C4%85dza_USA_13.12.png" alt="chart US money printing" /> Source: Fred While the long-term trend in the quantity of money correlates with the price of gold, an analysis of the relationship of the change in the price of bullion to the value of these measures using the correlation coefficient shows values between 0.03 and 0.05. This means that in the short term, the change in the value of gold is not significantly related to the amount of money added. This may be due to the simple assumption that the quantity of money increases as economies grow. According to the classical school of economics, it is assumed that the addition should be proportional to the amount of goods produced in the economy. Hence, not all new money will be available to purchase gold. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Does gold only protect against inflation?</h2> A better measure than the amount of addition, which takes into account relative values, is the overall increase in prices, i.e. inflation. The two most popular measures of inflation are the CPI and the PCE, which differ in the composition of the basket of consumer goods. Since 1971, cumulative CPI inflation in the United States has been 655% and PCE inflation 485%. If we wanted to measure inflation as the aggregate increase in all prices in the economy, a less popular indicator, the so-called GDP deflator, is used for this purpose, which increased by 475% over this period. This means that gold during this period not only effectively protected our wealth from the declining purchasing power of our currency, but also generated a gain of between 504 and 693% in real terms over inflation. What may seem interesting is that the main US S&P 500 index (excluding dividends) performed very similarly during this period. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_gold_to_SPX_ratio_13.12.png" alt="wykres SPX do złota" /> Source: Macrotrends, S&P 500 to gold ratio It turns out that short-term changes in inflation describe changes in the gold price somewhat better relative to the level of addition. Nevertheless, the correlation measured ranges from 0.16 to 0.19, which further would rather imply a practical lack of dependence of the gold price on the level of inflation. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_USA_13.12.png" alt="graph US inflation" /> Source: Fred <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Gold price forecasts for 2024</h2> From the analysis presented, we can conclude that the price of gold is actually influenced by a simple supply and demand relationship. While gold extraction over time is tightly constrained at 1 to 2% per year, gold demand is highly volatile.  In the three quarters of this year, gold demand fell by 7.5% year-on-year, the price of gold bullion rose by an impressive 12%, surpassing the US$2,000 level. Among the largest buyers of gold are China, Poland and Singapore. China's reserves increased by 12.5% (purchasing 181 tonnes), Poland's by more than 44% (105 tonnes) and Singapore's by 50% (76 tonnes). In the three quarters, as many as 24.8% of central banks increased the share of bullion in their reserves, while only 16.2% reduced. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_zakupy_z%C5%82ota_13.12.png" alt="chart of gold purchases" /> Source: WGC data Demand for gold from central banks may continue. This is evidenced, among other things, by the announcement of the President of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapinski: "We will continue to buy gold. We dream of reaching a 20% share of gold in our reserves'. Currently, the share of gold in NBP reserves is 11.2%. The situation seems to be heading towards a repeat of the mercantilist era, when countries competed to have as much of the precious metal in their treasuries as possible. Why? Among other things, it is to increase the credibility of the state in the eyes of investors, to increase the security of the financial system or to diversify reserves. In the current times, characterised by growing geopolitical unrest related to, among other things, the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Israel and Gaza, gold often becomes a safe haven for investors' capital, which may sustain demand in 2024, and a permanent breakthrough of the USD 2 000 per ounce level seems again only a matter of time. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XAUUSD_13.12.png" alt="XAUUSD chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XAUUSD, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 13 Dec 2023 13:32:00 +0100After the so-called Nixon shock in October 1971, when we left the gold parity system in favour of a free exchange rate, it is worth noting that the gold exchange rate has since risen by 4461%. Let us consider what factors influence the long-term gold ex...The three strongest trends of the past week (11.12.2023)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-three-strongest-trends-of-the-past-week-11-12-2023https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-three-strongest-trends-of-the-past-week-11-12-2023As the stock market saying goes, "the trend is your friend". It indicates that market trends tend to persist according to the so-called momentum strategy. Therefore, let us take a look at the three strongest trends of the past week in the financial markets. We will try to understand the reasons behind these stock market movements in order to explore the possibility of their continuation.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Natural Gas (XNGUSD)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Silver (XAGUSD)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Hang Seng (HK50)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Natural Gas (XNGUSD)</h2> For another week in a row, the price of natural gas on the markets continued its drastic decline, having already reached a reduction of 46.5% since the beginning of the year. In October, the significant level of stored gas in Western European storage facilities was as high as 95.99% of available capacity. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, we are seeing a balance between demand and supply at the end of 2023. Such a situation significantly hinders possible increases in the price of gas, which recorded an 11.6% decline last week. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XNGUSD_11.12.png" alt="chart XNGUSD" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XNGUSD, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Silver (XAGUSD)</h2> Gold's drastic price declines last Monday exceeded a US$100 move in a single session, which has only happened 12 times in history. It also resulted in a decline in silver prices. This is due to the strong interdependence of the two precious metals' prices, with a long-term correlation between the two as high as 0.8. Declining levels of uncertainty and rising expectations of falling inflation have not helped to improve the prices of the two bullions. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XAGUSD%2C11.12.png" alt="chart XAGUSD" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XAGUSD, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Hang Seng (HK50)</h2> Among developed markets, the biggest fall was recorded on the Hong Kong stock exchange, where the main Hang Seng index fell by 2.5% over the past week. Once one of the most attractive stock exchanges in the world for investors, it is now at one-year lows. This state of affairs may be the result of another negative CPI price index reading, which showed deflation of -0.5% year-on-year. Such data suggests that the Chinese economy is already in recession, as manifested by a decline in export growth, reaching just 0.5% year-on-year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_HK50_dzienny_11.12.png" alt="chart HK50" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, HK50, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comMon, 11 Dec 2023 14:41:00 +0100As the stock market saying goes, "the trend is your friend". It indicates that market trends tend to persist according to the so-called momentum strategy. Therefore, let us take a look at the three strongest trends of the past week in the financial mark...Next week to watch (11-15.12.2023)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-11-15-12-2023https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-11-15-12-2023It turns out that Japan's economy, the third most powerful in the world, contracted much more than analysts had predicted - by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. This resulted in a flurry of sell-offs on the USD/JPY exchange rate, which saw a 2.4% decline. The second major piece of news last week was the continuation of the decline in US CPI inflation to 3.2%, down from the previous 3.8%. Looking at the global data, it appears that the economic slowdown in many countries is contributing to a lower rate of price growth. The coming week will be marked by interest rate decisions by six major central banks, including: US, Eurozone, UK or Switzerland.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (November)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Switzerland</a><a href="#heading-scroll3"> interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">UK interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Eurozone interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll6">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday, 12.12, 13:30 GMT, US consumer price index (CPI) annualised (November)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. In October 2023, the US annual inflation rate fell to 3.2% from the 3.7% recorded in August and September. Market forecasts called for a reading of 3.3%. The decline in inflation was mainly due to a 4.5% reduction in energy costs, including gasoline down 5.3%, gas services down 15.8% and heating oil down 21.4%. The CPI remained almost unchanged compared to September. However, the underlying CPI (which excludes fuel and food prices) was up 4% on an annual basis and up 0.2% on a monthly basis, which was below forecasts of 4.1% and 0.3% respectively. The current consensus of TradingEconomics analysts is for a symbolic decline in CPI inflation to 3.1% and for its underlying counterpart to remain at 4%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_inflacja_CPI_USA_08.12.png" alt="chart US CPI inflation" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Wednesday, 13.12, 18:00 GMT, US interest rate decision</h2> "It would be premature to say with confidence that we have reached a sufficiently restrictive stance or to speculate on when policy might ease," - Fed chairman Jerome Powell said at a recent speech. According to the FedWatch tool, which measures the market's valued probability of interest rate changes, with a 58.4% probability the market is pricing the first cut as early as March 2024, and with as much as 86.2% in May. The current analyst forecast is that interest rates will remain unchanged at the next FOMC meeting. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_USA_08.12.png" alt="US interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com Higher-than-expected interest rates could be positive for the USD and negative for the equity market, while lower-than-expected interest rates could be negative for the USD and positive for the equity market. Impact: USD, S&P 500 <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Thursday, 14.12, 8:30 GMT, interest rate decision in Switzerland</h2> At its latest meeting in September, the Swiss National Bank held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.75%. The Bank said that the significant tightening of monetary policy in recent quarters had effectively counteracted ongoing inflationary pressures. The decision interrupted the rate hike campaign that began last June, surprising market expectations of another 25bp hike. Nonetheless, policymakers added that further monetary tightening is not ruled out to ensure price stability in the medium term, and they will keep a close eye on inflation developments in the coming months. Inflation forecasts have been maintained at 2.2% for both 2023 and 2024, while GDP growth in the Swiss economy this year is forecast at around 1%, a slight change from previous forecasts. Switzerland's annual inflation rate remained at 1.6% in August, remaining the lowest since January 2022, while the economy stalled in Q2 this year. Currently, analysts' consensus is for no change in interest rates, which would imply a continuation of the 'wait and see' strategy. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_szwajcarii_08.12.png" alt="interest rate graph Switzerland" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com Higher-than-expected interest rates could be positive for the CHF, while lower-than-expected interest rates could be negative for the CHF. Impact: CHF <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Thursday, 14.12, 12:00 GMT, UK interest rate decision</h2> The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25% for the second consecutive month at its November meeting. Policymakers took this decision given the recent signs of economic slowdown in the UK, evident in the decline in GDP growth to 0.6% year-on-year. At the same time, they are facing the ongoing challenge of CPI inflation, which, although declining, is still at 4.6%. The central bank additionally stressed that monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive for an extended period to steer inflation back towards the 2% target. Policymakers stressed their readiness to implement further tightening measures if needed. Currently, the consensus among analysts is for the Bank of England to maintain the current level of interest rates. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy%20_procentowe_UK_08.12.png" alt="interest rate graph United Kingdom" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com Higher-than-expected interest rates could be positive for the GBP and negative for the equity market, while lower-than-expected interest rates could be negative for the GBP and positive for the equity market. Impact: GBP, UK100 <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Thursday, 14.12, 13:15 GMT, Eurozone interest rate decision</h2> The European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady at its October meeting, a change from a 15-month series of rate hikes. This decision reflects a more cautious stance by policymakers, responding to the gradual easing of price pressures and concerns about an impending recession. Recent GDP readings point to a 0% year-on-year growth rate. Prior to the October meeting, there had been ten interest rate rises since July 2022. As a result, the main refinancing operations rate rose to its highest level in 22 years at 4.5% and the deposit rate reached a record high of 4%. The central bank has stated that it is determined to ensure that CPI inflation returns to its 2% target in the medium term, currently at 2.4%. The ECB now appears to be moving closer to this target. This new stance is a reaction to changing economic conditions and aims to offset inflationary pressures while avoiding the possible effects of an impending recession. Nonetheless, the current consensus of analysts does not yet foresee a change in interest rates in response to the weakening economic situation in the euro area. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_stopy_procentowe_strefa_EU_08.12.png" alt="EU interest rate graph" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com Higher-than-expected interest rates could be positive for the EUR and negative for the equity market, while lower-than-expected interest rates could be negative for the EUR and positive for the equity market. Impact: EUR, DAX <h2 id="heading-scroll6">Stocks to watch</h2> Oracle (ORCL) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 1.32. Positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Monday, 11 December. Adobe (ADBE) announces financial results for the quarter ending December 2023. Forecast EPS: 4.13. Positive earnings surprise in 10 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Wednesday, 13 December. Costco (COST) announces financial results for the quarter ending November 2023. Forecast EPS: 3.4. Positive earnings surprise in 8 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Thursday, 14 December.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 08 Dec 2023 13:44:00 +0100It turns out that Japan's economy, the third most powerful in the world, contracted much more than analysts had predicted - by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. This resulted in a flurry of sell-offs on the USD/JPY exchange rate, which saw a 2.4% decline. The se...How will GTA VI affect Take-Two Interactive's stock price?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/how-will-gta-vi-affect-take-two-interactive-s-stock-pricehttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/how-will-gta-vi-affect-take-two-interactive-s-stock-priceLast night, the first trailer for the latest instalment of Grand Theft Auto VI from Rockstar Games studio saw the light of day. To illustrate the scale of this event in the world of video games, it suffices to mention that the previous instalment of the GTA series has sold a total of 190 million, which puts it in second place in terms of sales in history, just behind Minecraft . Due to the fact that the trailer was published after the close of the US stock market session, the stocks of Take-Two Interactive Software, owner of Rockstar Games, have not yet had time to react to the news. Nevertheless, it is worth considering what impact the latest instalment in the series may have on the value of the company and whether it is currently profitable to invest in Take-Two Interactive Software stocks?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">How have AAA game developer stocks reacted to launch announcements?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How much money will Take-Two Interactive make from the launch of GTA VI?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">How have AAA game developer stocks reacted to launch announcements?</h2> In line with the stock market saying 'buy the rumours, sell the facts', the trailer for the new instalment of GTA is likely to cause rises due to expectations of excellent sales for the game announced in 2025. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see whether similar announcements of AAA titles have translated into noticeable increases in stock value in the past due to expectations of their release. In the case of the announcement of Rockstar Games' previous game, publisher Take-Two Interactive's stocks rose just 10% from the first trailer to launch day, scoring a slide of more than 50% first. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_TakeTwo_zapowied%C5%BA_GTAV_05.12.png" alt="TakeTwo graph of GTA V game announcement" width="1001" height="655" /> Source: Tradingview, Take-Two Interactive, GTA V game announcement Other major events in the games industry were the launches of The Witcher 3: Wild Gon and Cyberpunk 2077 by the CD Projekt Red studio. In this case, indeed, rising expectations contributed to the increase in the value of the company's stocks from the publication of the first official trailer of the game to its debut. In the case of the announcement of the third part of 'The Witcher', CD Projekt's stocks gained 185%, while the announcement of 'Cyberpunk 2077' saw an increase of 126%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_TakeTwo_zapowied%C5%BA_GTAV_05.12.png" alt="CDProject chart announcing The Witcher 3 game" width="1001" height="655" /> Source: Tradingview, CDProjekt, The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt game announcement <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_CDP_zapowied%C5%BA_Cyberpunk2077_05.12.png" alt="chart CDProject game announcement Cyberpunk 2077" width="1000" height="539" /> Source: Tradingview, CDProjekt, Cyberpunk 2077 game announcement As we can see, it is not always the announcements of big titles that generate drastic increases in the value of their developers' stocks. Nevertheless, analysing the history of game development companies, one can see that their stocks more often tend to overestimate profits from upcoming launches than underestimate them. A prime example is CD Projekt, which was trading as high as PLN 450 on the day of the release of the game 'Cyberpunk 2077', and since the 2020 release the stocks have fallen to PLN 108, a 76% drop. <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How much money will Take-Two Interactive make from the launch of GTA VI?</h2> Take-Two Interactive has recorded almost uninterrupted revenue growth since the release of GTA V in 2013. Despite this, the net loss for the last four quarters was a record high, amounting to as much as -27.8% of revenue. This has led to a drastic drop in the company's cash - by 35%. This appears to have been an alternative to the company going into debt, which currently has little debt. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.32, which is average compared to its industry peers of 0.31. The latest instalment of the cult game sold around 13 million copies on its debut day, which translated into revenue of USD 800 million. It is worth noting, however, that the entire budget for the production of that instalment was USD 256 million. If the latest production produced similar results, this would correspond to 14.9% of the revenue for the last 12 months. However, even if we treated this revenue at no cost it would not allow Take-Two to generate a net profit. In addition, the declines in Take-Two Interactive's stocks in after-hours trading, which are already over 5%, are cause for concern. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_TakeTwo_05.12.png" alt="TakeTwo daily chart" width="1001" height="563" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, TakeTwo, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 05 Dec 2023 13:26:00 +0100Last night, the first trailer for the latest instalment of Grand Theft Auto VI from Rockstar Games studio saw the light of day. To illustrate the scale of this event in the world of video games, it suffices to mention that the previous instalment of the...Next week to watch (4-8.12.2023)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-4-8-12-2023https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-4-8-12-2023The biggest surprise of the week appears to be Brazil joining the ranks of OPEC+ countries and the planned cuts in global oil production, which are expected to be as high as 2%. In the week ahead, we will see whether the current oil price cuts will translate into a continuation of the fall in German inflation and Wednesday's Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Particularly important for investors may be Friday's readings on the situation in the US labour market, where the first signs of deterioration may be emerging.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Canada interest rate decision</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Japan's quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) (Q3).</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">German Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (November)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">US unemployment rate (November)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Wednesday, 6.12, 15:00 GMT, Canada interest rate decision</h2> The three main factors on the basis of which central banks make monetary policy decisions are usually:  <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">the unemployment rate, </li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">the rate of price increases (inflation rate),</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">the growth rate of the economy (GDP).</li> </ul> Canada's unemployment rate rose to 5.7 per cent in October 2023, up from 5.5 per cent the previous month. This is the highest level since January 2022, and a reading above market expectations of 5.6%. This result confirms earlier warnings from the Bank of Canada that the aggressive cycle of interest rate hikes has had a material impact on the slowing Canadian economy, which has translated into a cooling labour market. However, it is worth noting that the unemployment rate is still below pre-pandemic levels. Another factor that may prompt the central bank to end the interest rate hike cycle is a faster decline in inflation than previously expected. Canada's annual inflation rate fell to 3.1 per cent in October 2023, down from 3.8 per cent the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 3.2 per cent. This result is lower than the Bank of Canada's forecast. It assumed that inflation would remain close to 3.5% until the middle of next year. Canadian GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q3 2023, the first contraction since Q2 2021, compared with a revised 0.3% increase in the previous period. This result highlights that higher interest rates from the Bank of Canada are having a greater impact on the Canadian economy, retreating from the previously strong growth at the start of the year. Canadian GDP was pressured by a 1.3 per cent decline in exports of goods and services, mainly due to a 25.4 per cent reduction in foreign sales of refined petroleum, while imports of goods and services declined by 0.2 per cent. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/stopy_procentowe_kanada_01.12.png" alt="interest rate chart Canada" width="1001" height="471" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com The Bank's interest rate decision could have an impact on CAD quotes. Impact: CAD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Thursday, 7.12, 23:50 GMT, Japan's quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) (Q3).</h2> Gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the total value of goods and services produced in a country for a certain period. GDP is an important indicator of the health of an economy because it gives an overall picture of how well or poorly it is doing. If the GDP growth is higher than expected, the economy is in good shape and growing faster than expected. On the other hand, if the GDP growth is lower than expected, the economy performs weaker than anticipated. Furthermore, if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, it may be considered a technical recession due to contracting economic output. From the preliminary readings, we know that the Japanese economy contracted by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2023, which was worse than market forecasts of a 0.1% contraction, following a 1.1% increase in Q2. This is the first decline in GDP since Q4 2022, and it happened amid increased cost pressures and mounting global adversity. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, unexpectedly slowed, deviating from the 0.2% growth forecast and following a 0.9% decline in Q2. Meanwhile, capital expenditures surprisingly fell for the second consecutive quarter, compared to the consensus forecast of 0.3% growth and at a much faster pace (-0.6% vs. -0.1% in Q2), while public investment fell for the first time in three quarters (-0.5% vs. 0.3%). As forecast, net trade also had a negative impact on GDP, as exports (0.5% vs. 3.9% in Q2) grew less than imports (1.0% vs. -3.8%). Meanwhile, government spending increased by 0.3% after previously showing no growth. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/PKB_japonii_01.12.png" alt="chart of Japan's GDP" width="1001" height="471" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the JPY, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the JPY. Impact: JPY <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 8.12, 7:00 GMT, German Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (November)</h2> The CPI monitors changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. The CPI is an important indicator because it helps us to understand trends in consumers' purchases and the impact of inflation on their purchasing power. It is calculated on the basis of a basket representing typical consumer spending, covering various categories such as food, housing, transport, etc. Regular measurements of the CPI allow us to track how the prices of these products and services change over time. A positive CPI indicates an overall increase in the prices of goods and services.  On the other hand, a negative CPI means that prices are lower than the year before. It is an important tool for economists and policymakers to help them understand the impact of inflation on the economy and take appropriate action. For consumers, it is information about how their money is losing value in the context of rising or falling prices, allowing them to adjust spending, plan savings and make financial decisions. For the next month in a row we see, a decline in consumer inflation in Germany. In November, it decreased to 3.2% year-on-year, compared to 3.8% in the previous month. This was also a reading below the market consensus of 3.5%. This is the lowest level of inflation since June 2021, mainly due to a sharp decline in the rate of increase in food prices (5.5% vs. 6.1% in October) and a faster pace of reduction in energy prices (-4.5% vs. -3.2%), resulting from the so-called base effect, i.e. a comparison with the historically high levels of 2022. Inflation in services decreased from 3.9 to 3.4% in October. Core inflation, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 3.8% in November, reaching its lowest level since August 2022. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.4%, beating market expectations of 0.2%. The current forecast is for a month-on-month decline in inflation of 0.4%, which would be the first decline in six months. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/CPI_Niemcy_01.12.png" alt="chart CPI inflation Germany" width="1001" height="466" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bullish impact on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Friday, 8.12, 13:30 GMT, US unemployment rate (November)</h2> The unemployment rate is the percentage of people without a job actively seeking employment in the previous month relative to the total number of people of working age or in the labour market. A high unemployment rate means that a large number of people are out of work despite actively seeking employment. A low unemployment rate indicates a stable labour market and greater availability of jobs.  Unemployment rates are important for economic analysis and can affect social and economic aspects. A high unemployment rate is associated with lower incomes and increased poverty, while a low unemployment rate promotes increased wages and social welfare. Governments and policymakers monitor the unemployment rate to assess the effectiveness of employment policies and take action to create jobs and support the unemployed. However, it should be remembered that the unemployment rate is one of many tools for assessing the labour market. Analysing other indicators, such as the labour force participation rate or wages, is also essential. The US unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in October 2023, slightly exceeding market expectations and the previous month's figure of 3.8%. This is the highest unemployment rate since January 2022, with the number of unemployed increasing by 146,000 to reach 6.51 million, while the number of employed fell by 348,000 to 161.2 million. The employment rate declined to 60.2%, down from 60.4% in September, and the labour force participation rate fell to 62.7% from 62.8%. Since the recent lows in April, both the unemployment rate and the jobless rate have increased by 0.5 percentage points and 849,000 respectively. The current forecast is for the unemployment rate to remain at 3.9%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/Stopa_bezrobocia_USA_01.12.png" alt="graph US unemployment rate" width="1001" height="471" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading could have a bearish impact on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bullish for the USD. Impact: USD, US500 <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</h2> AutoZone (AZO) announces financial results for the quarter ending November 2023. Forecast EPS: 31.2. Positive earnings surprise in 10 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Tuesday, 5 December, before the market opens. Brown Forman (BFb) announces financial results for the quarter ending November 2023. Forecast EPS: 0.51. Positive earnings surprise in 5 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Wednesday, 6 December. Broadcom (ABGO) announces financial results for the quarter ending November 2023. Forecast EPS: 10.96. Positive earnings surprise in 10 of last 10 reports. Deadline: Friday, 7 December.   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 01 Dec 2023 15:53:00 +0100The biggest surprise of the week appears to be Brazil joining the ranks of OPEC+ countries and the planned cuts in global oil production, which are expected to be as high as 2%. In the week ahead, we will see whether the current oil price cuts will tran...For the first time in a year and a half, the amount of capital in the cryptocurrency market is growing. What does this mean for BTC?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/for-the-first-time-in-a-year-and-a-half-the-amount-of-capital-in-the-cryptocurrency-market-is-growing-what-does-this-mean-for-btchttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/for-the-first-time-in-a-year-and-a-half-the-amount-of-capital-in-the-cryptocurrency-market-is-growing-what-does-this-mean-for-btcStablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are designed to mirror the value of other assets, such as US dollars, allowing us to store funds without having to withdraw them from digital wallets. We can think of them as a form of cash for investment in the cryptocurrency market. By looking at their number, we are able to assess whether or not more funds are currently available for investment in this market. The number of stablecoins has been continuously decreasing since May 2022, dropping by 33.6%. November, however, is the first month in 1.5 years in which we notice an increase of 3.4%. What could be the consequences of this for the cryptocurrency market as a whole?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What does the increase in stablecoin mean?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Chances of a new bull market in BTC are growing</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What does the increase in stablecoin mean?</h2> Stablecoins are often used as a vehicle for transactions in the cryptocurrency market, as their stable value can help avoid the risks associated with large price fluctuations. They can also act as a means of storing capital, as their value does not fluctuate significantly over a short period of time. Increasing the amount of virtual money in the system can result in the same thing as central bank money printing for the financial system. The previous lack of new cash to spend could lead to a shortage of funds available for new investment. This, in turn, may have caused the market to weaken significantly, as manifested by reduced trading volumes on cryptocurrency exchanges. The current rebound may mark the first influx of new funds into the market in 1.5 years. Historically in the exchange market, an increase in the amount of money in circulation has had a very positive impact on asset valuations. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_kapitalizacja_stablecoin%C3%B3w_30.11.png" alt="Chart stablecoin capitalisation" width="1001" height="585" /> Source: Btctools <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Chances of a new bull market in BTC are growing</h2> The price of bitcoin has risen by as much as 120% since the beginning of the year, surpassing the US$38,000 level. Despite this, we are still 45% short of reaching historic highs. Unlike many other asset classes, it is difficult to really predict the specific levels that bitcoin will reach, although there are many predictions emerging. The current momentum, for the first time in a long time confirmed by the influx of new funds into this market, may increase the chances of the current trend continuing. It is worth recalling that bitcoin currently accounts for 53% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, followed by ethereum with a 17.6% share. The average correlation of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies, as measured by the correlation with bitcoin, is 0.7. This means that without an increase in the value of bitcoin, it is difficult to expect an increase in the value of the other cryptocurrencies. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_BTCUSD%2Cdzienny_30.11.png" alt="BTCUSD daily chart" width="1001" height="563" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 30 Nov 2023 12:33:00 +0100Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are designed to mirror the value of other assets, such as US dollars, allowing us to store funds without having to withdraw them from digital wallets. We can think of them as a form of cash for investment in the cry...The three strongest trends of the last weekhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-three-strongest-trends-of-the-last-weekhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-three-strongest-trends-of-the-last-weekAs the stock market saying goes, "the trend is your friend". It indicates that market trends tend to persist according to the so-called momentum strategy. Therefore, let us take a look at the three strongest trends of the past week in the financial markets. We will try to understand the reasons behind these stock market movements in order to explore the possibility of their continuation.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">Silver (XAGUSD)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">NATGAS (XNGUSD)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Crude oil (XTIUSD)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Silver (XAGUSD)</h2> The break through of the USD 2 000 level in the gold price may have triggered a rally in the silver price. It rose by 5.2% last week, with both bullions showing a long-term high level of dependence on each other. According to data from The Silver Institute, demand for silver in 2023 has fallen by 6% relative to last year, while supply has risen by 2% over the period. The price of an ounce of the metal is currently ahead of key resistance at US$25. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XAGUSD_dzienny_27.11.png" alt="chart silver price" width="999" height="562" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XAGUSD, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll2">NATGAS (XNGUSD)</h2> It appears that this year's winter may be warmer than previously expected, which is now triggering a continuation of the sell-off in natural gas prices, whose price fell 6.1% last week, facing the previously hard-to-beat US$2.8 level. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XNGUSD_dzienny_27.11.png" alt="chart gas price" width="1000" height="563" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XNGUSD, Daily According to S&P Global, we are currently at a point of equilibrium between gas production and consumption. The latest forecast from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts an average price of $3.25/MMBTU for this commodity next year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_popyt_poda%C5%BC_gazu_27.11.png" alt="gas supply and demand graph" width="1000" height="802" /> Source: S&P Global <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Crude oil (XTIUSD)</h2> Oil prices continue to fall, this time by a further 3.7% over the past week, already a 21% loss from this year's peaks. Although OPEC's reports on demand and production figures point to a growing shortage of the commodity, the price falls continue. As early as this Thursday (30.11), OPEC+, the largest oil cartel (responsible for as much as 32.6% of global production), will meet. At this meeting, a decision may be taken to further reduce production, which could be an important factor in reversing the downward trend in crude oil prices. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/wykres_XTIUSD_dzienny_27.11.png" alt="chart oil price" width="999" height="562" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XTIUSD, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comMon, 27 Nov 2023 14:30:00 +0100As the stock market saying goes, "the trend is your friend". It indicates that market trends tend to persist according to the so-called momentum strategy. Therefore, let us take a look at the three strongest trends of the past week in the financial mark...This industry grew the fastest since the beginning of the year. Know its leaders!https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/this-industry-grew-the-fastest-since-the-beginning-of-the-year-know-its-leadershttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/this-industry-grew-the-fastest-since-the-beginning-of-the-year-know-its-leadersThe current year, even though it is not yet over, can be considered a successful one in the US stock market. The main S&P 500 index rose by 18.7%. The performance of individual sectors, however, has varied. By far the best performer, with an average return of as much as 78% since the beginning of the year, is the uranium mining and processing companies sector. Let's take a look at the most important players in this area.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What does the uranium market look like?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Cameco Corp.</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Energy Fuels Inc</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What does the uranium market look like?</h2> The price of uranium has risen by 64% since the beginning of the year, reaching its highest level in 15 years. This increase is mainly caused by a decline in uranium mining and plans to increase uranium consumption by developed countries seeking energy independence. This phenomenon is the result of extending the life of the existing fleet of nuclear reactors and the consideration of building new plants, which in turn is due to the sudden increase in energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_1_23.11.png" alt="graph uranium price" width="1205" height="584" /> Source: Tradingeconomics According to the World Nuclear Association, there are currently 436 reactors in operation with a total capacity of around 390 GWe. Annually, they require about 74 000 tonnes of uranium oxide concentrate containing about 62 500 tonnes of uranium. Despite the gradual increase in reactor capacity and more efficient operation, demand for nuclear fuel is being held back by increasing fuel efficiency. Uranium prices fluctuate, but demand for this energy source is relatively predictable. Demand forecasts depend mainly on the installed capacity of reactors and the ability to maintain their high efficiency, the amount of which has remained virtually unchanged since the 2011 Fukushima disaster. According to IEA data, this source accounts for 10% of global energy production. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_2_23.11.png" alt="graph nuclear energy production" width="1200" height="571" /> Source: World Nuclear Association Currently, the United States boasts the largest number of reactors, with as many as 93, followed by France with 56 reactors, and closing the podium is China with 55 reactors. According to the World Nuclear Association's 2021 Nuclear Fuels Report, demand for uranium is forecast to increase over the next ten years. A 27% increase in uranium demand is projected by 2030, and a 38% increase is also forecast for the next decade. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_3_23.11.png" alt="graphic number of nuclear reactors" width="1100" height="580" /> Source: Statista However, the uranium market has seen severe shortages since the 1990s due to fluctuating production levels. In 2022, uranium demand was around 60 000 tonnes, while production was around 49 000 tonnes. This means that countries are forced to draw on their own reserves of this raw material every year. In 2022, Kazakhstan accounted for the largest share of global uranium mining (43% of global supply), followed by Canada (15%) and Namibia (11%). Current market conditions appear to be favourable for further price increases for this commodity in the long term. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_4_23.11.png" alt="graph uranium mining" width="1200" height="757" /> Source: World Nuclear Association This year's robust revenue growth of uranium mining companies has contributed to stock market rises, even surpassing this year's AI boom. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_5_23.11.png" alt="graph of industry returns" width="1089" height="499" /> Source: Finviz <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Cameco Corp.</h2> One of the biggest players in the uranium mining industry is Canada's Cameco Corporation. Its key business areas include uranium mining, production and sales. In addition, Cameco is involved in various stages of the nuclear fuel cycle, covering its reprocessing and production, including MOX (Mixed Oxide) fuels. The company provides its products and services to nuclear power plants around the world. Cameco is also involved in projects to develop nuclear technology and promote nuclear energy as a source of electricity, giving it a key role in the global nuclear industry. The company currently holds a 12% share of the uranium market. The increase in uranium prices contributed significantly to the strong revenue growth in Q3 Br, when a 44% year-on-year increase was recorded. Cameco Corp.'s share prices have impressively increased by 98% since the beginning of the year. In terms of the company's financial position, it is worth noting that its debt levels are virtually zero, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16. The company also has a high level of liquidity, expressed in a quick ratio of 3.31, meaning that the company would be able to sustain itself for approximately three years on liquid assets alone. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_6_23.11.png" alt="Cameco Corp share chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, CamecoCorp, Weekly <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Energy Fuels Inc</h2> The latter company is the US-based Energy Fuels Inc. which specialises in uranium mining, nuclear fuel production, nuclear reprocessing and nuclear waste recycling. It stands out in the market for having the highest return on equity (ROE) of 32% (compared to 4.9% for Cameco Corp.), no debt and a very high level of liquidity (quick ratio of 22.5). This means that in the event of an increase in uranium prices, the company may have the greatest potential to increase earnings from its operations. The increase in uranium prices contributed to the company's revenue growth of as much as 226% year-on-year. It has also seen its share price rise by 35% year-to-date. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_7_23.11.png" alt="Energy Fuels Inc. share chart" /> Source: Tradingview   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 24 Nov 2023 10:46:00 +0100The current year, even though it is not yet over, can be considered a successful one in the US stock market. The main S&P 500 index rose by 18.7%. The performance of individual sectors, however, has varied. By far the best performer, with an average ret...Next week to watch (27.11 – 01.12.)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-27-11-01-12https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-27-11-01-12After the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, next week will see the release of some important macroeconomic data, such as US GDP growth for the third quarter, which may confirm the estimated 4.9% increase. Furthermore, the New Home Sales, together with the US CB Consumer Confidence Index report, may provide us with the newest insight into consumer confidence levels in the US. Meanwhile, the preliminary data for the Eurozone's inflation level in November will be coming out later next week. <h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US New Home Sales (October)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">US CB Consumer Confidence (November)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ (Q3)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (November preliminary)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Monday 27.10. 15:00 GMT, US New Home Sales (October)</h2> New Home Sales is an economic indicator published by the US Census Bureau that measures the number of new home sales, taking into account any deposits paid or contracts signed on single-family homes built in the current or previous year. A high number would indicate that the housing activity may be high, leading to strong economic growth. Although a lagging indicator, new home sales are closely watched by investors as they represent consumer demand driven by factors like interest rates, unemployment, and household income. New Home Sales are reported in absolute terms and as a percentage change from the previous month. In addition, new home sales are usually released before Existing Home Sales, as the two data are closely correlated. Sales of newly built single-family homes in the United States showed a notable increase, rising 12.3% to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 759 thousand in September 2023. This was a significant rebound from the previous month's revised figure of 676 thousand and exceeded the market consensus of 680 thousand. This robust performance represents the highest level of new home sales since February 2022. The consensus forecast for the upcoming report is for 730 thousand, which would represent a slight decline from the previous month's surge.  The heightened demand for new housing and homebuilding might be attributed to a shortage of previously owned houses in the market. Sales exhibited growth across all regions, with the South leading at a 14.6% increase to 456 thousand, followed by the West with a 7.5% rise to 187 thousand, the Midwest with a 4.7% uptick to 67 thousand, and the Northeast recording a substantial 22.5% increase to 49 thousand. The median price of newly sold houses stood at 418,800 USD, while the average sales price was 503,900 USD. In comparison to the figures from a year ago, this reflects a change from 477,700 USD to 418,800 USD for the median price and from 530,100 USD to 503,900 USD for the average price. As of the end of September, the inventory revealed that 435 thousand houses were still available for sale. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_1_24.11.png" alt="US new home sales (October)" width="1201" height="538" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bullish effect on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Tuesday, 28.11. 15:00 GMT, US CB Consumer Confidence (November)</h2> The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) measures consumer confidence in the economy. It is an indicator that can predict future consumer spending, a key factor in overall economic activity. Higher values indicate greater consumer optimism. The CCI is measured based on the level of confidence in 1985, which was set at 100 points. An index above 100 points indicates a higher confidence level than in 1985. Conversely, a value below 100 points means a lower confidence level than in 1985. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index experienced a moderate decline in October, dropping to 102.6 (1985=100) from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September. The overall trend reveals a third consecutive month of decline in consumer confidence. Within this index, the Present Situation Index, which gauges consumers' evaluations of current business and labour market conditions, decreased to 143.1 (1985=100) from 146.2. Additionally, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labour market conditions, saw a slight dip to 75.6 (1985=100) in October, following a decline to 76.4 in September. Notably, the Expectations Index remains below 80, a historical threshold indicating a potential recession within the following year. Consumer concerns about an impending recession persist at elevated levels, aligning with an anticipation of a short and shallow economic contraction in the first half of 2024. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_2_24.11.png" alt="US CB consumer confidence index (November)" width="1202" height="567" /> Source: www.conference-board.org/ A higher-than-expected reading may have a bullish effect on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Wednesday 29.11. 13:30 GMT, US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ (Q3)</h2> Gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the total value of goods and services produced in a country for a certain period. GDP is an important indicator of the health of an economy because it gives an overall picture of how well or poorly it is doing. If the GDP growth is higher than expected, the economy is in good shape and growing faster than expected. On the other hand, if the GDP growth is lower than expected, the economy performs weaker than anticipated. Furthermore, if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, it may be considered a technical recession due to contracting economic output. According to an initial estimate, the US economy demonstrated robust growth, expanding at an annualised rate of 4.9% in Q3 2023, marking the highest growth rate since the final quarter of 2021. This also exceeded market expectations of 4.3% and represented a significant increase from the 2.1% expansion observed in Q2. Key drivers of this economic expansion included a notable 4% increase in consumer spending, the most substantial uptick since Q4 2021 (compared to 0.8% in Q2 2023). This surge in consumer spending was led by expenditures on housing and utilities, healthcare, financial services and insurance, food services and accommodation, as well as non-durable goods, particularly prescription drugs and recreational goods and vehicles. The quarter also saw a notable rebound in exports, which rose by 6.2% after a 9.3% fall in the second quarter, while imports rose by 5.7%, compared with a fall of -7.6% previously. Private inventories made a significant contribution to growth, adding 1.32 percentage points - the first positive contribution in three quarters. In addition, residential investment turned positive, growing at a rate of 3.9% (up from -2.2%) for the first time in almost two years, and government spending accelerated (up from 3.3% to 4.6%). In contrast, non-residential investment contracted for the first time in two years, falling by 0.1% (compared with growth of 7.4%), mainly due to a fall in equipment (3.8% compared with 7.7%) and a slowdown in structures (1.6% compared with 16.1%). <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_3_24.11.png" alt="US gross domestic product (GDP) by quarter (Q3)." width="1201" height="538" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bullish effect on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Thursday 30.11. 10:00 GMT, Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY (November preliminary)</h2> The CPI index measures changes in the prices of consumer goods and services. It covers different types of products, such as food, fuel, transportation services, cosmetics, household goods, clothing, and many others. The purpose of the CPI index is to measure the increase or decrease in the cost of living for consumers. As the CPI index rises, consumers' purchasing costs increase, affecting their money's purchasing power. The CPI index is used to monitor inflation or the overall rise in prices in the economy. It allows us to assess whether prices are rising too fast or too slowly and to determine what economic policy measures should be taken to offset the adverse effects of inflation. The inflation rate in the Eurozone for October 2023 was officially verified at 2.9% year-on-year. While this represents the lowest figure since July 2021, it still exceeds the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%. The decline in energy prices and a deceleration in food inflation were the primary factors contributing to this outcome. Concurrently, the core inflation rate, which excludes the influence of volatile food and energy prices, also decreased to 4.2% in October, reaching its lowest level since July 2022. Energy costs recorded a significant fall of 11.2%, a marked contrast to the -4.6% recorded in September. In addition, inflation rates eased in categories such as food, alcohol and tobacco (7.4% compared with 8.8%) and non-energy industrial goods (3.5% compared with 4.1%). Inflation in services remained relatively stable at 4.6%, compared with 4.7% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices exhibited a marginal increase of 0.1% in October, following a 0.3% rise in September. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_4_24.11.png" alt="Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) annualised (preliminary data for November)" width="1201" height="551" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com If the reading is higher than expected, inflation is higher, possibly favouring a fall in the EUR. Meanwhile, it may be also a stimulus for the ECB to raise interest rates and reduce the money supply, causing an increase in the EUR. If the reading is lower than expected, it may give the ECB an argument to stop its policy of raising interest rates. Impact: EUR, STOXX, DAX and other indices <h2 id="heading-scroll5">Stocks to watch</h2> Hewlett Packard (HPE) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 10/2023. Forecast EPS: 0.4969. Positive earnings surprise in 8 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Tuesday, November 28, after the market closes.  Dollar Tree (DLTR) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 10/2023. Forecast EPS: 7.55. Positive earnings surprise in 8 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Wednesday, November 29, before the market opens.  Marvell (MRVL) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 10/2023. Forecast EPS: 0.4006. Positive earnings surprise in 8 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Friday, December 1.    Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 24 Nov 2023 10:25:00 +0100After the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, next week will see the release of some important macroeconomic data, such as US GDP growth for the third quarter, which may confirm the estimated 4.9% increase. Furthermore, the New Home Sales, together with the...What impact will the punishment of the Binance exchange have on the cryptocurrency market?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-impact-will-the-punishment-of-the-binance-exchange-have-on-the-cryptocurrency-markethttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/what-impact-will-the-punishment-of-the-binance-exchange-have-on-the-cryptocurrency-marketYesterday , Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance, resigned from his position and accepted his guilt in a case of negligent failure to protect against money laundering in the United States. This came after federal prosecutors filed charges against the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange. The company also pleaded guilty to criminal issues relating to money laundering and violating international financial sanctions. It agreed to pay more than $4.3 billion in penalties, US officials announced on Tuesday. The consequence, according to Nansen, was an outflow of more than US$1bn of its US$65bn in funds. Let's take a look at what consequences this has had on the cryptocurrency market, and how will it affect its future?<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What is the agreement about?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How has the situation affected BTC, BNB and the cryptocurrency market?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">What does the future hold?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What is the agreement about?</h2> According to court documents, Binance's alleged abuses took place from at least August 2017 until October 2022. During this period, the exchange may have failed to report well over 100,000 suspicious transactions related to, among other things, child sexual abuse, massive hacking, drug trafficking and groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS. As a result of the current agreement, Binance becomes one of the entities to incur one of the largest corporate fines in US history. The agreement also settled a case brought by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which accused Binance and Zhao of operating illegally in the United States. According to the CFTC's civil indictment, the majority of the group's reported trading and profits came from "extensive solicitation and access" to US customers, contradicting the exchange's claims. In June, the US Securities and Exchange Commission filed 13 civil charges, accusing Binance of violations including mixing billions of dollars of customers with a separate trading company owned by its CEO and operating an unregistered exchange and clearing agencies. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was not named in the announced settlements. As the exchange itself emphasises in the announcement: "We take our responsibility as a custodian very seriously and maintain 1:1 backing for every user asset. This means that users can withdraw 100 percent of their assets from the platform at any time. Of note, in our resolutions with the U.S. agencies they: <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">do not allege that Binance misappropriated any user funds, and</li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">do not allege that Binance engaged in any market manipulation."</li> </ul> However, according to Nansen's data, more than US$1 billion flowed off the exchange in a single day, down 1.5% in total funds. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_1_22.11.png" alt="Graphic of Binance exchange assets" /> Source: Nansen <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How has the situation affected BTC, BNB and the cryptocurrency market?</h2> After the momentary shock of the agreement announcement, there is no significant impact on most assets. The cryptocurrency that seems to have suffered the most, losing more than 9%, is the BNB token from Binance. Of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, as many as 98 have seen a noticeable rebound over the past 24 hours. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_2_22.11.png" alt="chart BNBUSD" /> Source: Contoxia MT5, BNBUSD, Daily Bitcoin, meanwhile, fell 4% before rebounding and remaining with a loss of 1.3%. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_3_22.11.png" alt="Chart BTCUSD" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BTCUSD, Daily One of the cryptocurrencies that has gained the most since then is syntetix. The price of this asset has risen by 10.9% since the announcement, while maintaining a robust growth rate of 156% since the beginning of the year. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_4_22.11.png" alt="Chart SNXUSD" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, SNXUSD, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">What does the future hold?</h2> It seems that the current perturbations can be seen more as a temporary confusion than a crash in the cryptocurrency world. The months-long disputes with regulators may be largely behind us. This, in turn, may accelerate the adaptation of cryptocurrencies to the economy. The Binance exchange itself has pledged to increase security measures, including the appointment of a new CEO, who previously served as CEO at the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSA) and was director of regulation for the Singapore Exchange (SGX). This, combined with the likely imminent approval of an ETF based on bitcoin quotes, could positively impact the market in the long term. However, investors may still be concerned about the unfinished business with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comWed, 22 Nov 2023 14:59:00 +0100Yesterday (21.11), Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance, resigned from his position and accepted his guilt in a case of negligent failure to protect against money laundering in the United States. This came after federal prosecutors filed charges against the w...The 5 strongest trends of the last weekhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-5-strongest-trends-of-the-last-weekhttps://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/the-5-strongest-trends-of-the-last-weekAs the stock market saying goes, "the trend is your friend". It indicates that trends in the market tend to persist according to the so-called momentum strategy. Therefore, let us take a look at the five strongest trends of the past week in the financial markets. We will try to understand the reasons behind these stock market movements in order to explore the possibility of their continuation.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">SYNTHETIX (SNXUSD)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">Pallad (XDPUSD)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Natgas (XNGUSD)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll5">S&P 500 (US500)</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">SYNTHETIX (SNXUSD)</h2> Growing expectations for the acceptance of the first ETF for the bitcoin spot seem to be affecting the entire cryptocurrency market. Among them, synthetix has been growing the fastest recently - up 36% over the past week. The main goal of the synthetix cryptocurrency is to allow users to invest in various assets - currencies, commodities or stocks - by creating synthetic representations of them on the blockchain. Therefore, the cryptocurrency's users are often financial institutions that provide such services through it and whose increased inflows are expected with the implementation of the ETF. The increases led to a break through the one-year resistance at USD 3.38. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_1_21.11.png" alt="chart of SNXUSD" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, SNXUSD, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll2">ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)</h2> There is increasing pressure for earlier interest rate cuts relative to earlier expectations. The low interest rate environment significantly favours growth-oriented companies due to easier access to cheap funds. This may have been the reason for the ARK Innovation ETF from the famous Cathie Wood rising by 9.5%. It should be mentioned that the fund's price is currently at a key 2-year support at USD 45. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_2_21.11.png" alt="Ark innovation ETF chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, ARKK, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Pallad (XDPUSD)</h2> The price of palladium has risen by 9.4%, surpassing the US$1,000 level, after an almost continuous decline from the US$3,000 level over the past year. According to SFA Oxford, the metal is mainly used in the automotive industry (81.2% of demand), manufacturing (16.3%) and jewellery (2.5%). The metal has been struggling for some time with a lack of growth in demand despite a continued increase in the amount of recycled palladium sourced (up 4% year-on-year), which has led to an overall decline in demand of 2.1% year-on-year. Therefore, is the current increase only a short-term rebound or will this trend continue? <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_3_21.11.png" alt="Palladium price chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XPDUSD, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Natgas (XNGUSD)</h2> Another commodity that has seen the biggest downward trend in the past week is gas losing 9.4% in value. According to S&P Global data, we are currently at a point of equilibrium between gas production and consumption. The latest forecast from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts an average price of $3.25/MMBTU for this commodity next year. However, it should be noted that the heating season has not yet fully started and any shortfall will depend on the weather conditions this winter. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_4_21.11.png" alt="natural gas supply and demand graph" width="842" height="675" /> Source: S&P Global <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_5_21.11.png" alt="graph natural gas price" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, XNGUSD, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll5">S&P 500 (US500)</h2> The past week proved exceptionally positive for the general stock market.The main S&P 500 index recorded an increase of 2.52%.Interestingly, it even outperformed the Nasdaq 100 technology index, which ended the week with a gain of 2%. This is now more than 19% year-to-date growth on the S&P 500 index. The momentum started with Tuesday's US CPI inflation data, which came in below expectations. It is now just 1.4% short of reaching historic highs on the index. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_6_21.11.png" alt="chart of the SPX index" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, US500, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comTue, 21 Nov 2023 11:26:00 +0100As the stock market saying goes, "the trend is your friend". It indicates that trends in the market tend to persist according to the so-called momentum strategy. Therefore, let us take a look at the five strongest trends of the past week in the financia...Next week to watch (20 – 24.11.)https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-20-24-11https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/next-week-to-watch/next-week-to-watch-20-24-11Due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, the coming week will be a shorter one for US markets - closed on Thursday and closed at 13:00 on Friday. Nevertheless, among other US macroeconomic data, Existing Home Sales and Composite PMI will be released, in addition to German GDP growth data, which may clarify whether the EU's largest economy continued to contract in Q3 2023. <h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">US Existing Home Sales (October)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">Germany Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ (Q3)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">US Composite Purchasing Managers Index PMI (November)</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">Tuesday 21.11. 15:00 GMT, US Existing Home Sales (October)</h2> Existing Home Sales is an economic indicator published by the National Association of Realtors that measures the number of existing single-family home sales in absolute numbers and as a percentage change compared to the previous month. A high number would indicate that the housing activity may be high, leading to strong economic growth. Although a lagging indicator, existing home sales are closely watched by investors as they represent consumer demand driven by factors like interest rates, unemployment, and household income. Existing Home Sales are reported for the national overall as well as a breakdown in four regions: West, Midwest, South, and Northeast.  In September 2023, sales of pre-owned homes in the United States experienced a 2% decline compared to the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.96 million units, marking the second time (after May 2020) this figure dropped below 4 million units since October 2010. However, this result slightly exceeded market expectations, which anticipated 3.89 million units. The decline is consistent with other reports over the same period, with rising mortgage rates discouraging potential first-time buyers and preventing homeowners from selling properties acquired at lower mortgage rates. Specifically, single-family home sales saw a 1.9% decrease to 3.53 million, and co-op sales dipped by 2.3% to 430,000 units. Concurrently, the median prices for existing home sales surged by 2.8% year-on-year to 394,300 USD. Despite the significant price increase, the total housing inventory at the end of the month rose by 2.7% to 1.13 million units.  According to consensus forecasts, October's data on Existing Home Sales are expected to decrease further to 3.92 million units.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_1_17.11.png" alt="chart of US secondary market house sales" width="1200" height="540" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bullish effect on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll2">Friday 24.11. 07:00 GMT, Germany Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ (Q3)</h2> Gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the total value of goods and services produced in a country for a certain period. GDP is an important indicator of the health of an economy because it gives an overall picture of how well or poorly it is doing. If the GDP growth is higher than expected, the economy is in good shape and growing faster than expected. On the other hand, if the GDP growth is lower than expected, the economy performs weaker than anticipated. Furthermore, if the GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, it may be considered a technical recession due to contracting economic output. According to an initial estimate, the German economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter, reversing the upwardly revised 0.1% expansion in the previous three months and beating market forecasts of a 0.3% contraction. The main factor contributing to the decline in GDP was a fall in private consumption, influenced by rising interest rates and persistently high inflation. Conversely, there was growth in equipment investment over the period. On an annual basis, GDP contracted by 0.3%, in contrast to the previous period when it was unchanged and against market expectations of a 0.7% decline.  <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_2_17.11.png" alt="graph change in german gdp" width="1201" height="552" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bullish effect on the EUR, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the EUR. Impact: EUR <h2 id="heading-scroll3">Friday, 24.11. 14:45 GMT, US Composite Purchasing Managers Index PMI (November)</h2> The Composite PMI index is a monthly indicator produced by S&P Global that measures economic activity based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of around 800 companies based in the US manufacturing and service sectors. As reported by purchasing managers, the PMI provides insight into the manufacturing and service industries' activity levels. This measure provides an understanding of the state of US manufacturing and service industries, as it is assumed that purchasing managers have access to first-hand data on the performance of their companies. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The S&P Global US Composite PMI for October 2023 was adjusted slightly downward to 50.7, a decrease from the initial estimate of 51.0 and higher compared to the 50.2 recorded in the preceding two months. This updated figure suggested a modest increase in business activity among private sector firms, with manufacturers and service providers witnessing a faster rise in output despite challenging demand conditions. The ongoing decline in new orders and exports persisted, although employment levels saw growth, primarily propelled by the service sector. Regarding prices, both input and output cost inflation rates decelerated to a three-year low. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_3_17.11.png" alt="US PMI chart" width="1214" height="591" /> Source: Tradingeconomics.com A higher-than-expected reading may have a bullish effect on the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading could be bearish for the USD. Impact: USD <h2 id="heading-scroll4">Stocks to watch</h2> NVIDIA (NVDA) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 10/2023. Forecast EPS: 3.35. Positive earnings surprise in 9 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Tuesday, November 21, after the market closes.  Deere&Company (DE) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 10/2023. Forecast EPS: 7.55. Positive earnings surprise in 9 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Wednesday, November 22.  PDD Holdings DRC (PDD) announcing its earnings results for the quarter ending on 10/2023. Forecast EPS: 8.91. Positive earnings surprise in 7 out of the last 10 reports. Time: Thursday, November 23.    Santa Zvaigzne-Sproge, CFA, Head of Investment Advice Department at Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis, and opinions contained, referenced, or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement, or investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comFri, 17 Nov 2023 10:27:00 +0100Due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, the coming week will be a shorter one for US markets - closed on Thursday and closed at 13:00 on Friday. Nevertheless, among other US macroeconomic data, Existing Home Sales and Composite PMI will be released, ...How did the biggest - Warren Buffett, Michael Burry or Bill and Melinda Gates - invest in Q3?https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/how-did-the-biggest-warren-buffett-michael-burry-or-bill-and-melinda-gates-invest-in-q3https://invest.conotoxia.com/investment-research/comments/how-did-the-biggest-warren-buffett-michael-burry-or-bill-and-melinda-gates-invest-in-q3From the latest 13F report, published quarterly and showing the changes in the portfolios of the largest investment fund managers from the United States, we found out what decisions were made by the most well-known investors: Warren Buffett, Michael Burry or Bill and Melinda Gates. Let's take a look at their choices in Q3 this year and consider what their motivations might have been.<h3>Table of contents:</h3> <ol> <li><a href="#heading-scroll1">What were super investors betting on in Q3 this year?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll2">How did Warren Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway invest?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll3">How did Michael Burry, Scion Asset Management, invest?</a></li> <li><a href="#heading-scroll4">How did Bill & Melinda Gates, Foundation Trust invest?</a></li> </ol> <h2 id="heading-scroll1">What were super investors betting on in Q3 this year?</h2> If we look at the net magnitude of change by sector in Q3 this year, the majority of super investors were definitely biased towards a bear market. The most traded stocks were securities from the information technology and technology sectors, where, in total, super investors reduced the size of their positions by 1.3%. On the other hand, they were most likely to buy stocks from the commodities, consumer goods and industrial sectors. Collectively, their holdings increased by 0.66%. This shows how heavily super investors sold off stocks in Q3. It should be noted, however, that the 13F report is limited to stocks in the US market only. Hence, if any fund buys shares on European exchanges, for example, they are not included in the report. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_1_16.11.png" alt="graphic repositioning of superinvestor sectors" width="1200" height="577" /> Source: Dataroma <h2 id="heading-scroll2">How did Warren Buffett and his Berkshire Hathaway invest?</h2> Warren Buffett is known for his long-term investment approach in companies with solid fundamentals. In the third quarter of this year, his investment fund was clearly on the selling side of equities, reducing as much as 1.72% of its portfolio in the US market. Among the three largest transactions are a 10.45% reduction in its stake in oil giant Chevron Corp., the comprehensive sale of Activision Blizzard shares, which, as Buffett himself pointed out, were undertaken in the context of a possible takeover of the company by Microsoft, and the complete divestment of shares in automotive giant General Motors. In Q3 of this year, only three new companies were added to the portfolio: the media holding Liberty Media Corporation, along with a token stake in the Atlanta Braves, which is owned by the same holding company, or the purchase of radio channel provider Sirius XM Holdings, symbolic in the context of the entire portfolio. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_2_16.11.png" alt="Berkshire Hathaway's change of position in Q3" width="1095" height="675" /> Source: Dataroma Buffett currently holds the largest stock of free cash in the fund's history, with a total value of $151.97 billion. Reductions in Chevron shares, which still ranks fifth in Buffett's portfolio, can be explained by one of the first steps in the realisation of profits and declining expectations for the future of the energy sector. The sale of Activision Blizzard shares appears to be linked to the successful exit of the tech giant Microsoft's takeover of the company, as the current price is already settling around the takeover price. For regulatory reasons, the process has been protracted. In contrast, Buffett's decision to divest himself of General Motors shares was often justified by suggestions of a worsening outlook for the automotive industry in the coming years. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_3_16.11.png" alt="Berkshire Hathaway portfolio value graph" width="1200" height="972" /> Source: Gurufocus <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_4_16.11.png" alt="Activision Blizzard share chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, Blizzard, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll3">How did Michael Burry, Scion Asset Management, invest?</h2> Analysing the history of the positions taken by Michael Burry, who became famous for predicting the 2008 crisis, is fraught with a degree of difficulty, as this trader is famous for frequently changing his investment portfolio. His famous bet under Q2 of this year, with a market value of USD 1.6 billion, when he bet on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes to fall by as much as 93.6% of the portfolio's value, was closed in Q3. After the indices surged, it is estimated that Burry may have lost around USD 26.5 million on this trade. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_5_16.11.png" alt="Repositioning of the Michael Burra Fund" width="1200" height="666" /> Source: Whalewisdom Just 1.5 months after completing this transaction, at the end of Q3, Burry opened a new bet (again via options) on the decline of stocks from the semiconductor sector, betting on the decline of the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) with a value of US$47bn, which accounted for as much as 47.86% of the total portfolio value. He also purchased options on the decline of Booking Holdings Inc. worth US$7.7 million, which accounted for 7.79% of the portfolio value.  The investment calculated for the decline of the semiconductor sector appears to be linked to the growing expectations of the development of artificial intelligence. A large proportion of the SOXX fund is made up of shares in AMD, Broadcom or Nvidia, all of which are directly involved in the development of this technology, which has been reflected in a more than 50% increase in the value of the fund over the year. Burry probably expects the market to realise gains in the near term. However, we do not know whether he still has these positions open in the market. <h3><a href="https://fx.conotoxia.com/users/login/FOREX?utm_source=invest_comments&utm_medium=url_link&utm_campaign=invest_comment_16_11_2023&utm_content=link_2">Log in and take the opportunity!</a></h3> <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_6_16.11.png" alt="SOXX fund chart" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, SOXX, Daily <h2 id="heading-scroll4">How did Bill & Melinda Gates, Foundation Trust invest?</h2> In contrast to Buffett, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation opted for small purchases, selling only 10% of their holdings in Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett's investment fund, which represented 2.35% of the value of their portfolio. The foundation bought as many as 54 new positions, but their total value was only 0.5%. As a result, Bill Gates and his ex-wife sold far more than they bought. The move may be an attempt to diversify the investment portfolio against Buffett's heavily concentrated fund.  Currently, the fund's largest investment is Gates' highly sentimental Microsoft Corp. shares, which account for 31.88% of the portfolio. Second place is still occupied by Buffett's investment fund with 20.3%, and in third place is one of Canada's largest transport companies, Canadian National Railway Co., accounting for 15.3% of the total portfolio. It should be added here that Bill Gates is also the largest holder of agricultural land in the United States, which the report does not take into account. <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_7_16.11.png" alt="Repositioning of the Bill and Melinda Gates Fund" width="1151" height="675" /> Source: Dataroma <img src="https://storage.googleapis.com/media-conotoxia-com/stocks%20daily/grafika_8_16.11.png" alt="Berkshire Hathaway share price" /> Source: Conotoxia MT5, BerkshireHa, Daily   Grzegorz Dróżdż, CAI MPW, Market Analyst of Conotoxia Ltd. (Conotoxia investment service) Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 72.95% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.forex conotoxia.comThu, 16 Nov 2023 14:57:00 +0100From the latest 13F report, published quarterly and showing the changes in the portfolios of the largest investment fund managers from the United States, we found out what decisions were made by the most well-known investors: Warren Buffett, Michael Bur...